ARDLINETry the model
MD

Maryland 27 at Wisconsin 10

WIS
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYFGFGKEY PLAY
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WIS · Drive 1MISSED FG · 8 plays · 54 yds
Q1 15:00
Philip Noyes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.5%
0.0
Q1 14:57
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds to the WIS 30
73.8%
+1.4
Q1 14:20
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 45 yds to the MD 25 for a 1ST down
73.6%
-0.3
Q1 13:47
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the MD 22
75.5%
+1.9
Q1 13:10
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
75.5%
0.0
Q1 13:07
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the MD 21
75.3%
-0.2
Q1 12:24
Nathanial Vakos 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Eyan Thomas (12:31) Vakos,Nathanial field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD blocked by Thomas,Eyan (H: Bertrams,Atticus, LS: Levy,Nick), clock 12:24 recovered by WIS Vakos,Nathanial at MAR23 Vakos,Nathanial return 4 yards to the MAR19 (Wingate,Daniel). , return for 4 yds to the MD 19
75.0%
-0.3
Q1 12:24
Nathanial Vakos 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zahir Mathis (12:31) Vakos,Nathanial field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD blocked by Mathis,Zahir (H: Bertrams,Atticus, LS: Levy,Nick), clock 12:24 recovered by WIS Vakos,Nathanial at MAR23 Vakos,Nathanial return 4 yards to the MAR19 (Wingate,Daniel). , return for 4 yds to the MD 19
75.0%
0.0
MD · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 41 yds
Q1 12:19
Malik Washington pass incomplete to DeJuan Williams
71.5%
-3.5
Q1 11:56
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 26 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST down
71.5%
0.0
Q1 11:35
DeJuan Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
69.8%
-1.6
Q1 11:13
DeJuan Williams run for 8 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.5
Q1 10:29
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Kaleb Webb
69.2%
-0.1
Q1 10:24
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.
69.2%
0.0
Q1 10:12
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 2 yds to the WIS 40
69.2%
0.0
Q1 9:40
Bryce McFerson punt for 40 yds for a touchback
69.9%
+0.7
WIS · Drive 3INT · 6 plays · 5 yds
Q1 9:34
Danny O'Neil run for 8 yds to the WIS 28
73.6%
+3.7
Q1 8:57
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Lance Mason
73.3%
-0.2
Q1 8:51
Danny O'Neil run for 3 yds to the WIS 31 for a 1ST down
73.3%
0.0
Q1 8:08
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 32
73.4%
0.0
Q1 7:38
Danny O'Neil sacked by Sidney Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the WIS 25
73.4%
0.0
Q1 6:55
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Jalen Huskey return for 46 yds to the WIS 4
73.4%
0.0
MD · Drive 4TD · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q1 6:43
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the WIS 1
69.0%
-4.3
Q1 6:22
Malik Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
52.0%
-17.0
WIS · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 6:17
Philip Noyes kickoff for 56 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 22 yds to the WIS 31
54.2%
+2.2
Q1 6:08
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Vinny Anthony II
56.9%
+2.7
Q1 6:00
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Lance Mason for 4 yds to the WIS 35
56.9%
0.0
Q1 5:23
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the WIS 37
56.9%
0.0
Q1 4:43
Atticus Bertrams punt for 45 yds , Jalil Farooq returns for 1 yd to the MD 19
56.8%
-0.1
MD · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q1 4:40
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq
53.9%
-2.9
Q1 4:36
DeJuan Williams run for 2 yds to the MD 21
53.9%
0.0
Q1 3:55
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 6 yds to the MD 27
53.8%
-0.1
Q1 3:19
Bryce McFerson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 25
53.8%
0.0
WIS · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · 22 yds
Q1 3:15
Darrion Dupree run for 10 yds to the WIS 35 for a 1ST down
56.7%
+2.9
Q1 2:40
Dekel Crowdus run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
56.7%
0.0
Q1 2:06
Dilin Jones run for 7 yds to the MD 43
57.7%
+1.0
Q1 0:52
run for 23 yds to the WIS 34 fumbled, recovered by WIS Dilin Jones
58.5%
+0.8
Q1 0:28
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 13 yds to the WIS 47
55.5%
-3.0
Q1 0:11
Atticus Bertrams punt blocked by Messiah Delhomme blocked by Messiah Delhomme (00:16) Bertrams,Atticus punt 0 yards to the WIS47 blocked by Delhomme,Messiah recovered by MAR Delhomme,Messiah at WIS47, Delhomme,Messiah for 19 yards to the WIS28, End Of Play. Messiah Delhomme return for 19 yds to the WIS 28
56.3%
+0.8
MD · Drive 8TD · 5 plays · 28 yds
Q1 0:00
Malik Washington pass complete to DJ Samuels for 1 yd to the WIS 27
49.9%
-6.4
Q2 14:42
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the WIS 15 for a 1ST down
49.9%
0.0
Q2 14:22
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the WIS 9
49.9%
0.0
Q2 13:52
Malik Washington pass incomplete
49.9%
0.0
Q2 13:47
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 9 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
31.3%
-18.6
WIS · Drive 9PUNT · 10 plays · 24 yds
Q2 13:43
Philip Noyes kickoff for 59 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 20 yds to the WIS 26
32.6%
+1.3
Q2 13:34
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete short left to Dupree,Darrion thrown to WIS32 QB hurried by Reddick,Trey PENALTY MAR Roughing The Passer (Reddick,Trey) 15 yards from WIS26 to WIS41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
39.1%
+6.5
Q2 13:27
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the WIS 45
39.5%
+0.4
Q2 12:56
(13:01) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete short right to Kekahuna,Trech thrown to MAR36 PENALTY MAR Personal Foul (Jenkins,Bryce) WIS Personal Foul 30 yards from WIS45 to WIS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
39.5%
0.0
Q2 12:48
Danny O'Neil sacked by Daniel Wingate for a loss of 6 yards to the WIS 39
39.5%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 19 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST down
38.9%
-0.6
Q2 11:36
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the MD 41
40.8%
+2.0
Q2 11:02
Danny O'Neil sacked by EJ Moore Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line
40.8%
0.0
Q2 11:02
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Lance Mason
38.7%
-2.1
Q2 10:17
Atticus Bertrams punt for 50 yds for a touchback
38.7%
0.0
MD · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 22 yds
Q2 10:17
DeJuan Williams run for 2 yds to the MD 22
31.9%
-6.8
Q2 10:17
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the MD 29
31.9%
0.0
Q2 10:17
DeJuan Williams run for 12 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST down
31.9%
0.0
Q2 10:17
DeJuan Williams run for 1 yd to the MD 42
31.0%
-0.9
Q2 10:17
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak Knotts
31.0%
0.0
Q2 10:17
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak Knotts
31.0%
0.0
Q2 8:07
Bryce McFerson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 10
29.5%
-1.4
WIS · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q2 8:01
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 13
36.0%
+6.5
Q2 7:24
PENALTY WIS Illegal Snap (Cory,Ryan) 5 yards from WIS13 to WIS08. NO PLAY.
36.0%
0.0
Q2 7:13
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
36.0%
0.0
Q2 7:08
Danny O'Neil run for 11 yds to the WIS 19
36.0%
0.0
Q2 6:24
Atticus Bertrams punt for 51 yds
36.0%
0.0
MD · Drive 12FG · 8 plays · 39 yds
Q2 6:09
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 19 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST down
30.0%
-6.1
Q2 5:48
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Nolan Ray
29.3%
-0.7
Q2 5:42
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the WIS 45
29.3%
0.0
Q2 4:48
Malik Washington pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 18 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST down
28.3%
-0.9
Q2 4:30
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Leon Haughton Jr.
28.4%
0.0
Q2 4:23
Nolan Ray run for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 31
28.4%
0.0
Q2 3:43
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak Knotts
27.2%
-1.1
Q2 3:38
Sean O'Haire 49 yd FG GOOD
23.3%
-3.9
WIS · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q2 3:34
Philip Noyes kickoff for 65 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 25 yds to the WIS 25
23.5%
+0.2
Q2 3:28
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the WIS 29
27.8%
+4.3
Q2 2:52
Darrion Dupree run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 27
27.6%
-0.2
Q2 2:06
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Lance Mason for 5 yds to the WIS 32
27.5%
-0.1
Q2 1:52
Atticus Bertrams punt for 53 yds , Daniel Wingate returns for no gain to the MD 15
27.5%
0.0
MD · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q2 1:46
DeJuan Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 12
23.0%
-4.5
Q2 1:40
Malik Washington pass incomplete to DeJuan Williams
23.0%
0.0
Q2 1:32
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 10 yds to the MD 22
23.0%
0.0
Q2 1:30
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 01:30
22.0%
-1.0
Q2 1:24
Bryce McFerson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 38
22.0%
0.0
WIS · Drive 15DOWNS · 6 plays · 27 yds
Q2 1:17
Maryland Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Reddick) to the MD 44 for a 1ST down
27.8%
+5.8
Q2 1:10
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Lance Mason
29.3%
+1.5
Q2 1:03
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 9 yds to the MD 35
29.3%
0.0
Q2 0:52
Darrion Dupree run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 37
28.6%
-0.7
Q2 0:32
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 00:32
28.5%
-0.1
Q2 0:25
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the MD 35
27.5%
-0.9
MD · Drive 16FG · 7 plays · 57 yds
Q2 0:18
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 48 yds to the WIS 17 for a 1ST down
20.6%
-7.0
Q2 0:18
Timeout Maryland, clock 00:18
19.6%
-1.0
Q2 0:13
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak Knotts
19.5%
-0.2
Q2 0:07
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 9 yds to the WIS 8
19.5%
0.0
Q2 0:07
Timeout Maryland, clock 00:07
20.0%
+0.5
Q2 0:02
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Dorian Fleming
20.0%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Sean O'Haire 26 yd FG GOOD
12.2%
-7.8
MD · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 15:00
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
15.7%
+3.5
Q3 14:57
DeJuan Williams run for 4 yds to the MD 29
13.7%
-2.0
Q3 14:30
DeJuan Williams run for 1 yd to the MD 30
13.4%
-0.3
Q3 13:49
Malik Washington pass incomplete to DeJuan Williams
13.4%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Bryce McFerson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MD 47 , Tyrell Henry returns for 35 yds to the MD 47
13.4%
0.0
WIS · Drive 18FG · 8 plays · 31 yds
Q3 13:25
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 12 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST down
16.6%
+3.2
Q3 13:03
Darrion Dupree run for 7 yds to the MD 28
16.6%
-0.1
Q3 12:23
Tyrell Henry pass incomplete to Eugene Hilton Jr.
15.8%
-0.8
Q3 12:17
Danny O'Neil run for 9 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST down
15.8%
0.0
Q3 11:40
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the MD 15
15.6%
-0.1
Q3 10:59
Darrion Dupree run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 16
15.7%
+0.1
Q3 10:16
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Trech Kekahuna
15.7%
0.0
Q3 10:12
Nathanial Vakos 33 yd FG GOOD
23.1%
+7.4
MD · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · -10 yds
Q3 10:12
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
21.6%
-1.5
Q3 10:07
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Leon Haughton Jr.
19.5%
-2.2
Q3 10:03
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Nolan Ray
19.3%
-0.1
Q3 9:57
Malik Washington sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 10 yards to the MD 15
19.3%
0.0
Q3 9:21
Bryce McFerson punt for 46 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for no gain to the WIS 39
19.3%
0.0
WIS · Drive 20PUNT · 7 plays · 13 yds
Q3 9:12
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Grant Stec for 5 yds to the WIS 44
22.4%
+3.0
Q3 8:44
Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds to the WIS 47
22.4%
0.0
Q3 8:09
Danny O'Neil run for 5 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST down
22.3%
-0.1
Q3 7:48
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the MD 47
23.3%
+1.0
Q3 7:05
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the MD 45
22.9%
-0.4
Q3 6:15
Danny O'Neil run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 48
22.9%
0.0
Q3 5:45
Atticus Bertrams punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MD 5
22.9%
0.0
MD · Drive 21PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 5:34
Malik Washington pass complete to DeJuan Williams for 4 yds to the MD 9
16.7%
-6.2
Q3 5:20
DeJuan Williams run for 3 yds to the MD 12
15.8%
-0.9
Q3 4:34
Malik Washington run for no gain to the MD 12
14.5%
-1.2
Q3 4:05
Timeout Maryland, clock 04:05
12.6%
-1.9
Q3 3:58
Bryce McFerson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 47
12.6%
0.0
WIS · Drive 22PUNT · 12 plays · 13 yds
Q3 3:54
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
19.5%
+6.8
Q3 2:57
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 7 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST down
19.5%
0.0
Q3 2:41
Danny O'Neil sacked by Joel Starlings for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 46
20.3%
+0.8
Q3 2:04
Darrion Dupree run for 17 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST down
20.3%
0.0
Q3 1:30
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the MD 25
20.1%
-0.2
Q3 0:49
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 3 yds to the MD 22
19.4%
-0.7
Q3 0:00
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the MD 20
17.8%
-1.6
Q4 14:41
Darrion Dupree run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 21
17.3%
-0.4
Q4 13:49
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Darrion Dupree for no gain to the MD 21
14.5%
-2.9
Q4 13:13
Danny O'Neil sacked by Cam Rice for a loss of 19 yards to the MD 40
14.5%
0.0
Q4 12:26
Wisconsin Penalty, Delay Of Game (Yards) declined
14.1%
-0.4
Q4 12:25
punt for 39 yds
14.1%
0.0
MD · Drive 23TD · 6 plays · 99 yds
Q4 12:13
Malik Washington pass complete to DeJuan Williams for 10 yds to the MD 11 for a 1ST down
11.0%
-3.1
Q4 11:45
DeJuan Williams run for 15 yds to the MD 26 for a 1ST down
11.0%
0.0
Q4 11:04
DeJuan Williams run for 2 yds to the MD 28
11.0%
0.0
Q4 10:22
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 1 yd to the MD 29
10.9%
-0.1
Q4 9:40
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 9 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST down
10.6%
-0.3
Q4 9:03
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 62 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
6.7%
-3.9
WIS · Drive 24MISSED FG · 9 plays · 35 yds
Q4 9:00
Philip Noyes kickoff for 53 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 19 yds to the WIS 31
6.7%
0.0
Q4 8:47
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 4 yds to the WIS 35
8.6%
+1.9
Q4 8:29
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 9 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST down
8.6%
0.0
Q4 7:57
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 7 yds to the MD 49
8.4%
-0.2
Q4 7:21
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 23 yds to the MD 26 for a 1ST down
8.4%
0.0
Q4 6:51
Danny O'Neil sacked by Keyshawn Flowers for a loss of 8 yards to the MD 34
8.9%
+0.5
Q4 6:28
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Trech Kekahuna
8.7%
-0.2
Q4 6:23
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Grant Stec
8.8%
+0.1
Q4 6:18
Nathanial Vakos 51 yd FG MISSED
8.8%
0.0
MD · Drive 25PUNT · 5 plays · 16 yds
Q4 6:06
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 12 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST down
6.8%
-2.0
Q4 5:28
DeJuan Williams run for 6 yds to the WIS 48
6.8%
0.0
Q4 4:40
DeJuan Williams run for 1 yd to the WIS 47
6.6%
-0.2
Q4 3:57
Malik Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line
6.6%
0.0
Q4 3:12
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 yds for a touchback
6.6%
0.0
WIS · Drive 26TD · 11 plays · 80 yds
Q4 3:07
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the WIS 25
8.2%
+1.6
Q4 2:30
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 11 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST down
8.2%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 15 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST down
8.2%
0.0
Q4 1:50
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 8 yds to the MD 41
8.0%
-0.2
Q4 1:31
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
8.2%
+0.2
Q4 1:21
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Grant Stec
8.2%
0.0
Q4 1:17
Darrion Dupree run for 5 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST down
8.2%
0.0
Q4 0:28
PENALTY MAR Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MAR36 to MAR31. NO PLAY.
8.2%
0.0
Q4 0:28
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 12 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST down
8.5%
+0.3
Q4 0:28
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Eugene Hilton Jr. for 6 yds to the MD 13
8.5%
0.0
Q4 0:28
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 13 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
13.3%
+4.8
MD · Drive 27Uncategorized · 2 plays · 3 yds
Q4 0:28
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.5%
-0.7
Q4 0:24
DeJuan Williams run for 3 yds to the MD 28
9.6%
-2.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:47
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 9 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q1 6:22
Malik Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
-17
FG · Q2 0:00
Sean O'Haire 26 yd FG GOOD
-7.8
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com