ARDLINETry the model
IOWA

Iowa 38 at Rutgers 28

RUTG
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · SHI Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDKEY PLAYTDTDTDKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
RUTG · Drive 1TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 14:48
J. Scullion kick for 65 yds,K. Wetjen return for 100 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
36.4%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Drew Stevens kickoff for 61 yds
30.8%
-5.7
Q1 14:26
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds to the RUTG 30
30.6%
-0.2
Q1 13:56
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 21 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST down
30.6%
0.0
Q1 13:35
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
32.0%
+1.4
Q1 12:40
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 4 yds to the IOWA 45
36.3%
+4.3
Q1 12:39
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 40 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST down
36.1%
-0.2
Q1 12:39
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
53.3%
+17.2
IOWA · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q1 12:39
Jack Scullion kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
50.8%
-2.5
Q1 12:32
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Seth Anderson
46.9%
-3.9
Q1 12:14
Kaden Wetjen run for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 21
46.9%
0.0
Q1 11:43
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Sam Phillips
46.9%
0.0
Q1 11:34
Rhys Dakin punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RUTG 37
46.9%
0.0
RUTG · Drive 3TD · 12 plays · 63 yds
Q1 11:25
Antwan Raymond run for 6 yds to the RUTG 43
51.1%
+4.1
Q1 10:48
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the RUTG 46
51.9%
+0.9
Q1 10:27
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the RUTG 48 for a 1ST down
51.7%
-0.3
Q1 9:56
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the IOWA 49
51.9%
+0.3
Q1 9:12
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 8 yds to the IOWA 41 for a 1ST down
53.0%
+1.1
Q1 8:30
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the IOWA 36
53.3%
+0.3
Q1 7:44
Ja'shon Benjamin run for 2 yds to the IOWA 34
53.3%
0.0
Q1 7:20
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 6 yds to the IOWA 28 for a 1ST down
53.1%
-0.3
Q1 7:08
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Kenny Fletcher Jr.
53.3%
+0.3
Q1 6:40
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 5 yds to the IOWA 23
53.3%
0.0
Q1 6:04
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 19 yds to the IOWA 4 for a 1ST down
53.3%
-0.1
Q1 6:03
A. Kaliakmanis run for 4 yds for a TD (J. Patel KICK)
67.6%
+14.4
IOWA · Drive 4TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 6:03
Jack Scullion kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
66.6%
-1.0
Q1 5:43
PENALTY RU Offside (Griffin,Keshon) 5 yards from IOWA25 to IOWA30. NO PLAY.
61.7%
-4.8
Q1 5:24
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST down
61.7%
0.0
Q1 4:45
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 8 yds to the IOWA 45
61.7%
0.0
Q1 4:03
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 25 yds to the RUTG 30 for a 1ST down
60.4%
-1.4
Q1 3:30
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 16 yds to the RUTG 14 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Personal Foul (Jett Elad) to the RUTG 7 for a 1ST down
59.2%
-1.2
Q1 3:06
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the RUTG 6
59.2%
0.0
Q1 2:24
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
44.5%
-14.7
RUTG · Drive 5TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 2:24
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
47.1%
+2.6
Q1 2:12
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the RUTG 34
51.3%
+4.2
Q1 1:36
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST down
51.3%
0.0
Q1 1:36
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the RUTG 45
52.0%
+0.6
Q1 0:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 37 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST down
52.6%
+0.6
Q2 14:49
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the IOWA 14
53.9%
+1.3
Q2 13:34
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 13 yds to the IOWA 1 for a 1ST down
53.9%
0.0
Q2 12:51
Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain to the IOWA 1
53.9%
0.0
Q2 12:29
Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain to the IOWA 1
53.9%
0.0
Q2 12:07
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
68.4%
+0.9
IOWA · Drive 6TD · 9 plays · 73 yds
Q2 12:08
Jack Scullion kickoff for 62 yds , Kaden Wetjen return for 24 yds to the IOWA 27
67.5%
+13.6
Q2 11:58
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 34
62.0%
-6.5
Q2 11:20
Mark Gronowski run for 11 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST down
62.0%
0.0
Q2 10:23
Jaziun Patterson run for 9 yds to the RUTG 46
61.2%
-0.8
Q2 9:41
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 21 yds to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST down
60.6%
-0.6
Q2 9:20
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the RUTG 24
60.0%
-0.6
Q2 8:44
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short middle thrown to RU20 QB hurried by Thompson,Jordan and Djabome,Dariel PENALTY RU Holding (Mascoe,Bo) 10 yards from RU24 to RU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
60.0%
0.0
Q2 8:34
Jaziun Patterson run for 12 yds to the RUTG 2 for a 1ST down
60.0%
0.0
Q2 8:00
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
43.5%
-16.5
RUTG · Drive 7MISSED FG · 16 plays · 56 yds
Q2 8:00
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
46.1%
+2.6
Q2 7:54
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
52.6%
+6.5
Q2 7:48
(07:48) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep middle to Strong,Ian thrown to IOWA35 QB hurried by Allen,Brian PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (Lee,Deshaun) 15 yards from RU25 to RU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
52.6%
0.0
Q2 7:39
Ja'shon Benjamin run for 2 yds to the RUTG 42
53.5%
+0.9
Q2 6:49
Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain to the RUTG 42
53.5%
0.0
Q2 6:44
(06:44) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep right to Sheffield,DT thrown to IOWA20 PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (Lutmer,Zach) 15 yards from RU42 to IOWA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
53.3%
-0.3
Q2 6:31
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the IOWA 40
55.1%
+1.8
Q2 5:58
Antwan Raymond run for 6 yds to the IOWA 34
55.2%
+0.1
Q2 5:19
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST down
54.9%
-0.2
Q2 4:44
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
55.9%
+0.9
Q2 4:33
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 12 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST down
55.9%
0.0
Q2 4:00
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 21
55.9%
0.0
Q2 2:45
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 7 yds to the IOWA 14
56.1%
+0.3
Q2 2:45
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
55.9%
-0.2
Q2 2:45
PENALTY RU Delay Of Game 5 yards from IOWA14 to IOWA19. NO PLAY.
55.5%
-0.4
Q2 2:40
Jai Patel 37 yd FG MISSED
55.5%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 8PUNT · 9 plays · 27 yds
Q2 2:31
Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the IOWA 26
47.3%
-8.2
Q2 2:09
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 29
47.2%
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Rutgers, clock 02:00
46.2%
-1.0
Q2 1:54
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 11 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST down
46.2%
0.0
Q2 1:39
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 2 yds to the IOWA 42
45.2%
-0.9
Q2 1:25
Timeout Iowa, clock 01:25
44.1%
-1.1
Q2 1:23
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 47
44.9%
+0.8
Q2 1:21
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to DJ Vonnahme
44.1%
-0.8
Q2 1:14
Rhys Dakin punt for 42 yds
45.3%
+1.2
RUTG · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 1:06
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd to the RUTG 12
54.2%
+8.8
Q2 1:06
Timeout Iowa, clock 01:06
54.2%
0.0
Q2 1:01
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the RUTG 15
54.2%
0.0
Q2 0:48
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds to the RUTG 20
54.2%
0.0
Q2 0:14
Timeout Rutgers, clock 00:14
53.8%
-0.4
Q2 0:00
Jakob Anderson punt for 37 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 43 yds to the RUTG 14
53.8%
0.0
RUTG · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q3 15:00
Drew Stevens kickoff for 61 yds
48.0%
-5.8
Q3 15:00
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 19
54.5%
+6.5
Q3 15:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 7 yds to the RUTG 26
54.5%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
54.5%
0.0
Q3 13:46
Jakob Anderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 35
54.2%
-0.3
IOWA · Drive 11MISSED FG · 8 plays · 43 yds
Q3 13:35
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the IOWA 43
48.0%
-6.2
Q3 13:04
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 44
46.6%
-1.5
Q3 12:22
Mark Gronowski run for 7 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST down
46.0%
-0.5
Q3 11:17
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 24 yds to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST down
45.5%
-0.5
Q3 11:01
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Zach Ortwerth
45.4%
-0.1
Q3 10:53
Terrell Washington Jr. run for no gain to the RUTG 25
45.4%
0.0
Q3 9:54
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 3 yds to the RUTG 22
45.9%
+0.6
Q3 9:37
Drew Stevens 40 yd FG MISSED
46.7%
+0.8
RUTG · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q3 9:32
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Colin Weber
55.2%
+8.5
Q3 8:50
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 6 yds to the RUTG 28
55.2%
0.0
Q3 8:49
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
55.2%
0.0
Q3 8:37
Jakob Anderson punt for 68 yds
54.8%
-0.3
IOWA · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q3 8:18
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 5
48.6%
-6.3
Q3 7:51
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 7
48.6%
0.0
Q3 7:07
Mark Gronowski sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 3
48.6%
0.0
Q3 6:30
Rhys Dakin punt for 54 yds
48.6%
0.0
RUTG · Drive 14MISSED FG · 6 plays · 46 yds
Q3 6:21
Antwan Raymond run for no gain to the RUTG 43
56.3%
+7.7
Q3 5:28
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 43 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST down
56.3%
0.0
Q3 4:55
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the IOWA 12
57.6%
+1.3
Q3 4:38
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
57.6%
0.0
Q3 4:08
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 1 yd to the IOWA 11
58.0%
+0.3
Q3 3:46
Jai Patel 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ethan Hurkett (03:46) Patel,Jai field goal attempt from 29 yards NO GOOD blocked by Hurkett,Ethan (H: McCann,Riley, LS: OConnor,Michael), clock 03:46 recovered by RU Thompson,Jordan at IOWA23, End Of Play.
57.6%
-0.4
IOWA · Drive 15FG · 11 plays · 69 yds
Q3 3:37
Mark Gronowski run for 10 yds to the IOWA 33 for a 1ST down
49.1%
-8.5
Q3 3:11
Timeout Iowa, clock 03:11
49.1%
0.0
Q3 3:02
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 37
49.1%
0.0
Q3 2:23
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 41
48.9%
-0.2
Q3 1:33
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 17 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST down
47.7%
-1.2
Q3 0:51
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 6 yds to the RUTG 36
46.4%
-1.2
Q3 0:00
Nathan McNeil run for 10 yds to the RUTG 26 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Cam Miller) to the RUTG 13 for a 1ST down
46.4%
0.0
Q4 14:52
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete
46.4%
0.0
Q4 14:42
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the RUTG 8
47.4%
+0.9
Q4 14:05
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Zach Ortwerth
47.4%
0.0
Q4 14:02
Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD
37.6%
-9.8
RUTG · Drive 16TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:02
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
38.8%
+1.2
Q4 13:48
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 10 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST down
47.2%
+8.4
Q4 13:22
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 26 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q4 12:37
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the IOWA 27 for a 1ST down
47.3%
+0.1
Q4 12:13
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
47.3%
0.0
Q4 11:59
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the IOWA 17 for a 1ST down
47.3%
0.0
Q4 11:21
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 7 yds to the IOWA 10
47.3%
0.0
Q4 10:49
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST down
46.7%
-0.6
Q4 10:13
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the IOWA 1
45.4%
-1.3
Q4 9:44
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
74.8%
+29.4
IOWA · Drive 17TD · 9 plays · 80 yds
Q4 9:34
Jack Scullion kickoff for 50 yds , Terrell Washington Jr. return for 5 yds to the IOWA 20 Terrell Washington Jr. fumbled, recovered by IOWA Terrell Washington Jr.
73.4%
-1.5
Q4 9:03
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 11 yds to the IOWA 31 for a 1ST down
65.8%
-7.6
Q4 8:56
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 36
65.8%
0.0
Q4 8:31
Mark Gronowski sacked by Cam Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 33
65.9%
+0.1
Q4 7:55
(07:55) Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short right to Gill,Jacob thrown to IOWA45 PENALTY RU Holding (Salaam,Al-Shadee) 10 yards from IOWA33 to IOWA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
65.9%
0.0
Q4 7:47
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 47
65.1%
-0.8
Q4 6:33
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Dayton Howard for 42 yds to the RUTG 11 for a 1ST down
64.4%
-0.7
Q4 6:14
Mark Gronowski run for 9 yds to the RUTG 2
63.2%
-1.1
Q4 5:39
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
28.1%
-35.1
RUTG · Drive 18INT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q4 5:39
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
30.1%
+2.0
Q4 5:35
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
42.4%
+12.3
Q4 5:24
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the RUTG 27
42.0%
-0.4
Q4 4:18
Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted Jaxon Rexroth return for no gain to the RUTG 35
42.5%
+0.5
IOWA · Drive 19TD · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q4 4:06
Kamari Moulton run for 11 yds to the RUTG 24 for a 1ST down
27.1%
-15.4
Q4 3:49
Mark Gronowski run for 9 yds to the RUTG 15
27.1%
0.0
Q4 3:08
Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds to the RUTG 11 for a 1ST down
27.1%
0.0
Q4 2:22
Kamari Moulton run for 9 yds to the RUTG 2
25.3%
-1.8
Q4 2:22
Timeout Rutgers, clock 02:22
23.4%
-1.9
Q4 2:16
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the RUTG 1 for a 1ST down
23.4%
0.0
Q4 2:16
Timeout Rutgers, clock 02:16
23.4%
0.0
Q4 2:14
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
10.9%
-12.4
RUTG · Drive 20DOWNS · 8 plays · 17 yds
Q4 2:14
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
11.0%
+0.1
Q4 2:10
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
11.2%
+0.2
Q4 2:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 24 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST down
11.1%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Rutgers, clock 02:00
11.0%
-0.1
Q4 1:56
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
10.7%
-0.3
Q4 1:48
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Ethan Hurkett for a loss of 7 yards to the RUTG 42
10.7%
0.0
Q4 1:34
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
10.7%
0.0
Q4 1:28
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
10.7%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 21END OF GAME · 2 plays · -6 yds
Q4 1:15
M. Gronowski takes a knee
10.6%
-0.1
Q4 0:00
M. Gronowski takes a knee
10.5%
-0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:39
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-35.1
TD · Q4 9:44
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+29.4
TD · Q1 12:39
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+17.2
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com