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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · M. Gronowski takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:03: A. Kaliakmanis run for 4 yds for a TD (J. Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:24: Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +0.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:07: Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — IOWA win probability +0.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:00: Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:02: Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +2.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 6IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:34IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 21, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it54.9%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q2 2:40RUTG 4th & 11 at IOWA 19, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snapGo for it33.9%−1.125% to convertField goalTheir call35.0%77% to makePunt29.2%−5.8average punt
- Q2 1:14IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 47, up 8Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 20, down 8Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 32.6% before the snapGo for it31.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%−2.2average punt
- Q3 13:46RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it31.9%−1.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.4%average punt
- Q3 9:37IOWA 4th & 7 at RUTG 22, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snapGo for it68.5%−0.636% to convertField goalTheir call69.1%72% to makePunt62.4%−6.7average punt
- Q3 8:37RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 28, down 8Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it31.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:30IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 3, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it65.4%−3.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.2%average punt
- Q3 3:46RUTG 4th & 7 at IOWA 11, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snapGo for it27.8%−0.932% to convertField goalTheir call28.7%87% to makePunt17.2%−11.5average punt
- Q4 14:02IOWA 4th & 5 at RUTG 8, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.1%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call77.4%90% to makePunt68.8%−8.5average punt
- Q4 1:28RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 42, down 8Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:48IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.7%97% to makeGo for two54.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4747% → 47%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
47.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 21 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
47.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 4 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+40
47.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 40 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5853% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3TD12 plays · 63 yds · 5:2247% → 47%
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
46.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 8 yds to the IOWA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
46.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
46.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 6 yds to the IOWA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
46.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 5 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+19
46.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 19 yds to the IOWA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1955% → 58%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.9%
PENALTY RU Offside (Griffin,Keshon) 5 yards from IOWA25 to IOWA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
44.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 8 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+25
43.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 25 yds to the RUTG 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
43.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 16 yds to the RUTG 14 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Personal Foul (Jett Elad) to the RUTG 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0544% → 44%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
43.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the RUTG 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+37
44.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 37 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:5859% → 63%
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+21
38.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 21 yds to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
38.1%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short middle thrown to RU20 QB hurried by Thompson,Jordan and Djabome,Dariel PENALTY RU Holding (Mascoe,Bo) 10 yards from RU24 to RU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7MISSED FG16 plays · 56 yds · 5:1439% → 37%
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
38.5%
(07:48) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep middle to Strong,Ian thrown to IOWA35 QB hurried by Allen,Brian PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (Lee,Deshaun) 15 yards from RU25 to RU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
38.5%
(06:44) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep right to Sheffield,DT thrown to IOWA20 PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (Lutmer,Zach) 15 yards from RU42 to IOWA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
41.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 12 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+7
40.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 7 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 1:1764% → 65%
RUTGDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0635% → 34%
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+43
33.5%
Jakob Anderson punt for 37 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 43 yds to the RUTG 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1435% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
35.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
35.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 7 yds to the RUTG 26Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
33.3%
Jakob Anderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11MISSED FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:5868% → 69%
RUTGDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5533% → 31%
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
32.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 6 yds to the RUTG 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4869% → 67%
Q3 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 7
-4
31.9%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14MISSED FG6 plays · 46 yds · 2:3534% → 30%
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+43
32.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 43 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+1
32.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 1 yd to the IOWA 11Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
29.9%
Jai Patel 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ethan Hurkett (03:46) Patel,Jai field goal attempt from 29 yards NO GOOD blocked by Hurkett,Ethan (H: McCann,Riley, LS: OConnor,Michael), clock 03:46 recovered by RU Thompson,Jordan at IOWA23, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FG11 plays · 69 yds · 4:3573% → 77%
Q3 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+17
24.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 17 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
22.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 6 yds to the RUTG 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+23
22.0%
Nathan McNeil run for 10 yds to the RUTG 26 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Cam Miller) to the RUTG 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0426% → 30%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 10 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
25.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 26 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
29.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the IOWA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
30.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the IOWA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
30.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 7 yds to the IOWA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2481% → 91%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
18.7%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 11 yds to the IOWA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-3
16.8%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Cam Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
15.4%
(07:55) Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short right to Gill,Jacob thrown to IOWA45 PENALTY RU Holding (Salaam,Al-Shadee) 10 yards from IOWA33 to IOWA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+42
11.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Dayton Howard for 42 yds to the RUTG 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1715% → 13%
IOWADrive 19TD8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5292% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 17 yds · 0:427% → 5%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-2.8
FG · Q4 14:02
Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
TD · Q2 8:00
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-1.3