Try the model
ILL

Illinois 10 at Indiana 63

IU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:01 · Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+29.8Pregame prior+3.2Blowout margin+17.5Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:41: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +3.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:05: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +6.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:17: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 43 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +9.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: David Olano 46 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +7.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:46ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43IU 4th & 8 at IU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:20IU 4th & 1 at IU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:41IU 4th & 12 at IU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:46ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:36ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:23ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:59ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 19, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:16ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 21, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:26IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:24ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:41IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:05IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:17IU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:09IU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:38IU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:02IU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:09IU Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:38IU Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0334% → 34%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
65.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 11 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-7
65.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Rolijah Hardy for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 38Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
65.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5766% → 65%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
65.8%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-9
65.8%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Leon Lowery Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 17Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+4
65.5%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the IU 21Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+9
65.3%
Quinn Warren punt for 52 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 9 yds to the ILL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5235% → 32%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
65.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+1
65.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 33Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+11
67.7%
D'Angelo Ponds 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nico Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4333% → 35%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
67.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
64.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 59 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1765% → 70%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
65.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 14 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
65.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
65.7%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
65.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
65.6%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
50
+39
66.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 39 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
69.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4632% → 31%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
68.4%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 24Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
69.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Isaiah Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
69.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the IU 17 Illinois Penalty, Defensive Holding (TJ McMillen) to the IU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5870% → 69%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
70.1%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 46Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
69.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Omar Cooper Jr.Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
69.0%
Quinn Warren punt for 52 yds, downed at the ILL 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2930% → 29%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
69.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the ILL 3Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 3
-1
70.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 2Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 2
-1
70.6%
Altmyer, Luke pass complete to Feagin, Kaden for 12 yards to the ILL14, PENALTY ILL holding (Priestly, Melvin) 1 yards to the ILL1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+8
70.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 8 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
71.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 47 yds, downed at the IU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2971% → 79%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
71.1%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
71.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 4
50
+26
71.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 26 yds to the ILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
72.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 9 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Miles Scott) to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
72.1%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for no gain to the ILL 6Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
72.4%
Indiana Penalty, False Start (Carter Smith) to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
78.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1923% → 22%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
76.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
77.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Mario Landino and Stephen Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
78.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
78.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1080% → 90%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
79.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the IU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
79.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 21 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
80.5%
Roman Hemby run for 10 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
80.8%
Indiana Penalty, False Start (Drew Evans) to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+43
90.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 43 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3712% → 10%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
88.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
88.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kellan Wyatt and Mario Landino for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 22Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
89.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0391% → 98%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.2%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the IU 37Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
91.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
92.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 6 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+23
93.1%
Kaelon Black run for 23 yds to the ILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
93.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 8 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
93.4%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
93.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
97.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:052% → 11%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
97.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 10 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
97.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 14 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
97.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 16 yds to the IU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
96.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+46
89.0%
David Olano 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1595% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.2%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
95.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 10 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
96.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 11 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
96.9%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+40
98.5%
Kaelon Black run for 40 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:342% → 1%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
98.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Mario Landino for a loss of 9 yards to the ILL 19Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+27
98.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 57 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 27 yds to the ILL 46 Illinois Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Tyler Strain) to the ILL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:4199% → 100%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 5 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
99.1%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 5 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
99.2%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
99.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the ILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.3%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
99.3%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ILL 5Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 5 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 24Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 4:59100% → 100%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.5%
Kaelon Black run for 11 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-5
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Joe Barna for a loss of 5 yards to the IU 43Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+11
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 11 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
99.7%
Khobie Martin run for 7 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.7%
Khobie Martin run for 4 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Khobie Martin run for 31 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for no gain to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-7
99.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 4:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.8%
Khobie Martin run for 12 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 9 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 7 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
Solomon Vanhorse run for 8 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Solomon Vanhorse run for 4 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 2 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 17 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Malik Elzy for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Malik Elzy for 7 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Ethan Hampton pass intercepted Amare Ferrell return for no gain to the IU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 45 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 2 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Khobie Martin run for 3 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+12
100.0%
Solomon Vanhorse run for 12 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
100.0%
Alberto Mendoza run for 14 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Solomon Vanhorse run for 3 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
100.0%
Khobie Martin run for 5 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+6
100.0%
Grant Wilson run for 6 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:17
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 43 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+9.4
FG · Q2 0:00
David Olano 46 yd FG GOOD
-7.8
TD · Q2 11:05
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com