2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Washington takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:39: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Devin Ellison for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:16: Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:38: Zevi Eckhaus run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:49: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:34: Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted Alex McLaughlin return for 47 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +7.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 5:21WSU 4th & 10 at WASH 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call12.3%77% to makePunt10.7%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:25WASH 4th & 18 at WSU 33, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.913% to convertField goalTheir call86.4%49% to makePunt85.3%−1.1average punt
- Q3 4:28WSU 4th & 4 at WASH 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%47% to convertField goal11.2%−0.180% to makePunt7.9%−3.5average punt
- Q4 11:34WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.6%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:18WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:48WSU 4th & 21 at WSU 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 0:15WSU 4th & 21 at WSU 14, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 10:53WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:47WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:05WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.9%97% to makeGo for two14.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:02WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:39WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.3%97% to makeGo for two17.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:16WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:38WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.3%97% to makeGo for two17.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:49WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.9%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 11:34WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:08WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:40WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0793% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
7.4%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Buddha Peleti for a loss of 8 yards to the WASH 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+25
7.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 25 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
7.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+5
7.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 5 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
8.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 29 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2INT9 plays · 32 yds · 4:419% → 10%
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
9.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 3 yds to the WSU 42Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
9.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 11 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
9.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 3 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-27
10.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted Alex McLaughlin return for 27 yds to the WASH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD5 plays · 53 yds · 2:1291% → 92%
Q1 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
9.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 4 yds to the WSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:369% → 14%
Q1 2:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
9.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 5 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
9.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Devin Ellison for 18 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
9.6%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lester,Jonny) 5 yards from WASH45 to WASH50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
9.5%
(00:01) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete deep left to Wright,Landon thrown to WASH20 PENALTY WASH Offside declined WASH Pass Interference (Clark,Rahshawn) 15 yards from WASH47 to WASH32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
10.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 8 yds to the WASH 12Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
13.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Beau Baker for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5788% → 91%
WSUDrive 6FG11 plays · 56 yds · 4:3610% → 12%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
9.5%
(10:01) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass complete short right to Wright,Landon caught at WSU27, for 3 yards to the WSU28 (Dillard-Allen,Rylon) PENALTY WASH Holding (Holmes,Vincent) 10 yards from WSU25 to WSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
9.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 5 yds to the WSU 40Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+17
9.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 17 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
10.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Devin Ellison for 26 yds to the WASH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7FG15 plays · 42 yds · 4:4388% → 90%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
11.9%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Isaac Terrell for a loss of 6 yards to the WASH 19Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+26
12.2%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 26 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+18
11.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 18 yds to the WSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+7
10.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Audric Harris for 7 yds to the WSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-9
11.0%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Parker McKenna for a loss of 9 yards to the WSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1510% → 20%
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
10.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 16 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
10.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 9 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
11.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 15 yds to the WASH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
11.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 12 yds to the WASH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
20.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Devin Ellison for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1386% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2910% → 25%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Wright for 4 yds to the WSU 29Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+48
9.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 48 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
11.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 8 yds to the WASH 15Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+5
10.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Maxwell Woods for 5 yds to the WASH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
11.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 3 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
11.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 8 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.3%
(02:56) No Huddle Eckhaus,Zevi rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WASH02 (Davis,Elinneus) PENALTY WASH Offside (Robinson,Dylan). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4083% → 96%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 9 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
16.0%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
15.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 15 yds to the WSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13INT TD8 plays · 16 yds · 1:089% → 2%
WSUDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.9%
Zevi Eckhaus run for 3 yds to the WSU 28 Zevi Eckhaus fumbled, recovered by WASH Bryce ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0899% → 100%
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
1.0%
(11:14) Boston,Denzel rush right for 1 yard gain to the WSU27 (Sandjo,Mike), out of bounds PENALTY WASH Holding (DeGraaf,Decker) 10 yards from WSU28 to WSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+34
0.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT13 plays · 14 yds · 5:120% → 0%
Q4 9:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
0.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 11 yds to the WSU 31Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
0.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 8 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+9
0.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carter Pabst for 9 yds to the WSU 48Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
0.1%
Ryan Harris punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
0.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
0.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 9 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+59
0.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Omari Evans for 59 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
0.1%
(02:00) PENALTY WSU Illegal Snap (Dieu,Brock) 5 yards from WSU30 to WSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-9
0.1%
Julian Dugger sacked by Armon Parker for a loss of 9 yards to the WSU 14Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
0.1%
Ryan Harris punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:38
Zevi Eckhaus run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q4 12:49
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q3 10:39
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Devin Ellison for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
+8.8