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MINN

Minnesota 14 at California 27

CAL
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:28 · Michael Kern punt for 43 yds , Logan Loya returns for no gain to the MINN 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Offense timeouts−14.3Defense timeouts−15.0Home team on offense+6.9Pregame prior−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Time remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:43: Cam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick) — MINN win probability +5.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 0:20: Mason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick) — MINN win probability +11.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q4 6:55: Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick) — CAL win probability +38.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55: Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — MINN win probability +11.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:10: Chase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal — CAL win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:40CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:39CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:55MINN 4th & 22 at MINN 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17CAL 4th & 9 at MINN 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:43MINN 4th & 13 at CAL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:21CAL 4th & 2 at MINN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:28CAL 4th & 26 at CAL 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−5.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:42MINN 4th & 10 at CAL 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:10CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−4.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:46MINN 4th & 8 at CAL 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:10CAL 4th & 14 at MINN 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:27MINN 4th & 19 at MINN 27, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:54CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:43MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:55CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:1537% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
36.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Defensive pass interference (John Nestor) to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
36.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
35.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
35.5%
Michael Kern punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1465% → 67%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.2%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MINN 23Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
34.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 17 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.2%
Cam Davis run for no gain to the MINN 40Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
33.7%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
33.2%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
33.3%
Tom Weston punt for 54 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 6 yds to the CAL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2333% → 31%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
33.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 18 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
32.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
32.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 32Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+11
31.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jeffrey Johnson for 11 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
32.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 3
50
0
32.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 3
50
-5
32.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Matt Kingsbury and Nate Becker for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
30.9%
Michael Kern punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0969% → 70%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
31.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MINN 6Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+4
30.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the MINN 10Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
30.4%
Cam Davis run for no gain to the MINN 10Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+52
30.2%
Tom Weston punt for 42 yds California Penalty, Offensive holding (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2430% → 31%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mark HamperSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
29.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+16
29.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 16 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
29.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+18
29.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 18 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
29.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 22 yds to the MINN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
Jacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:5368% → 68%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
31.6%
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-15
30.7%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith Minnesota Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Frank Bierman) to the MINN 21Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 22
OWN 21
0
31.3%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon TracySimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 22
OWN 21
0
31.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan McCullochSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 22
OWN 21
0
31.7%
Tom Weston punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3528% → 26%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
28.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 4
50
-5
27.9%
California Penalty, false start (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-10
27.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for no gain to the CAL 45 California Penalty, Offensive holding (Leon Bell) to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+20
26.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 20 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
27.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the MINN 44Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
27.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason MiniSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
26.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
25.8%
Michael Kern punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8Uncategorized
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:1970% → 71%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+27
30.2%
Fame Ijeboi run for 27 yds to the MINN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
29.1%
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
28.6%
A.J. Turner run for 9 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
28.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Koi Perich for 19 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
27.5%
Fame Ijeboi run for 6 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-9
26.7%
Koi Perich sacked by Aaron Hampton for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 42Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
28.6%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington, broken up by Isaiah CrosbySimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
29.2%
Tom Weston punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:1524% → 25%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+51
23.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jaiven Plummer for 51 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
24.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
24.5%
California Penalty, false start (Leon Bell) to the MINN 39Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
25.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
24.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
24.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for no gain to the MINN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD
17 plays · 69 yds · 6:3471% → 87%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.1%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MINN 31Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
30.1%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Brent AustinSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+14
30.6%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 14 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
28.9%
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 46Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
29.0%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Derek WilkinsSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+9
30.0%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
27.9%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-5
27.4%
Minnesota Penalty, false start (Greg Johnson) to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
28.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 9 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
27.1%
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
28.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive holding (Brent Austin) to the CAL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
18.6%
Fame Ijeboi run for 2 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
18.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke BrockingtonSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
19.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the CAL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.6%
Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the CAL 1Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.5%
Cam Davis run for no gain to the CAL 1Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.7%
Cam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:4315% → 21%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
15.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 29 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
16.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Emmanuel Karmo for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 49Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+19
14.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 19 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
17.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 3 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+45
20.7%
Abram Murray 45 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2370% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.3%
Drake Lindsey sacked by TJ Bush Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
30.8%
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the MINN 23Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
31.4%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brent Austin) to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
29.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 12 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
29.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Fame Ijeboi for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 48Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
33.8%
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 49Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
33.4%
Drake Lindsey pass intercepted Hezekiah Masses return for no gain to the CAL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:0433% → 29%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-16
32.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 16 yards to the CAL 21Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 26
OWN 21
0
31.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 26
OWN 21
0
30.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
29.4%
Michael Kern punt for 43 yds , Logan Loya returns for no gain to the MINN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:4966% → 68%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
33.7%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
33.2%
Minnesota Penalty, false start (Javon Tracy) to the MINN 35Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+23
35.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 23 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
28.8%
Fame Ijeboi run for 5 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+12
30.9%
Fame Ijeboi run for 12 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
30.4%
Cam Davis run for 7 yds to the CAL 18Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
29.9%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
31.9%
California Penalty, delay of game (T.J. Bollers) to the CAL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
29.7%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the CAL 10Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
29.7%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy, broken up by Hezekiah Masses for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive holding (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
29.7%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.1%
Jameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1632% → 32%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.5%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
32.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for no gain to the CAL 28 Minnesota Penalty, substitution infraction (Deven Eastern) to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
33.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for 18 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
37.2%
Brandon High Jr. run for 13 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
37.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 12 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
41.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the MINN 18Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
41.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
43.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the MINN 9Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
43.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
31.8%
Mason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:3363% → 50%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
36.8%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+16
35.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 16 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
35.9%
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 44Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+8
35.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 8 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
38.1%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.6%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington, broken up by Hezekiah MassesSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
38.1%
Fame Ijeboi run for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+8
38.2%
Fame Ijeboi run for 8 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
37.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson GeersSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.5%
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-3
41.1%
Cam Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
49.6%
Brady Denaburg 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2347% → 44%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
47.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
47.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jaiven PlummerSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
45.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jai'Onte' McMillan) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
50
+2
51.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
51.4%
California Penalty, false start (Braden Miller) to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
49.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini, broken up by Emmanuel KarmoSimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
46.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 13
OWN 47
+45
44.1%
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0755% → 92%
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
55.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 2 yds to the MINN 6Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
53.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the MINN 2Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.2%
Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0920% → 18%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
80.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
80.7%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy, broken up by Hezekiah MassesSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
81.2%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon TracySimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
82.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Isaiah CrosbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2294% → 97%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
94.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
94.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 4 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the MINN 40Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
96.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 12 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
97.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 12 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
97.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the MINN 15Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-2
97.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 17Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-3
93.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 20Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
97.3%
Chase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:397% → 8%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
91.3%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Logan Loya Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Greg Johnson) to the MINN 28Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-11
92.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 4 yds to the MINN 32 Minnesota Penalty, personal foul (Nathan Roy) to the MINN 17Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 29
OWN 17
+10
91.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+14
92.4%
Cam Davis run for 14 yds to the MINN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
97.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:55
Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
+38.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-11.4
TD · Q3 0:20
Mason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com