MINN
Minnesota 14 at California 27
CAL2025 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
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CAL · Drive 1PUNT · 7 plays · 22 yds
Q1 15:00
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.9%
0.0
Q1 14:55
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 27
6.8%
+0.9
Q1 14:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Defensive pass interference (John Nestor) to the CAL 42 for a 1ST down
6.9%
+0.1
Q1 14:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
7.1%
+0.2
Q1 14:22
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the CAL 47
7.1%
0.0
Q1 13:43
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
7.1%
-0.1
Q1 13:40
Michael Kern punt for 53 yds
7.0%
-0.1
MINN · Drive 2PUNT · 6 plays · 23 yds
Q1 13:20
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MINN 23
5.8%
-1.2
Q1 12:43
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 17 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down
5.8%
0.0
Q1 12:21
Cam Davis run for no gain to the MINN 40
5.6%
-0.2
Q1 11:41
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the MINN 43
5.6%
0.0
Q1 11:12
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Logan Loya
5.5%
-0.1
Q1 11:06
Tom Weston punt for 54 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 6 yds to the CAL 9
5.6%
+0.1
CAL · Drive 3PUNT · 8 plays · 36 yds
Q1 11:02
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 18 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST down
6.9%
+1.3
Q1 10:36
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the CAL 33
6.9%
0.0
Q1 10:06
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 32
6.9%
0.0
Q1 9:33
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jeffrey Johnson for 11 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST down
6.9%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
7.2%
+0.3
Q1 8:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
7.2%
0.0
Q1 8:24
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Matt Kingsbury and Nate Becker for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 45
7.1%
-0.1
Q1 7:39
Michael Kern punt for 52 yds
7.0%
-0.1
MINN · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 7:33
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MINN 6
5.8%
-1.2
Q1 6:49
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the MINN 10
5.8%
0.0
Q1 6:07
Cam Davis run for no gain to the MINN 10
5.6%
-0.3
Q1 5:24
Tom Weston punt for 42 yds California Penalty, Offensive holding (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 38
5.6%
+0.1
CAL · Drive 5TD · 7 plays · 62 yds
Q1 5:18
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mark Hamper
6.9%
+1.2
Q1 5:13
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.
6.9%
0.0
Q1 5:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 16 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST down
6.8%
-0.1
Q1 4:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds to the MINN 43
7.2%
+0.4
Q1 3:54
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 18 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST down
7.3%
+0.1
Q1 3:26
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 22 yds to the MINN 3 for a 1ST down
7.3%
0.0
Q1 2:54
Jacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
11.8%
+4.5
MINN · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · -12 yds
Q1 2:48
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the MINN 36
13.0%
+1.2
Q1 2:47
Abram Murray kickoff for 59 yds , Koi Perich return for 27 yds to the MINN 33
11.3%
-1.7
Q1 2:11
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith Minnesota Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Frank Bierman) to the MINN 21
13.0%
+1.7
Q1 2:08
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy
13.0%
0.0
Q1 1:59
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan McCulloch
13.5%
+0.4
Q1 1:55
Tom Weston punt for 35 yds
13.5%
0.0
CAL · Drive 7PUNT · 8 plays · 12 yds
Q1 1:52
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
12.0%
-1.5
Q1 1:27
California Penalty, false start (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the CAL 45
12.2%
+0.2
Q1 1:00
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for no gain to the CAL 45 California Penalty, Offensive holding (Leon Bell) to the CAL 35
12.0%
-0.2
Q1 0:44
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to QuaRon Adams for 20 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down
11.8%
-0.2
Q2 14:58
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the MINN 44
12.2%
+0.5
Q2 14:28
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
13.1%
+0.9
Q2 14:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
13.0%
-0.1
Q2 14:17
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds
12.7%
-0.3
MINN · Drive 8Uncategorized · 8 plays · 65 yds
Q2 14:02
Fame Ijeboi run for 27 yds to the MINN 29 for a 1ST down
14.5%
+1.8
Q2 13:17
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the MINN 33
14.5%
0.0
Q2 12:39
A.J. Turner run for 9 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST down
14.5%
0.0
Q2 11:53
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Koi Perich for 19 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST down
14.1%
-0.4
Q2 11:14
Fame Ijeboi run for 6 yds to the CAL 33
14.6%
+0.5
Q2 10:34
Koi Perich sacked by Aaron Hampton for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 42
14.6%
0.0
Q2 9:47
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington, broken up by Isaiah Crosby
14.6%
0.0
Q2 9:43
Tom Weston punt for 32 yds
15.0%
+0.4
CAL · Drive 9DOWNS · 6 plays · 59 yds
Q2 9:36
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jaiven Plummer for 51 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST down
16.8%
+1.7
Q2 9:05
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the MINN 34
17.5%
+0.7
Q2 8:34
California Penalty, false start (Leon Bell) to the MINN 39
17.5%
0.0
Q2 8:11
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.
18.1%
+0.6
Q2 8:08
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the MINN 31
18.0%
-0.1
Q2 7:21
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for no gain to the MINN 31
17.8%
-0.2
MINN · Drive 10TD · 17 plays · 69 yds
Q2 7:17
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MINN 31
16.3%
-1.5
Q2 6:47
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Brent Austin
16.3%
0.0
Q2 6:42
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 14 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down
16.3%
0.0
Q2 6:09
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 46
15.5%
-0.8
Q2 5:31
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Derek Wilkins
15.6%
+0.1
Q2 5:27
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST down
15.6%
0.0
Q2 4:46
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the CAL 40
16.1%
+0.5
Q2 4:02
Minnesota Penalty, false start (Greg Johnson) to the CAL 45
15.9%
-0.2
Q2 3:47
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 9 yds to the CAL 36
16.1%
+0.2
Q2 3:10
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST down
15.9%
-0.2
Q2 2:33
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive holding (Brent Austin) to the CAL 12 for a 1ST down
15.9%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Fame Ijeboi run for 2 yds to the CAL 10
15.8%
-0.1
Q2 1:50
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington
15.8%
0.0
Q2 1:48
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the CAL 1 for a 1ST down
15.8%
0.0
Q2 1:06
Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the CAL 1
15.8%
0.0
Q2 0:53
Cam Davis run for no gain to the CAL 1
15.8%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Cam Davis 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)
7.7%
-8.1
CAL · Drive 11FG · 6 plays · 48 yds
Q2 0:43
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
8.6%
+0.9
Q2 0:43
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 29 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST down
11.1%
+2.6
Q2 0:37
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Emmanuel Karmo for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 49
11.9%
+0.8
Q2 0:15
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 19 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST down
11.7%
-0.2
Q2 0:08
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 3 yds to the MINN 27
12.0%
+0.3
Q2 0:00
Abram Murray 45 Yd Field Goal
14.6%
+2.6
MINN · Drive 12INT · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q3 15:00
Abram Murray kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
13.8%
-0.8
Q3 15:00
Drake Lindsey sacked by TJ Bush Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20
12.9%
-0.9
Q3 14:25
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the MINN 23
12.9%
0.0
Q3 13:40
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brent Austin) to the MINN 37 for a 1ST down
12.9%
0.0
Q3 13:33
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 12 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST down
12.9%
0.0
Q3 13:05
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Fame Ijeboi for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 48
12.8%
-0.1
Q3 12:22
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 49
16.8%
+4.0
Q3 11:37
Drake Lindsey pass intercepted Hezekiah Masses return for no gain to the CAL 37
16.8%
0.0
CAL · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · -16 yds
Q3 11:32
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 16 yards to the CAL 21
22.3%
+5.5
Q3 10:47
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
21.9%
-0.3
Q3 10:42
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
21.9%
0.0
Q3 10:28
Michael Kern punt for 43 yds , Logan Loya returns for no gain to the MINN 36
21.5%
-0.5
MINN · Drive 14TD · 12 plays · 64 yds
Q3 10:25
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the MINN 40
17.8%
-3.7
Q3 9:52
Minnesota Penalty, false start (Javon Tracy) to the MINN 35
20.1%
+2.4
Q3 9:30
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 23 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST down
20.5%
+0.4
Q3 8:47
Fame Ijeboi run for 5 yds to the CAL 37
17.4%
-3.2
Q3 8:06
Fame Ijeboi run for 12 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST down
17.4%
0.0
Q3 7:33
Cam Davis run for 7 yds to the CAL 18
17.4%
0.0
Q3 6:59
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 16
17.4%
0.0
Q3 6:22
California Penalty, delay of game (T.J. Bollers) to the CAL 11 for a 1ST down
17.4%
0.0
Q3 6:02
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the CAL 10
17.4%
0.0
Q3 5:23
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy, broken up by Hezekiah Masses for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive holding (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 5 for a 1ST down
17.4%
0.0
Q3 5:23
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 3
17.4%
0.0
Q3 4:36
Jameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
5.6%
-11.8
CAL · Drive 15TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q3 4:36
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.0%
+0.4
Q3 4:36
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 28
7.8%
+1.9
Q3 3:45
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for no gain to the CAL 28 Minnesota Penalty, substitution infraction (Deven Eastern) to the CAL 33
7.5%
-0.3
Q3 3:22
Brandon High Jr. run for 18 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST down
7.5%
0.0
Q3 2:54
Brandon High Jr. run for 13 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down
8.1%
+0.6
Q3 2:31
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 12 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST down
8.4%
+0.3
Q3 1:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 6 yds to the MINN 18
8.4%
0.0
Q3 1:28
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST down
8.4%
0.0
Q3 0:54
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the MINN 9
8.4%
0.0
Q3 0:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
8.4%
0.0
Q3 0:20
Mason Mini 9 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
19.3%
+10.9
MINN · Drive 16MISSED FG · 13 plays · 46 yds
Q3 0:20
Abram Murray kickoff for 62 yds , Koi Perich return for 18 yds to the MINN 21
18.6%
-0.7
Q3 0:15
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the MINN 27
15.7%
-2.9
Q4 15:00
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 16 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST down
15.7%
0.0
Q4 14:22
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 44
17.2%
+1.5
Q4 13:43
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 8 yds to the CAL 48
16.8%
-0.3
Q4 13:17
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST down
16.5%
-0.3
Q4 12:33
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington, broken up by Hezekiah Masses
16.5%
0.0
Q4 12:27
Fame Ijeboi run for 5 yds to the CAL 41
16.5%
0.0
Q4 11:50
Fame Ijeboi run for 8 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST down
16.3%
-0.2
Q4 11:06
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson Geers
16.1%
-0.2
Q4 11:03
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the CAL 30
16.1%
0.0
Q4 10:20
Cam Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 33
17.5%
+1.4
Q4 9:42
Brady Denaburg 51 yd FG MISSED
17.8%
+0.3
CAL · Drive 17PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q4 9:33
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 35
21.7%
+3.8
Q4 9:15
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jaiven Plummer
21.7%
0.0
Q4 9:10
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jai'Onte' McMillan) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
21.6%
0.0
Q4 9:05
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MINN 48
22.4%
+0.7
Q4 8:37
California Penalty, false start (Braden Miller) to the CAL 47
22.5%
+0.1
Q4 8:19
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini, broken up by Emmanuel Karmo
22.5%
0.0
Q4 8:17
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.
22.3%
-0.2
Q4 8:10
Michael Kern punt for 45 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 8
14.2%
-8.1
CAL · Drive 18TD · 3 plays · 8 yds
Q4 8:02
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 2 yds to the MINN 6
15.2%
+1.0
Q4 7:37
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the MINN 2
15.2%
0.0
Q4 6:55
Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
54.0%
+38.8
MINN · Drive 19DOWNS · 6 plays · 27 yds
Q4 6:55
Abram Murray kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
53.2%
-0.7
Q4 6:55
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
43.0%
-10.2
Q4 6:23
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the CAL 48
43.0%
0.0
Q4 5:53
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy, broken up by Hezekiah Masses
44.0%
+1.0
Q4 5:50
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy
45.3%
+1.4
Q4 5:46
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith, broken up by Isaiah Crosby
45.3%
0.0
CAL · Drive 20FG · 10 plays · 32 yds
Q4 5:32
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the MINN 47
53.7%
+8.4
Q4 4:56
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the MINN 44
54.7%
+0.9
Q4 4:16
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 4 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down
57.3%
+2.6
Q4 3:32
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the MINN 40
57.2%
0.0
Q4 3:28
Kendrick Raphael run for 12 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST down
57.2%
0.0
Q4 3:16
Kendrick Raphael run for 12 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST down
57.2%
0.0
Q4 3:02
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the MINN 15
57.2%
0.0
Q4 2:23
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 17
57.2%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 20
57.2%
0.0
Q4 1:10
Chase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal
58.7%
+1.5
MINN · Drive 21DOWNS · 6 plays · 5 yds
Q4 1:10
Chase Meyer kickoff for 44 yds , Derik LeCaptain return for 15 yds to the MINN 36
61.7%
+3.0
Q4 1:06
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the MINN 38
50.7%
-11.0
Q4 1:00
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Logan Loya Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Greg Johnson) to the MINN 28
44.5%
-6.2
Q4 0:55
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 4 yds to the MINN 32 Minnesota Penalty, personal foul (Nathan Roy) to the MINN 17
44.5%
0.0
Q4 0:31
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds to the MINN 27
45.9%
+1.4
Q4 0:27
Cam Davis run for 14 yds to the MINN 41
45.9%
0.0
CAL · Drive 22Uncategorized · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 0:19
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 41
58.7%
+12.8
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:55
Jordan King 2 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)
+38.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:19
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 41
+12.8
TD · Q3 4:36
Jameson Geers 3 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
-11.8