CMU
Central Michigan 3 at Michigan 63
MICH2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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MICH · Drive 1TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Cade Graham kickoff for 64 yds
86.9%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
89.0%
+2.1
Q1 14:47
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds to the MICH 32
89.0%
0.0
Q1 14:08
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 10 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down
88.8%
-0.2
Q1 13:47
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 11 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down
88.8%
0.0
Q1 13:14
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the CMU 45
89.2%
+0.4
Q1 12:34
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 16 yds to the CMU 29 for a 1ST down
89.2%
0.0
Q1 12:18
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the CMU 24
89.3%
+0.2
Q1 11:35
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
89.3%
0.0
Q1 11:24
Bryce Underwood run for 16 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST down
89.2%
-0.1
Q1 11:00
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Underwood,Bryce pass incomplete short right to McCulley,Donaven thrown to CMU00 PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Deasfernandes,Brenden) 6 yards from CMU08 to CMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
89.2%
0.0
Q1 10:56
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
93.6%
+4.4
CMU · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · -8 yds
Q1 10:56
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 63 yds
93.6%
0.0
Q1 10:51
Joe Labas sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 8 yards to the CMU 17
93.7%
+0.1
Q1 10:12
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Tyson Davis
93.1%
-0.6
Q1 10:08
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Langston Lewis
93.1%
0.0
Q1 9:59
Declan Duley punt for 42 yds
93.2%
+0.1
MICH · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 59 yds
Q1 9:51
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the MICH 41
93.7%
+0.5
Q1 9:19
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
93.7%
0.0
Q1 9:14
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 21 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST down
93.7%
0.0
Q1 8:46
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 41
93.7%
0.0
Q1 7:56
Bryce Underwood run for 9 yds to the CMU 32
93.7%
0.0
Q1 7:21
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 32 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
96.9%
+3.2
CMU · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 7:21
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 64 yds
96.9%
0.0
Q1 7:16
Trey Cornist run for 3 yds to the CMU 28
96.7%
-0.2
Q1 6:36
Trey Cornist run for 2 yds to the CMU 30
96.7%
0.0
Q1 5:52
Trey Cornist run for 1 yd to the CMU 31
96.3%
-0.4
Q1 5:08
Zac Chapeau punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 37
96.3%
0.0
MICH · Drive 5MISSED FG · 7 plays · 34 yds
Q1 4:58
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the MICH 39
96.6%
+0.3
Q1 4:17
Bryce Underwood run for 28 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down
96.7%
+0.2
Q1 3:58
Jordan Marshall run for 13 yds Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrew Marsh) to the CMU 30
96.8%
+0.1
Q1 3:51
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the CMU 29
96.8%
0.0
Q1 3:17
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
96.8%
0.0
Q1 3:13
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
96.8%
0.0
Q1 3:08
Dominic Zvada 47 yd FG MISSED
96.7%
-0.1
CMU · Drive 6PUNT · 7 plays · 7 yds
Q1 3:01
Trey Cornist run for 1 yd to the CMU 30
96.3%
-0.4
Q1 2:18
Trey Cornist run for 1 yd to the CMU 31
96.2%
-0.1
Q1 1:30
Angel Flores pass complete to Brock Townsend for 8 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST down
96.2%
0.0
Q1 0:54
Joe Labas sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 30
96.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Brock Townsend run for no gain to the CMU 30
92.4%
-3.8
Q2 14:48
Joe Labas pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 6 yds to the CMU 36
92.4%
0.0
Q2 14:13
Declan Duley punt for 43 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 2 yds to the MICH 23
93.2%
+0.8
MICH · Drive 7TD · 4 plays · 77 yds
Q2 14:06
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 24
96.8%
+3.6
Q2 13:31
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 30 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q2 12:41
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 26 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q2 12:09
Bryce Underwood run for 20 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.1%
+2.2
CMU · Drive 8DOWNS · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q2 12:09
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.1%
0.0
Q2 12:00
Angel Flores run for 5 yds to the CMU 30
97.7%
-1.4
Q2 11:28
Angel Flores pass complete to Tyson Davis for 4 yds to the CMU 34
97.8%
+0.2
Q2 10:51
Angel Flores run for no gain to the CMU 34
97.8%
0.0
Q2 10:11
Angel Flores pass complete to Nahree Biggins for no gain to the CMU 34
97.8%
0.0
MICH · Drive 9TD · 2 plays · 34 yds
Q2 10:02
Justice Haynes run for 11 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST down
99.2%
+1.4
Q2 9:23
Andrew Marsh run for 23 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.6%
+0.5
CMU · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q2 9:23
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.7%
0.0
Q2 9:17
Nahree Biggins run for 2 yds to the CMU 27
99.1%
-0.5
Q2 8:40
Joe Labas sacked by Jyaire Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 20
99.1%
0.0
Q2 8:00
Joe Labas pass incomplete to Nasir Williams
99.0%
-0.1
Q2 7:51
Declan Duley punt for 37 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for no gain to the MICH 43
99.0%
0.0
MICH · Drive 11INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 7:43
Bryce Underwood pass intercepted Brenden Deasfernandes return for no gain to the CMU 15
99.7%
+0.7
CMU · Drive 12FG · 16 plays · 81 yds
Q2 7:34
Angel Flores pass complete to Tyson Davis for 4 yds to the CMU 19
99.1%
-0.5
Q2 7:15
Angel Flores pass complete to Langston Lewis for 4 yds to the CMU 23
99.1%
0.0
Q2 6:43
Angel Flores run for 7 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST down
99.2%
+0.1
Q2 6:09
Angel Flores run for 17 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 5:32
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Tommy McIntosh
99.3%
0.0
Q2 5:24
Angel Flores run for 5 yds to the MICH 48
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:42
Angel Flores run for 14 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:05
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Langston Lewis
99.2%
0.0
Q2 3:54
Angel Flores pass complete to Nathan VanTimmeren for 7 yds to the MICH 27
99.2%
0.0
Q2 3:14
Trey Cornist run for 8 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Tré Williams) to the MICH 9 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 2:42
Angel Flores pass complete to Tyson Davis for 3 yds to the MICH 12
99.3%
+0.1
Q2 2:04
Angel Flores run for 2 yds to the MICH 10
99.3%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Michigan, clock 02:00
99.1%
-0.2
Q2 1:54
Angel Flores run for 6 yds to the MICH 4
99.1%
0.0
Q2 1:54
Timeout Michigan, clock 01:54
99.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:51
Cade Graham 22 yd FG GOOD
98.6%
-0.4
MICH · Drive 13TD · 13 plays · 79 yds
Q2 1:45
Cade Graham kickoff for 60 yds , Andrew Marsh return for 16 yds to the MICH 21
98.7%
+0.1
Q2 1:38
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the MICH 25
99.3%
+0.5
Q2 1:22
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 6 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q2 1:04
Bryce Underwood run for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:55
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 16 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:50
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Hogan Hansen
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 10 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Bryce Underwood run for 5 yds to the CMU 27
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Timeout Michigan, clock 00:34
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:27
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:18
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 17 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:09
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.6%
+0.4
CMU · Drive 14END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:09
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:00
J. Labas takes a knee
99.5%
-0.1
CMU · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q3 15:00
Dominic Zvada kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
+0.4
Q3 14:54
Trey Cornist run for no gain to the CMU 25
99.6%
-0.2
Q3 14:19
Trey Cornist run for 1 yd to the CMU 26
99.6%
0.0
Q3 13:28
Joe Labas pass complete to Tommy McIntosh for 7 yds to the CMU 33
99.6%
0.0
Q3 12:56
Declan Duley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30
99.6%
0.0
MICH · Drive 16TD · 10 plays · 70 yds
Q3 12:46
Justice Haynes run for 20 yds for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nathan Efobi) to the MICH 40 for a 1ST down
99.8%
+0.2
Q3 12:40
Bryce Underwood run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 12:07
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the CMU 43
99.8%
0.0
Q3 11:30
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 10:40
Justice Haynes run for 11 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 10:03
Jordan Marshall run for 6 yds to the CMU 19
99.8%
0.0
Q3 9:34
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
99.8%
0.0
Q3 9:27
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 7 yds to the CMU 12 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 8:54
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 8 yds to the CMU 4
99.8%
0.0
Q3 8:27
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.9%
+0.1
CMU · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q3 8:21
Dominic Zvada kickoff for 63 yds , Nahree Biggins return for 23 yds to the CMU 25
99.9%
0.0
Q3 8:14
Trey Cornist run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24
99.8%
-0.2
Q3 7:43
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Justin Ruffin Jr.
99.8%
0.0
Q3 7:35
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Justin Ruffin Jr.
99.8%
0.0
Q3 7:29
Zac Chapeau punt for 39 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for no gain to the MICH 37
99.8%
0.0
MICH · Drive 18TD · 8 plays · 63 yds
Q3 7:14
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 9 yds to the MICH 46
99.9%
+0.2
Q3 6:45
Justice Haynes run for 15 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 6:06
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the CMU 35
99.9%
0.0
Q3 5:28
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the CMU 27 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 4:50
Jordan Marshall run for 6 yds to the CMU 21
99.9%
0.0
Q3 4:13
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the CMU 18 Michigan Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Andrew Marsh) to the CMU 33
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:57
Jordan Marshall run for 15 yds to the CMU 18
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:12
Bryce Underwood run for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.9%
0.0
CMU · Drive 19INT · 3 plays · 3 yds
Q3 3:12
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:06
Joe Labas run for 3 yds to the CMU 28
99.8%
-0.1
Q3 2:26
Joe Labas pass intercepted Elijah Dotson return for no gain to the CMU 48
99.8%
0.0
MICH · Drive 20TD · 7 plays · 48 yds
Q3 2:19
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the CMU 40
99.9%
+0.1
Q3 1:44
Bryson Kuzdzal run for 6 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 1:04
Anthony Simpson run for 10 yds to the CMU 24 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Bryson Kuzdzal run for 6 yds to the CMU 18
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:51
Bryson Kuzdzal run for 11 yds to the CMU 7 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:12
Bryson Kuzdzal run for 6 yds to the CMU 1
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:01
Bryson Kuzdzal run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.9%
0.0
CMU · Drive 21FUMBLE · 2 plays · 20 yds
Q4 14:01
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:50
Angel Flores run for 20 yds to the CMU 45 Angel Flores fumbled, recovered by MICH Manuel Beigel
99.8%
-0.1
MICH · Drive 22TD · 9 plays · 45 yds
Q4 13:41
Jasper Parker run for 10 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST down
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 13:04
Jasper Parker run for 5 yds to the CMU 30
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:29
Jasper Parker run for 3 yds to the CMU 27
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:53
Jasper Parker run for 7 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:20
Jasper Parker run for 4 yds to the CMU 16
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:44
Jasper Parker run for 4 yds to the CMU 12
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:05
Jasper Parker run for 11 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:33
Jasper Parker run for no gain to the CMU 1
100.0%
0.0
Q4 9:00
Jasper Parker run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
100.0%
0.0
CMU · Drive 23DOWNS · 11 plays · 32 yds
Q4 9:00
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds
100.0%
0.0
Q4 8:52
Brock Townsend run for 2 yds to the CMU 27
99.9%
-0.1
Q4 8:12
Brock Townsend run for 2 yds to the CMU 29
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:25
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 18 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:52
Brock Townsend run for 4 yds to the MICH 49
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:16
Brock Townsend run for 1 yd to the MICH 48
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:30
Joe Labas pass complete to Justin Ruffin Jr. for 5 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 4:52
Kadenn Rose run for 1 yd to the MICH 42
99.9%
0.0
Q4 4:16
Kadenn Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 43
99.9%
0.0
Q4 3:34
Kadenn Rose run for no gain to the MICH 43
99.9%
0.0
Q4 3:08
Angel Flores pass incomplete to Tayte Vanderleest
99.9%
0.0
MICH · Drive 24DOWNS · 7 plays · 3 yds
Q4 3:00
Tomas O'Meara run for 8 yds to the CMU 49
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:25
Tomas O'Meara run for 2 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 1:57
Tomas O'Meara run for 2 yds to the CMU 45
99.9%
0.0
Q4 1:57
Timeout Michigan, clock 01:57
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 1:49
J. Garcia takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:03
J. Garcia takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
Q4 0:26
J. Garcia takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
CMU · Drive 25END OF GAME · 1 play · -2 yds
Q4 0:00
J. Labas takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 10:56
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+4.4
KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00
Brock Townsend run for no gain to the CMU 30
-3.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 14:06
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 24
+3.6