UNM
New Mexico 35 at UCLA 10
UCLA2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UNM · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 22 yds
Q1 15:00
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.5%
0.0
Q1 14:47
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for 20 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST down
75.1%
-2.4
Q1 14:15
Michael Buckley pass incomplete to Damon Bankston
73.7%
-1.4
Q1 14:10
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian Thomas
73.7%
0.0
Q1 14:01
Jack Layne run for 2 yds to the UNM 47
73.7%
0.0
Q1 13:23
Daniel Hughes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the UCLA 10
73.7%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 2PUNT · 9 plays · 31 yds
Q1 13:15
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 7 yds to the UCLA 17
77.2%
+3.5
Q1 12:50
PENALTY UCLA False Start (Armella,Julian) 5 yards from UCLA17 to UCLA12. NO PLAY.
77.2%
0.0
Q1 12:32
Jaivian Thomas run for 6 yds to the UCLA 18
77.2%
0.0
Q1 11:48
Nico Iamaleava run for 6 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST down
77.2%
0.0
Q1 11:10
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST down
76.9%
-0.2
Q1 10:34
Anthony Woods run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40
77.0%
0.0
Q1 10:05
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the UCLA 44
77.0%
0.0
Q1 9:24
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 41
77.0%
0.0
Q1 8:35
Will Karoll punt for 38 yds , Michael Buckley returns for no gain to the UNM 36
76.8%
-0.2
UNM · Drive 3TD · 9 plays · 64 yds
Q1 8:30
Scottre Humphrey run for 10 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST down
74.2%
-2.6
Q1 7:54
Scottre Humphrey run for 19 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST down
73.1%
-1.1
Q1 7:14
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33
72.9%
-0.2
Q1 6:39
Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28
72.8%
-0.1
Q1 5:50
D.J. McKinney run for 9 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST down
71.9%
-0.9
Q1 5:09
D.J. McKinney run for 5 yds to the UCLA 14
71.9%
0.0
Q1 4:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 10 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST down
71.4%
-0.5
Q1 3:45
James Laubstein run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1
71.4%
0.0
Q1 3:10
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
64.9%
-6.5
UCLA · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q1 3:02
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 41 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala return for 8 yds to the UCLA 17
65.2%
+0.3
Q1 2:56
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews
60.2%
-5.0
Q1 1:39
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the UCLA 23
58.9%
-1.3
Q1 1:39
Will Karoll punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Michael Buckley at the UNM 41
58.9%
0.0
UNM · Drive 5TD · 7 plays · 59 yds
Q1 0:57
Damon Bankston run for 3 yds to the UNM 44
64.3%
+5.4
Q1 0:51
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 14 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Keanu Williams) to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST down
64.0%
-0.3
Q1 0:00
Scottre Humphrey run for 11 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST down
62.6%
-1.4
Q2 14:52
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UCLA 14
62.6%
0.0
Q2 14:08
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 3 yds to the UCLA 11
62.6%
0.0
Q2 13:22
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 3 yds to the UCLA 8
62.6%
0.0
Q2 12:43
Jack Layne pass complete to Simon Mapa for 8 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
40.4%
-22.2
UCLA · Drive 6TD · 11 plays · 78 yds
Q2 12:38
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 62 yds , Anthony Frias II return for 19 yds to the UCLA 22
40.5%
+0.1
Q2 12:31
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 32 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST down
46.0%
+5.5
Q2 12:10
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
46.9%
+1.0
Q2 12:03
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 12 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST down
45.3%
-1.6
Q2 11:37
(11:39) PENALTY UCLA False Start (Gilmer,Kwazi) 5 yards from UNM34 to UNM39. NO PLAY.
46.8%
+1.5
Q2 11:07
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UNM 39
46.8%
0.0
Q2 10:31
New Mexico Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jon Johnson) to the UNM 17 for a 1ST down
46.8%
0.0
Q2 10:16
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 9 yds to the UNM 8
46.7%
-0.1
Q2 9:41
Anthony Woods run for 1 yd to the UNM 7 for a 1ST down
46.7%
0.0
Q2 9:13
PENALTY UCLA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNM07 to UNM12. NO PLAY.
46.7%
0.0
Q2 8:59
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
59.7%
+13.0
UNM · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q2 8:59
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
57.3%
-2.3
Q2 8:53
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the UNM 28
62.6%
+5.2
Q2 8:12
Jack Layne pass incomplete
61.4%
-1.1
Q2 8:03
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Zhaiel Smith
61.4%
0.0
Q2 8:03
PENALTY UNM False Start (Combs,Tavian) 5 yards from UNM28 to UNM23. NO PLAY.
61.4%
0.0
Q2 7:48
Daniel Hughes punt for 57 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 11
61.4%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 8PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q2 7:42
Anthony Woods run for 2 yds to the UCLA 13
56.3%
-5.1
Q2 7:10
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST down
56.3%
0.0
Q2 6:35
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
56.3%
0.0
Q2 6:29
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the UCLA 29
52.3%
-4.1
Q2 5:52
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the UCLA 30
52.3%
0.0
Q2 5:09
Will Karoll punt for 46 yds
52.3%
0.0
UNM · Drive 9DOWNS · 8 plays · 73 yds
Q2 5:00
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the UNM 25
61.4%
+9.2
Q2 4:22
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 20 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST down
61.4%
0.0
Q2 3:41
Damon Bankston run for 43 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST down
60.7%
-0.8
Q2 2:59
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UCLA 8
58.3%
-2.3
Q2 2:14
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the UCLA 5
57.8%
-0.6
Q2 1:53
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UCLA 3
57.8%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:16
56.0%
-1.8
Q2 1:09
Jack Layne run for no gain to the UCLA 3
56.0%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 10END OF HALF · 12 plays · 77 yds
Q2 1:01
Anthony Woods run for no gain to the UCLA 3
53.8%
-2.2
Q2 0:28
Anthony Woods run for 9 yds to the UCLA 12
50.1%
-3.7
Q2 0:27
Timeout UCLA, clock 00:27
48.8%
-1.3
Q2 0:21
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST down
48.8%
0.0
Q2 0:11
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 5 yds to the UCLA 26
48.3%
-0.5
Q2 0:11
Timeout UCLA, clock 00:11
47.3%
-1.0
Q2 0:04
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 20 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST down
46.3%
-1.0
Q2 0:04
Timeout UCLA, clock 00:04
46.6%
+0.3
Q2 0:01
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 6 yds to the UNM 48
46.6%
0.0
Q2 0:01
(00:01) PENALTY UCLA False Start (Brooks,Eugene) 5 yards from UNM48 to UCLA47. NO PLAY.
47.9%
+1.2
Q2 0:01
Timeout New Mexico, clock 00:01
46.9%
-1.0
Q2 0:00
Anthony Woods run for 33 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST down
46.9%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q3 15:00
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 53 yds New Mexico Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keyshawn James-Newby) declined
54.4%
+7.5
Q3 14:57
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala
46.2%
-8.2
Q3 14:53
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Jaivian Thomas
46.2%
0.0
Q3 14:49
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
46.2%
0.0
Q3 14:41
Will Karoll punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Buckley at the UNM 38
46.2%
0.0
UNM · Drive 12FUMBLE · 13 plays · 59 yds
Q3 14:36
Damon Bankston run for 7 yds to the UNM 45
53.4%
+7.2
Q3 14:00
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UNM 47
53.1%
-0.3
Q3 13:20
PENALTY UNM False Start (Mukwiza,Israel) 4 yards from UNM47 to UNM43. NO PLAY.
52.5%
-0.5
Q3 12:52
(13:00) Shotgun Layne,Jack rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM43 (Aupiu,Devin) PENALTY UCLA Face Mask (Aupiu,Devin) 15 yards from UNM43 to UCLA42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
52.6%
0.0
Q3 12:27
D.J. McKinney run for 6 yds to the UCLA 36
52.3%
-0.3
Q3 11:49
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33
52.3%
0.0
Q3 11:09
Timeout New Mexico, clock 11:09
49.2%
-3.1
Q3 11:04
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST down
49.2%
0.0
Q3 10:21
Jack Layne pass complete to Zhaiel Smith for 15 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST down
49.2%
0.0
Q3 9:39
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for no gain to the UCLA 14
48.8%
-0.4
Q3 9:02
D.J. McKinney run for 7 yds to the UCLA 7
48.8%
0.0
Q3 8:18
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UCLA 5
47.2%
-1.6
Q3 7:33
Deshaun Buchanan run for 2 yds to the UCLA 3 Deshaun Buchanan fumbled, recovered by UNM Devin Aupiu
47.7%
+0.4
UCLA · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q3 7:25
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala
45.2%
-2.5
Q3 7:17
Anthony Woods run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6
45.2%
0.0
Q3 6:47
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Anthony Woods
45.2%
0.0
Q3 6:34
Will Karoll punt for 32 yds
45.2%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 14FG · 7 plays · 26 yds
Q3 6:26
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 28 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST down
45.2%
0.0
Q3 5:56
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 6 yds to the UNM 25
48.2%
+3.0
Q3 5:30
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 27
48.2%
0.0
Q3 5:01
PENALTY UCLA False Start (DiGiorgio,Garrett) 5 yards from UNM27 to UNM32. NO PLAY.
44.9%
-3.3
Q3 4:40
(04:41) PENALTY UCLA False Start (DiGiorgio,Garrett) 5 yards from UNM32 to UNM37. NO PLAY.
44.9%
0.0
Q3 4:11
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the UNM 33
44.6%
-0.3
Q3 3:34
Mateen Bhaghani 51 yd FG GOOD
56.0%
+11.3
UNM · Drive 15TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q3 3:34
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
54.0%
-2.0
Q3 3:26
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Zhaiel Smith
46.2%
-7.8
Q3 3:21
D.J. McKinney run for 11 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down
46.2%
0.0
Q3 2:37
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the UNM 41
45.9%
-0.2
Q3 1:59
Damon Bankston run for 20 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST down
45.4%
-0.6
Q3 1:04
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37
44.6%
-0.8
Q3 0:00
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 5 yds to the UCLA 32
43.6%
-1.0
Q4 14:54
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30
43.6%
0.0
Q4 14:06
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST down
44.0%
+0.4
Q4 13:28
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UCLA 26
43.6%
-0.4
Q4 12:43
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 11 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST down
41.7%
-2.0
Q4 12:01
D.J. McKinney run for 9 yds to the UCLA 6
41.7%
0.0
Q4 11:23
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST down
41.7%
0.0
Q4 10:42
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
18.8%
-22.8
UCLA · Drive 16DOWNS · 7 plays · 17 yds
Q4 10:42
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
19.2%
+0.4
Q4 10:35
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST down
27.3%
+8.1
Q4 10:13
PENALTY UCLA False Start (Gilmer,Kwazi) 5 yards from UCLA36 to UCLA31. NO PLAY.
26.5%
-0.8
Q4 9:56
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Hudson Habermehl
26.5%
0.0
Q4 9:51
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews
26.5%
0.0
Q4 9:42
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 11 yds to the UCLA 42
25.8%
-0.8
Q4 9:13
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala
25.5%
-0.3
UNM · Drive 17TD · 4 plays · 42 yds
Q4 9:03
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38
17.1%
-8.4
Q4 8:20
D.J. McKinney run for no gain to the UCLA 38
17.1%
0.0
Q4 7:40
(07:47) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete short left to Buckley,Michael caught at UCLA34, for 4 yards to the UCLA34, out of bounds at UCLA34 PENALTY UNM Illegal Motion (Pearce,Richard) 5 yards from UCLA38 to UCLA43. NO PLAY.
15.9%
-1.2
Q4 7:06
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 43 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
3.8%
-12.1
UCLA · Drive 18INT · 10 plays · 41 yds
Q4 7:06
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.8%
0.0
Q4 6:55
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 8 yds to the UCLA 33
17.3%
+13.5
Q4 6:36
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST down
17.0%
-0.3
Q4 6:18
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 6 yds to the UCLA 42
16.7%
-0.2
Q4 5:55
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 2 yds to the UCLA 44
16.7%
0.0
Q4 5:38
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST down
17.0%
+0.2
Q4 5:18
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 11 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST down
17.0%
0.0
Q4 4:44
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 8 yds to the UNM 34
17.0%
+0.1
Q4 4:27
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for no gain to the UNM 34
17.0%
0.0
Q4 3:58
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Tavian Combs return for 11 yds to the UNM 26
17.0%
0.0
UNM · Drive 19TD · 8 plays · 74 yds
Q4 3:52
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the UNM 27
3.8%
-13.3
Q4 3:52
Timeout UCLA, clock 03:52
4.0%
+0.2
Q4 3:43
Damon Bankston run for 54 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST down
4.0%
0.0
Q4 3:01
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15
4.0%
0.0
Q4 2:13
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UCLA 11
4.0%
0.0
Q4 1:55
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST down
4.0%
0.0
Q4 1:18
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UCLA 3
4.0%
0.0
Q4 0:36
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
2.3%
-1.7
UCLA · Drive 20END OF GAME · 3 plays · 8 yds
Q4 0:36
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.3%
0.0
Q4 0:26
Anthony Woods run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30
10.5%
+8.2
Q4 0:00
Anthony Woods run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33
10.0%
-0.5
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:42
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-22.8
TD · Q2 12:43
Jack Layne pass complete to Simon Mapa for 8 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-22.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 8 yds to the UCLA 33
+13.5