Try the model
VILL

Villanova 6 at Penn State 52

PSU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Brandon Binkowski for 8 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:02: Ryan Barker 42 yd FG GOOD — VILL win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:05: Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Joey Schlaffer for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:24: Jahmir Joseph 49 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick) — VILL win probability +0.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:00: Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Brandon Binkowski for 8 yds for a TD — PSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 4:33VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:55PSU 4th & 10 at VILL 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:15VILL 4th & 13 at VILL 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:22PSU 4th & 5 at VILL 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:54VILL 4th & 11 at VILL 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:02PSU 4th & 4 at VILL 25, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:15VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:50PSU 4th & 1 at VILL 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:09VILL 4th & 15 at VILL 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:39VILL 4th & 8 at VILL 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00VILL 4th & 8 at PSU 8, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:48PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:54100% → 99%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.5%
Trebor Pena run for 11 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 14 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
50
+6
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 6 yds to the VILL 44Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
99.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the VILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the VILL 38Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 13 yds to the VILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 10 yds to the VILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the VILL 11Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
99.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the VILL 8Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
99.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the VILL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:421% → 1%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.2%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the VILL 21Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
99.2%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zuriah Fisher) to the VILL 26Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
99.1%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the VILL 28Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
99.1%
Penn State Penalty, Delay of Game (Dani Dennis-Sutton) to the VILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Ja'briel Mace for a loss of 5 yards to the VILL 28Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+8
99.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Ja'briel Mace for 8 yds to the VILL 36Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-2
99.0%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Tony Rojas for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 34Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+13
99.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 54 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 13 yds to the PSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Trebor PenaSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
98.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 19 yds to the VILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
98.9%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Nolan Rucci) to the VILL 49Similar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+5
98.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Drew Allar for 5 yds to the VILL 44Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
98.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Sorge at the VILL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
98.7%
Isaiah Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 6Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
98.7%
Tanner Maddocks pass incomplete to Isaiah RaglandSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+3
98.7%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Luke Colella for 3 yds to the VILL 9Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 9
OWN 9
-4
98.7%
Villanova Penalty, Delay of Game (Luke Larsen) to the VILL 5Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 13
OWN 5
0
98.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VILL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
98.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the VILL 28Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
98.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the VILL 27Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
98.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Trebor PenaSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
98.6%
Ryan Barker 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:463% → 3%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
96.9%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the VILL 15Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
96.8%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the VILL 17Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 17
-5
97.0%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 5 yards to the VILL 12Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 11
OWN 12
+5
97.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 5 yds to the VILL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the VILL 47Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
97.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+16
96.7%
Drew Allar run for 16 yds to the VILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.3%
Trebor Pena run for 4 yds to the VILL 27Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
97.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the VILL 27Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+2
96.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the VILL 25Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
96.6%
Ryan Barker 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.6%
Pat McQuaide pass intercepted Elliot Washington II return for 12 yds to the VILL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
97.0%
Trebor Pena run for 9 yds to the VILL 14Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
96.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the VILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
96.9%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Omari Bursey return for no gain to the VILL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:354% → 3%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
96.5%
Isaiah Ragland run for 1 yd to the VILL 18Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
96.4%
Pat McQuaide pass incomplete to Luke ColellaSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Pat McQuaide pass incomplete to Lucas KopeckySimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:0396% → 96%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
96.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Andrew Rappleyea for 11 yds to the VILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the VILL 44Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
96.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the VILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
96.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 7 yds to the VILL 30Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
96.5%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the VILL 28Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
96.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Khalil DinkinsSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+4
96.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the VILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
96.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 21 yds to the VILL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:065% → 4%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.4%
David Avit run for 5 yds to the VILL 35Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
95.0%
David Avit run for 5 yds to the VILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
94.8%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to David Avit for 7 yds to the VILL 47Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
94.5%
Ja'briel Mace run for 2 yds to the VILL 49Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
94.6%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
94.3%
Isaiah Ragland run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 11
50
-4
94.5%
Isaiah Ragland run for a loss of 4 yards to the VILL 46Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
95.3%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
95.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 3:1295% → 95%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
94.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+21
94.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 21 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
95.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the VILL 45Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+16
95.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 16 yds to the VILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
95.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the VILL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
95.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:465% → 5%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.9%
Isaiah Ragland run for a loss of 3 yards to the VILL 22Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
95.1%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Antonio Johnson for 7 yds to the VILL 29Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
94.9%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Isaiah Ragland for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 27Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+34
95.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 34 yds to the VILL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.5%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
95.8%
Tyseer Denmark run for 12 yds to the VILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.7%
Cam Wallace run for 4 yds to the VILL 19Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
95.9%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Joey Schlaffer for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:205% → 5%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.3%
Ja'briel Mace run for 12 yds to the VILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-49
94.9%
Jahmir Joseph 49 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 17END OF GAME
23 plays · 75 yds · 6:115% → 4%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Isaiah Wright run for 5 yds to the VILL 30Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
94.6%
Isaiah Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 29Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
95.1%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Braden Reed for 33 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
93.8%
Isaiah Wright run for 2 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
93.6%
Tanner Maddocks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
94.1%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Braden Reed for 8 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
94.6%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Ralee Stephens for 6 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
94.4%
Isaiah Wright run for no gain to the PSU 22Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-5
94.8%
Villanova Penalty, False Start (Brandon Binkowski) to the PSU 27Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+5
95.0%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yvan Kemajou) to the PSU 22Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
94.8%
Tanner Maddocks run for 4 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
94.2%
Tanner Maddocks run for 6 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
94.0%
Tanner Maddocks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
94.5%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Brandon Binkowski for 11 yds to the PSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.0%
Isaiah Wright run for no gain to the PSU 1Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.8%
Tanner Maddocks run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 3Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Tanner Maddocks pass incomplete to Antonio JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
95.0%
Villanova Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Wright) to the PSU 8Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.0%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Brandon Binkowski for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4
TD · Q4 0:00
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Brandon Binkowski for 8 yds for a TD
+1
TD · Q4 6:24
Jahmir Joseph 49 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)
-0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com