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YSU

Youngstown State 24 at Michigan State 41

MSU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreYSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:44 · Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+37.6Home team on offense+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:59: Jaden Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK) — YSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Defense has -3 timeouts left).
  2. TD · Q3 10:57: Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:22: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 28 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:17: Beau Brungard pass complete to RK Dandridge for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK) — YSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:17: Timeout Michigan State, clock 01:17 — MSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4YSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00YSU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21YSU 4th & 7 at MSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54MSU 4th & 8 at YSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:44YSU 4th & 2 at YSU 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:16MSU 4th & 3 at YSU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:47MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:01YSU 4th & 8 at YSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:54YSU 4th & 10 at YSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:17YSU 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55YSU 4th & 12 at MSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:44MSU 4th & 3 at YSU 9, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:44YSU 4th & 4 at MSU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5YSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:13MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:07MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:59YSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:57MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:22MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:17YSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:05YSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:48MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
YSUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 7:395% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.7%
Beau Brungard run for 7 yds to the YSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
94.7%
Tahir Mills run for 1 yd to the YSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
94.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to RK Dandridge for 8 yds to the YSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
94.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jaden Gilbert for 5 yds to the YSU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
94.7%
Fresh Walters pass incomplete to Micheal MannaSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
94.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Austin Bray for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
50
+2
94.7%
Beau Brungard run for 2 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
94.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Alex McDonald for 23 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.7%
Tahir Mills run for 2 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
94.7%
Beau Brungard run for 7 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
94.7%
Tahir Mills run for 3 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.7%
Beau Brungard run for 2 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
94.7%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Austin BraySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+1
94.7%
Beau Brungard run for 1 yd to the MSU 10Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
92.6%
Andrew Lastovka 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 6:0193% → 92%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+28
92.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 28 yds to the YSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
92.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 10 yds to the YSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
92.8%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the YSU 40Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+5
92.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the YSU 35Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-2
91.2%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the YSU 37Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+10
90.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the YSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
91.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 15 yds to the YSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the YSU 8Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
91.8%
Rodney Bullard Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:298% → 9%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Tahir Mills run for 2 yds to the YSU 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
91.3%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 6 yds to the YSU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.3%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to RK DandridgeSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.4%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 6:3791% → 94%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
90.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+12
90.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 12 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
90.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
50
+10
91.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 10 yds to the YSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the YSU 37Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+18
91.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 18 yds to the YSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.9%
Chrishon McCray run for no gain to the YSU 19Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
90.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 16 yds to the YSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.9%
Frazier,Makhi rush middle for 1 yard loss to the YSU04 (Hodge,Dayne; Hickey,Dathan) PENALTY YSU Illegal Substitution 2 yards from YSU03 to YSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:087% → 12%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
92.7%
Beau Brungard run for a loss of 2 yards to the YSU 33Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+66
92.9%
Jaden Gilbert run for 66 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.0%
Jaden Gilbert run for no gain to the MSU 1Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Jaden Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4389% → 89%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
89.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 25 yds to the YSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
90.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 4 yds to the YSU 44Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
90.3%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Moore,Conner) 5 yards from YSU44 to YSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
90.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Makhi FrazierSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+8
89.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 8 yds to the YSU 41Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
88.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0212% → 13%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
88.3%
Jaden Gilbert run for 1 yd to the YSU 42Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
88.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 3 yds to the YSU 45Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+17
88.1%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 17 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.3%
Jaden Gilbert run for no gain to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
87.0%
Beau Brungard pass intercepted Armorion Smith return for no gain to the MSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:1488% → 89%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
88.1%
Youngstown State Penalty, Sideline Inteference (15 Yards) to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
89.0%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
89.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 6 yds to the YSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
89.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the YSU 41Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
89.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jayden SavourySimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+17
89.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Rodney Bullard Jr. for 17 yds to the YSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
89.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Evan BoydSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
89.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 23 yds to the YSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
89.6%
Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from YSU01 to YSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
89.4%
Martin Connington 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:1390% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 6 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
87.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Max Tomczak at the YSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4612% → 11%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
88.0%
Jaden Gilbert run for 3 yds to the YSU 36Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
87.8%
Beau Brungard sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the YSU 35Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
88.7%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Mike SolomonSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+83
88.6%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 52 yds , Omari Kelly returns for 83 yds to the YSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.3%
Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:037% → 7%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Mike SolomonSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Tahir Mills run for no gain to the YSU 25Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to RK DandridgeSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 46 yds , Omari Kelly returns for 7 yds to the MSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:3294% → 99%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.0%
Brandon Tullis run for no gain to the MSU 36Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
93.9%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+20
93.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 20 yds to the YSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
94.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 8 yds to the YSU 38Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
94.2%
Brandon Tullis run for 10 yds to the YSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 28 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:592% → 9%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Mike Solomon for 8 yds to the YSU 28Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
97.4%
Jaden Gilbert run for 1 yd to the YSU 29Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+23
97.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Austin Bray for 23 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
97.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jaden Gilbert for 39 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
97.0%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Tahir Mills for 3 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.0%
Beau Brungard run for 1 yd to the MSU 5Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
97.2%
PENALTY YSU False Start (Leigh,Desmeal) 5 yards from MSU05 to MSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
97.3%
Beau Brungard run for 7 yds to the MSU 3Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.5%
Beau Brungard pass complete to RK Dandridge for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.2%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Cameron Cunningham return for 5 yds to the MSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:159% → 7%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
91.0%
Beau Brungard run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 22Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
91.5%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Tahir MillsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+3
92.7%
Beau Brungard run for 3 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
93.1%
Andrew Lastovka 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 6:1198% → 99%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
98.0%
Aidan Chiles run for 15 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.1%
Brandon Tullis run for 9 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
98.0%
Brandon Tullis run for 6 yds to the YSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
98.1%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the YSU 46Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
98.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the YSU 44Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+28
98.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 28 yds to the YSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
98.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds to the YSU 13Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
99.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 4 yds to the YSU 9Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
99.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
99.0%
Martin Connington 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:392% → 6%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Alex McDonald for 8 yds to the YSU 33Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.6%
Beau Brungard run for 3 yds to the YSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Alex McDonald for 6 yds to the YSU 42Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 5 yds to the YSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Max TomczakSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to RK Dandridge for 4 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Tahir Mills for 2 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+26
97.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 26 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.1%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Fresh Walters for 5 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-3
98.1%
Beau Brungard run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
94.1%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Ky Wilson for 19 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.5%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the YSU 42Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
98.5%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the YSU 38Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+8
98.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the YSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
98.7%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 8 yds to the YSU 22Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
99.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 22 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jaden Gilbert for 7 yds to the YSU 32Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jaden Gilbert for 3 yds to the YSU 29Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 9 yds to the YSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Jaden GilbertSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
50
0
98.7%
Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Preston PennSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
50
-5
98.7%
Beau Brungard sacked by Anelu Lafaele for a loss of 5 yards to the YSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:17
Beau Brungard pass complete to RK Dandridge for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 10:57
Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q3 1:17
Timeout Michigan State, clock 01:17
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com