2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · SHI Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreNORF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Terrell Mitchell run for 4 yds to the NORF 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:04: Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:50: Jai Patel 31 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:08: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 37 yds for a TD (Jai Patel PAT BLOCKED) — RUTG win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:34: Kevon King run for 25 yds for a TD (Evan Helfrich KICK) — NORF win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:29: Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 5NORF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 14:09NORF 4th & 11 at NORF 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 9:12NORF 4th & 6 at RUTG 39, down 6Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%40% to convertField goal1.1%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:13RUTG 4th & 6 at NORF 39, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%40% to convertField goal98.4%−0.136% to makePunt98.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:48NORF 4th & 24 at NORF 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 12:24NORF 4th & 5 at RUTG 16, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%81% to makePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:50RUTG 4th & 10 at NORF 13, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%85% to makePunt97.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:47NORF 4th & 6 at NORF 29, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 0:11RUTG 4th & 4 at NORF 43, up 20Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%−<0.148% to convertField goal99.1%28% to makePunt99.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:00NORF 4th & 10 at NORF 19, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 4:18NORF 4th & 10 at RUTG 46, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:59RUTG 4th & 11 at NORF 25, up 43Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.125% to convertField goal99.9%66% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:09NORF 4th & 5 at NORF 30, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:01RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 39, up 50Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NORF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:09RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:48RUTG Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:04RUTG Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:08RUTG Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:34NORF Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:29RUTG Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:40RUTG Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:59RUTG Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNORFDrive 1PUNT TD5 plays · -1 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q1 14:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.1%
Dylan Braithwaite 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jai Patel PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 2PUNT13 plays · 36 yds · 4:501% → 1%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.1%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to DreSean Kendrick for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
50
-5
99.1%
PENALTY NSU False Start (McMillan,Dyral) 5 yards from NSU50 to NSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.0%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Taron Biles-Walker for 6 yds to the RUTG 49Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
99.0%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Taron Biles-Walker for 6 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-10
98.9%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun King,Kevon rush left for 17 yards gain to the RU20 (Sanders,Kaj), out of bounds PENALTY NSU Holding (Ademisoye,Daniel) 10 yards from RU37 to RU47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3DOWNS12 plays · 47 yds · 5:5099% → 98%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
98.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 12 yds to the RUTG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+12
98.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 12 yds to the RUTG 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 3 yds to the NORF 40Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 6
OPP 39
-7
98.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by David Ojiegbe for a loss of 7 yards to the NORF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 4PUNT TD6 plays · -14 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q1 2:17
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-10
98.2%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Kuhns,Otto pass incomplete short right to Biles-Walker,Taron thrown to NSU48 PENALTY NSU Holding (Price II,Guan) 10 yards from NSU36 to NSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 30
OWN 26
-5
98.2%
(02:17) PENALTY NSU False Start (Kendrick,DreSean) 5 yards from NSU26 to NSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 5FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:152% → 2%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
98.4%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to DreSean Kendrick for 11 yds to the NORF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD13 plays · 62 yds · 4:0398% → 99%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
97.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 17 yds to the NORF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
97.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 5 yds to the NORF 37Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
97.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 18 yds to the NORF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 7INT3 plays · 8 yds · 1:102% → 2%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
98.0%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Elyjah Mitchell for 8 yds to the RUTG 28Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-21
97.8%
Israel Carter pass intercepted Jett Elad return for 21 yds to the RUTG 25Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-21
97.8%
Otto Kuhns pass intercepted Jett Elad return for 21 yds to the RUTG 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8FG7 plays · 62 yds · 1:3598% → 99%
NORFDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:491% → 1%
RUTGDrive 10FG15 plays · 57 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+18
99.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 18 yds to the RUTG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.1%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass complete deep left to Sheffield,DT caught at NSU27, for 60 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:57 PENALTY RU Illegal Shift offsetting NSU Illegal Substitution offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 4 yds to the NORF 45Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+10
98.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 10 yds to the NORF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
NORFDrive 12TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:170% → 1%
RUTGDrive 13TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 6 yds to the RUTG 31Similar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+51
99.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 51 yds to the NORF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.1%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete short left to Fletcher Jr.,Kenny thrown to NSU10 PENALTY NSU Offside (Ojiegbe,David) 5 yards from NSU13 to NSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Marco Peery punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NORF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
99.9%
Otto Kuhns pass complete to Taron Biles-Walker for 11 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD10 plays · 85 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 27 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST down Norfolk State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Antwan Davis) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 9 yds to the NORF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 15 yds to the NORF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Norfolk State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Antwan Davis) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD13 plays · 48 yds · 5:41100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
99.9%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Surace,AJ pass incomplete short middle to Allen III,Vernon thrown to NSU34, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NSU Pass Interference (Smith,Jayden) 12 yards from NSU46 to NSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.9%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Mitchell,Terrell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NSU32 (Smith,Jayden; Mateo,Amir) PENALTY RU Illegal Formation (Cesaire,Justin) 5 yards from NSU34 to NSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-4
99.9%
AJ Surace sacked by Rontravious Perry for a loss of 4 yards to the NORF 43Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 19
OPP 43
-5
99.9%
PENALTY RU False Start (Kaliakmanis,Dino) 5 yards from NSU43 to NSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+18
99.9%
AJ Surace pass complete to Vernon Allen III for 18 yds to the NORF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
AJ Surace pass complete to Dino Kaliakmanis for 9 yds for a TD (Dane Pizzaro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:150% → 0%
RUTGDrive 19TD6 plays · 34 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
NORFDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
100.0%
Israel Carter pass complete to Ravon Moore for 2 yds to the NORF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 20 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:01
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+11
100.0%
Sean Ashenfelder pass complete to Jackson Gister for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:04
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q3 9:34
Kevon King run for 25 yds for a TD (Evan Helfrich KICK)
-0.9
TD · Q3 7:29
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+0.8