ARDLINETry the model
ORE

Oregon 34 at Northwestern 14

NU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAY
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ORE · Drive 1PUNT · 9 plays · 26 yds
Q1 15:00
Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.2%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Jayden Limar run for 7 yds to the ORE 32
1.8%
-0.3
Q1 14:16
Dante Moore pass complete to Jayden Limar for 2 yds to the ORE 34
1.8%
0.0
Q1 13:43
Jordon Davison run for 5 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST down
1.8%
0.0
Q1 13:08
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
1.8%
-0.1
Q1 12:51
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien Moore
1.7%
0.0
Q1 12:43
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the NU 49
1.7%
0.0
Q1 12:01
Dante Moore pass complete to Jordon Davison for no gain to the NU 49
1.7%
0.0
Q1 11:22
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 39 yds
1.7%
0.0
NU · Drive 2INT · 14 plays · 38 yds
Q1 11:22
Timeout Northwestern, clock 11:22
2.2%
+0.5
Q1 11:09
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 8 yds to the NU 18
2.2%
0.0
Q1 10:35
Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q1 9:53
Preston Stone run for no gain to the NU 22
2.2%
0.0
Q1 9:23
Caleb Komolafe run for 8 yds to the NU 30
2.2%
0.0
Q1 8:45
Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 34 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q1 8:06
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the NU 38
2.2%
0.0
Q1 7:22
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde
2.2%
0.0
Q1 7:15
Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the NU 43
2.2%
0.0
Q1 6:36
Lawson Albright run for 3 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q1 5:59
Frank Covey IV pass incomplete to Joseph Himon II
2.2%
0.0
Q1 5:50
Joseph Himon II run for 7 yds to the ORE 47
2.2%
0.0
Q1 5:11
(05:15) Shotgun Himon II,Joseph rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UO46 (Gray,Tionne; Alexander,Bear) PENALTY NU Illegal Formation 5 yards from UO47 to NU48. NO PLAY.
2.3%
+0.1
Q1 4:55
Preston Stone pass intercepted Bryce Boettcher return for 31 yds to the NU 23
2.3%
0.0
ORE · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 23 yds
Q1 4:36
Luke Moga run for 2 yds to the NU 21
1.6%
-0.7
Q1 3:55
Jayden Limar run for 12 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST down
1.6%
0.0
Q1 3:24
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 7 yds to the NU 2
1.6%
0.0
Q1 2:54
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the NU 1
1.6%
0.0
Q1 2:18
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
0.9%
-0.8
Q1 2:18
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:18
2.4%
+1.5
NU · Drive 4PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q1 2:11
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 59 yds , Joseph Himon II return for 39 yds to the NU 45
0.9%
-1.5
Q1 2:11
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:11
1.0%
+0.1
Q1 2:01
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 47
1.0%
0.0
Q1 1:13
Preston Stone pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 6 yds to the NU 41
1.0%
0.0
Q1 0:39
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Carson Grove
1.0%
0.0
Q1 0:31
Luke Akers punt for 59 yds for a touchback
1.0%
+0.1
ORE · Drive 5FG · 14 plays · 56 yds
Q1 0:32
Timeout Northwestern, clock 00:32
0.9%
-0.1
Q1 0:00
Dante Moore pass complete to Jeremiah McClellan for no gain to the ORE 20
1.0%
0.0
Q2 14:46
Dante Moore pass complete to Cooper Perry for 8 yds to the ORE 28
1.0%
0.0
Q2 14:14
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q2 13:37
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 11 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q2 12:49
Jay Harris run for 2 yds to the ORE 46
1.0%
0.0
Q2 12:15
Jay Harris run for 16 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q2 11:41
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Malik Benson
1.0%
0.0
Q2 11:18
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 11 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q2 10:52
Dante Moore pass complete to Cooper Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 28
1.0%
0.0
Q2 10:17
Jayden Limar run for 4 yds to the NU 24
1.1%
0.0
Q2 9:33
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien Moore
1.1%
0.0
Q2 9:28
Atticus Sappington 42 yd FG GOOD
1.0%
-0.1
Q2 9:28
Timeout Northwestern, clock 09:28
1.1%
+0.2
NU · Drive 6PUNT · 9 plays · 10 yds
Q2 9:28
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
1.0%
-0.1
Q2 9:20
Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 7 yds to the NU 32
0.6%
-0.4
Q2 8:50
PENALTY NU False Start (Beerntsen,Evan) 5 yards from NU32 to NU27. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q2 8:32
Joseph Himon II run for 9 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q2 7:47
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 12 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST down
0.7%
0.0
Q2 6:50
Preston Stone run for a loss of 18 yards to the NU 30 Preston Stone fumbled, recovered by NU Preston Stone
0.7%
0.0
Q2 6:19
Joseph Himon II run for 9 yds to the NU 39
0.7%
+0.1
Q2 5:34
Preston Stone sacked by Matayo Uiagalelei for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 35
0.7%
0.0
Q2 4:51
Luke Akers punt for 54 yds
0.8%
0.0
ORE · Drive 7TD · 16 plays · 89 yds
Q2 4:51
Timeout Northwestern, clock 04:51
1.1%
+0.3
Q2 4:41
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the ORE 12
1.1%
0.0
Q2 4:05
Jayden Limar run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 11
1.1%
0.0
Q2 3:24
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 20 yds to the ORE 31 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q2 2:49
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 12 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q2 2:42
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:42
1.1%
0.0
Q2 2:32
Jordon Davison run for 1 yd to the ORE 44
1.1%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:00
1.1%
0.0
Q2 1:50
Dante Moore run for 1 yd to the ORE 45
1.1%
0.0
Q2 1:41
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 20 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q2 1:36
Timeout Northwestern, clock 01:36
1.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:30
Jayden Limar run for 7 yds to the NU 28
1.0%
0.0
Q2 1:09
Jayden Limar run for no gain to the NU 28
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Dante Moore run for 4 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST down
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Timeout Oregon, clock 00:37
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:31
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 24 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
0.3%
-0.6
NU · Drive 8END OF HALF · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q2 0:31
Gage Hurych kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.3%
0.0
Q2 0:00
P. Stone takes a knee
0.2%
-0.1
NU · Drive 9DOWNS · 13 plays · 41 yds
Q3 15:00
Gage Hurych kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.4%
+0.2
Q3 14:50
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 27
0.5%
+0.2
Q3 14:17
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the NU 30
0.5%
0.0
Q3 13:33
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 8 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:55
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Frank Covey IV
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:48
Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the NU 43
0.5%
0.0
Q3 11:58
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 8 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q3 11:18
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 7 yds to the ORE 42
0.5%
0.0
Q3 10:43
Caleb Komolafe run for 7 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q3 10:01
Joseph Himon II run for 7 yds to the ORE 28
0.6%
0.0
Q3 9:19
Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the ORE 26
0.6%
0.0
Q3 8:38
Preston Stone sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ORE 34
0.6%
0.0
Q3 7:56
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Ricky Ahumaraeze
0.6%
0.0
ORE · Drive 10TD · 3 plays · 66 yds
Q3 7:56
Timeout Northwestern, clock 07:56
0.3%
-0.3
Q3 7:44
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
0.1%
-0.3
Q3 7:44
Timeout Northwestern, clock 07:44
0.5%
+0.4
NU · Drive 11INT · 7 plays · 43 yds
Q3 7:44
Gage Hurych kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.1%
-0.4
Q3 7:36
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 26
0.2%
+0.2
Q3 6:49
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 31 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q3 6:32
Preston Stone run for 6 yds to the ORE 37
0.2%
0.0
Q3 5:52
Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST down
0.2%
0.0
Q3 5:32
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Joseph Himon II
0.2%
0.0
Q3 5:18
Preston Stone pass intercepted Jerry Mixon return for 36 yds to the NU 35
0.2%
0.0
ORE · Drive 12TD · 7 plays · 35 yds
Q3 5:18
Timeout Northwestern, clock 05:18
0.1%
-0.2
Q3 5:03
Dante Moore pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 17 yds to the NU 18 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q3 4:24
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the NU 13
0.1%
0.0
Q3 3:38
Dante Moore pass complete to Jeremiah McClellan for 9 yds to the NU 4 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q3 3:01
(03:05) Shotgun Moore,Dante pass incomplete short right to Kasper,Kyler thrown to NU00 PENALTY NU Pass Interference (Davis II,Fred) 2 yards from NU04 to NU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.1%
0.0
Q3 2:56
Jordon Davison run for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
0.1%
0.0
Q3 2:56
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:56
0.1%
+0.1
NU · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q3 2:56
Gage Hurych kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0%
-0.1
Q3 2:48
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the NU 28
0.1%
0.0
Q3 2:09
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Lawson Albright
0.1%
0.0
Q3 2:03
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde
0.1%
0.0
Q3 1:52
Luke Akers punt for 53 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 9 yds to the ORE 28
0.1%
0.0
ORE · Drive 14INT · 4 plays · 33 yds
Q3 1:45
Dierre Hill Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 27
0.0%
0.0
Q3 1:01
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 27 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down
0.0%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Jay Harris run for 7 yds to the NU 39
0.1%
0.0
Q4 14:53
Dante Moore pass intercepted Mac Uihlein return for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 4
0.1%
0.0
NU · Drive 15DOWNS · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 14:46
Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 8
0.1%
0.0
Q4 14:06
Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the NU 13
0.1%
0.0
Q4 13:30
Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the NU 13
0.1%
0.0
Q4 12:51
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 12
0.1%
0.0
ORE · Drive 16FG · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q4 12:29
Luke Moga pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 5 yds to the NU 7
0.0%
0.0
Q4 12:05
Jordon Davison run for no gain to the NU 7
0.0%
0.0
Q4 11:33
Luke Moga pass incomplete to Kyler Kasper
0.0%
0.0
Q4 11:27
Atticus Sappington 25 yd FG GOOD
0.0%
0.0
Q4 11:27
Timeout Northwestern, clock 11:27
0.1%
0.0
NU · Drive 17TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q4 11:27
Gage Hurych kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0%
0.0
Q4 11:11
Preston Stone run for 10 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q4 10:37
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the NU 39
0.1%
0.0
Q4 9:57
Joseph Himon II run for 8 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q4 9:18
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the ORE 49
0.1%
0.0
Q4 8:26
Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for 40 yds to the ORE 9 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q4 7:52
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 5 yards to the ORE 14
0.1%
0.0
Q4 7:11
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
0.1%
0.0
Q4 6:58
Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 13 yds to the ORE 1
0.1%
0.0
Q4 6:20
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
0.1%
0.0
Q4 6:20
Timeout Northwestern, clock 06:20
0.0%
0.0
ORE · Drive 18PUNT · 10 plays · 28 yds
Q4 6:20
Luke Akers kickoff for 62 yds
0.1%
0.0
Q4 6:20
Timeout Northwestern, clock 06:20
0.0%
0.0
Q4 6:13
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 13 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST down
0.0%
0.0
Q4 5:38
Brock Thomas pass complete to Malik Benson for 3 yds to the ORE 41
0.0%
0.0
Q4 5:03
Da'Jaun Riggs run for no gain to the ORE 41
0.0%
0.0
Q4 4:25
Brock Thomas pass complete to Kyler Kasper for 11 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0%
0.0
Q4 3:46
Da'Jaun Riggs run for 1 yd to the NU 47
0.0%
0.0
Q4 3:09
Brock Thomas pass incomplete to Cooper Perry
0.0%
0.0
Q4 3:06
Brock Thomas pass incomplete to Jamari Johnson
0.0%
0.0
Q4 3:01
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Drew Wagner at the NU 9
0.0%
0.0
NU · Drive 19TD · 4 plays · 91 yds
Q4 2:55
Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the NU 14
0.0%
0.0
Q4 2:17
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 7 yds to the NU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:00
0.0%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Dashun Reeder run for 79 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
0.1%
0.0
ORE · Drive 20END OF GAME · 4 plays · 29 yds
Q4 1:48
Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.1%
0.0
Q4 1:41
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 17 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Fred Davis II) to the NU 43 for a 1ST down
0.1%
0.0
Q4 1:18
Dierre Hill Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 44
0.1%
0.0
Q4 0:00
L. Moga takes a knee
0.1%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 2:18
Timeout Northwestern, clock 02:18
+1.5
KEY PLAY · Q1 2:11
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 59 yds , Joseph Himon II return for 39 yds to the NU 45
-1.5
TD · Q1 2:18
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
-0.8
YardLine · model v3Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com