2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:09 · Keegan Andrews punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWA 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:41: Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens PAT MISSED) — IOWA win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:08: Kaden Wetjen run for 20 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:50: Grant Jordan run for 6 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK) — MASS win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:50: Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Mark Gronowski run for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 11:13MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 5:33MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 24, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 0:24MASS 4th & 20 at MASS 15, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 14:10IOWA 4th & 4 at MASS 46, up 20Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it98.0%48% to convertField goal97.8%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call97.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:50IOWA 4th & 7 at MASS 36, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%37% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%−0.142% to makePunt96.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:24MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 13, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 5:56IOWA 4th & 8 at MASS 20, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%75% to makePunt96.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:28MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 49, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:39MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 36, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 11:09MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 2:58IOWA 4th & 9 at MASS 9, up 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%89% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:09MASS 4th & 4 at IOWA 43, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.128% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:09MASS 4th & 4 at IOWA 43, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.128% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:20IOWA 4th & 3 at MASS 24, up 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.9%−0.168% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:01MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 49, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:25IOWA 4th & 7 at MASS 15, up 40Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.9%83% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:29IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:41IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:08IOWA Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:50MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.4%97% to makeGo for two3.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26IOWA Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:04IOWA Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
MASSDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 2:092% → 2%
Q1 12:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
98.5%
PENALTY UMASS False Start (Mosesso,Ryan) 5 yards from UMASS23 to UMASS18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+3
98.4%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Max Dowling for 3 yds to the MASS 21Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+39
98.4%
Keegan Andrews punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 39 , Kaden Wetjen returns for 39 yds to the MASS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD7 plays · 39 yds · 3:2498% → 98%
Q1 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
98.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 8 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
98.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 20 yds to the MASS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.2%
Grant Jordan sacked by Jaden Harrell for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 19Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
98.2%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 7 yds to the MASS 26Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
98.1%
Grant Jordan sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:0798% → 99%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 6 yds to the MASS 46Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
98.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaziun Patterson for 5 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+13
98.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 13 yds to the MASS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:341% → 1%
IOWADrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q2 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+6
98.5%
punt blocked by Kezion Dia-Johnson blocked by Kezion Dia-Johnson (14:16) Iowa punt 0 yards to the UMASS46 blocked by Dia-Johnson,Kezion recovered by UMASS Farris,Zach at IOWA27 Farris,Zach return 6 yards to the IOWA21 (Montgomery,Jayden). , Zachary Farris returns for 6 yds to the IOWA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD4 plays · 21 yds · 2:042% → 3%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
98.5%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 8 yds to the IOWA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG7 plays · 30 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q2 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+22
97.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 22 yds to the MASS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:173% → 3%
Q2 9:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
97.5%
Grant Jordan sacked by Zach Lutmer for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 22Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-9
97.5%
Grant Jordan sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 9 yards to the MASS 13Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+40
97.4%
Keegan Andrews punt for 49 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 40 yds to the MASS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
97.9%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Timmy Hinspeter for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 29 yds · 4:193% → 3%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.0%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 7 yds to the MASS 40Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
96.8%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Max Dowling for 3 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.8%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 1 yd to the MASS 44Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+5
96.5%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Donnie Gray for 5 yds to the MASS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD8 plays · 49 yds · 0:5398% → 99%
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 11 yds · 2:141% → 0%
Q3 12:39
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+95
99.7%
Keegan Andrews punt for 59 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 95 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.7%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 3 yds to the MASS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG16 plays · 61 yds · 8:02100% → 100%
Q3 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Dayton Howard for 8 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaziun Patterson for 2 yds to the MASS 44Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Hayden Large for 6 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Hayden Large for no gain to the MASS 34Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 3 yds to the MASS 19Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
99.9%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Marques White for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 9 Mark Gronowski fumbled, recovered by IOWA , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 13 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 13 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.9%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 6 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD11 plays · 57 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to Xavier Williams for 3 yds to the MASS 24Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 8 yds to the MASS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 9 yds to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to KJ Parker for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
100.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Donnie Gray for 22 yds to the MASS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 66 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
MASSDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 15 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
100.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Dallas Elliott for 8 yds to the MASS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:50
Grant Jordan run for 6 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q2 0:26
Mark Gronowski run for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 2:08
Kaden Wetjen run for 20 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+0.5