ARDLINETry the model
WMU

Western Michigan 0 at Illinois 38

ILL
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYFGKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
ILL · Drive 1FG · 16 plays · 65 yds
Q1 15:00
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
86.9%
0.0
Q1 14:55
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 27
89.0%
+2.1
Q1 14:27
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin Dixon
88.8%
-0.2
Q1 14:18
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 13 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST down
88.8%
0.0
Q1 13:53
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep left to Bowick,Justin thrown to WMU30 PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Wofford,Aaron) 15 yards from ILL40 to WMU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
88.8%
0.0
Q1 13:48
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the WMU 40
89.2%
+0.4
Q1 13:12
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the WMU 40
89.3%
+0.2
Q1 12:30
Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the WMU 31 for a 1ST down
89.3%
0.0
Q1 11:51
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for no gain to the WMU 31
89.3%
0.0
Q1 11:43
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 9 yds to the WMU 22
89.3%
0.0
Q1 10:58
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the WMU 21 for a 1ST down
89.2%
-0.1
Q1 10:17
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST down
89.2%
0.0
Q1 9:37
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson Clement
89.2%
0.0
Q1 9:31
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 10
89.2%
0.0
Q1 8:51
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
89.2%
0.0
Q1 8:47
David Olano 28 yd FG GOOD
92.5%
+3.3
WMU · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 19 yds
Q1 8:47
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.3%
-0.2
Q1 8:40
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Devin Miles
90.7%
-1.6
Q1 8:35
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 23
90.7%
0.0
Q1 7:55
Brady Jones pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 12 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST down
90.7%
0.0
Q1 7:27
Devin Miles run for 4 yds to the WMU 39
90.7%
0.0
Q1 6:47
Devin Miles run for 4 yds to the WMU 43
90.3%
-0.5
Q1 6:06
Devin Miles run for 1 yd to the WMU 44
89.1%
-1.1
Q1 5:23
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 12 yds to the ILL 29
89.2%
+0.1
ILL · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 5:14
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 6 yds to the ILL 35
91.2%
+2.0
Q1 4:45
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the ILL 38
91.2%
0.0
Q1 4:00
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 36
91.2%
0.0
Q1 3:18
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 24
91.1%
-0.2
WMU · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q1 2:55
Brady Jones pass complete to Devin Miles for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 23
89.4%
-1.7
Q1 2:40
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Blake Bosma
89.4%
0.0
Q1 2:35
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Terence Marshall
89.1%
-0.3
Q1 2:24
Ryan Millmore punt for 45 yds
89.2%
+0.1
ILL · Drive 5TD · 10 plays · 68 yds
Q1 2:05
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 9 yds to the ILL 41
90.8%
+1.5
Q1 1:53
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 36
90.8%
0.0
Q1 1:20
(01:26) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ILL25 (Franklin,Josh) PENALTY WMU Horse Collar Tackle (Franklin,Josh) 15 yards from ILL36 to WMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
90.8%
0.0
Q1 1:02
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner Arkin
91.1%
+0.3
Q1 0:56
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 9 yds to the WMU 40
91.1%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST down
90.9%
-0.2
Q2 14:54
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin Dixon
90.9%
0.0
Q2 14:42
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy for 25 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST down
90.9%
0.0
Q2 14:14
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the WMU 6
90.7%
-0.2
Q2 13:31
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 6 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
94.1%
+3.4
WMU · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 13:31
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.0%
-0.1
Q2 13:25
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 28
94.0%
0.0
Q2 12:47
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 34
94.0%
0.0
Q2 12:11
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 33
94.0%
0.0
Q2 11:29
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 24
93.9%
-0.1
ILL · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 11:26
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik Elzy
93.9%
0.0
Q2 11:21
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 28
93.9%
0.0
Q2 10:43
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik Elzy
93.9%
0.0
Q2 10:35
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 29
93.9%
0.0
WMU · Drive 8MISSED FG · 12 plays · 43 yds
Q2 10:29
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Terence Marshall
93.9%
0.0
Q2 10:19
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 8 yds to the WMU 37
93.9%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 7 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST down
93.6%
-0.3
Q2 9:03
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 48
93.6%
0.0
Q2 8:21
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the ILL 48
93.8%
+0.1
Q2 7:36
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST down
93.6%
-0.2
Q2 6:58
Broc Lowry run for 16 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST down
93.6%
0.0
Q2 6:32
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass complete short left to Cabana,Cole caught at ILL30, for 3 yards to the ILL22 (Scott,Miles), out of bounds PENALTY WMU Holding (Dieudonne,Malique) 10 yards from ILL25 to ILL35. NO PLAY.
92.9%
-0.7
Q2 6:15
Ofa Mataele run for 3 yds to the ILL 32
92.2%
-0.7
Q2 5:52
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
92.3%
0.0
Q2 5:44
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds to the ILL 28
92.3%
0.0
Q2 5:05
Palmer Domschke 46 yd FG MISSED
93.1%
+0.8
ILL · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q2 5:05
(05:05) PENALTY ILL False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from ILL28 to ILL23. NO PLAY.
94.3%
+1.2
Q2 4:58
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jarvarius Sims for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 15
93.7%
-0.6
Q2 4:13
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 3 yds to the ILL 18
93.8%
+0.1
Q2 3:36
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 13 yds to the ILL 31
93.8%
0.0
Q2 2:51
Keelan Crimmins punt for 50 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for no gain to the WMU 19
94.3%
+0.5
WMU · Drive 10DOWNS · 17 plays · 80 yds
Q2 2:45
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the WMU 22
93.3%
-1.0
Q2 2:00
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 10 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST down
93.3%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Illinois, clock 02:00
94.0%
+0.7
Q2 1:57
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Baylin Brooks
94.0%
0.0
Q2 1:50
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 15 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST down
94.0%
0.0
Q2 1:24
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 9 yds to the ILL 44
94.0%
+0.1
Q2 1:24
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete deep left to Chenault,Aveion thrown to ILL20 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Cox Jr.,Torrie) 15 yards from ILL44 to ILL29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
93.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:16
Michael Brescia sacked by Pat Farrell for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 34
93.8%
-0.1
Q2 0:55
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 13 yds to the ILL 21
92.6%
-1.2
Q2 0:49
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short right to Marshall,Terence thrown to ILL08 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Patterson,Kaleb) 11 yard from ILL21 to ILL10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
93.3%
+0.7
Q2 0:44
Ofa Mataele run for 3 yds to the ILL 7
93.3%
0.0
Q2 0:44
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:44
94.7%
+1.4
Q2 0:29
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds to the ILL 1
94.7%
0.0
Q2 0:28
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:28
95.1%
+0.4
Q2 0:17
Devin Miles run for no gain to the ILL 1
95.2%
+0.1
Q2 0:03
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:03
96.4%
+1.2
Q2 0:00
Michael Brescia run for no gain to the ILL 1
96.4%
0.0
WMU · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q3 15:00
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.2%
-2.2
Q3 14:55
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 25
93.1%
-1.1
Q3 14:11
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 24
93.1%
0.0
Q3 13:38
Broc Lowry sacked by Leon Lowery Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 22
93.4%
+0.3
Q3 13:00
Ryan Millmore punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 47
93.4%
0.0
ILL · Drive 12TD · 5 plays · 53 yds
Q3 12:56
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 48
94.9%
+1.5
Q3 12:12
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 24 yds to the WMU 28 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q3 11:42
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 15 yds to the WMU 13 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q3 11:19
Kaden Feagin run for 10 yds to the WMU 3 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q3 10:59
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
99.2%
+4.2
WMU · Drive 13PUNT · 8 plays · 31 yds
Q3 10:59
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.2%
0.0
Q3 10:43
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST down
96.8%
-2.4
Q3 10:20
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the WMU 42
96.8%
0.0
Q3 9:43
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q3 9:06
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the ILL 49
96.8%
0.0
Q3 8:20
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 5 yds to the ILL 44
96.8%
0.0
Q3 7:51
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Christian Leary
96.7%
-0.1
Q3 7:42
Ryan Millmore punt for 44 yds for a touchback
96.8%
+0.1
ILL · Drive 14TD · 13 plays · 80 yds
Q3 7:35
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the ILL 21
99.3%
+2.5
Q3 7:01
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 22 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q3 6:33
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 9 yds to the WMU 48
99.3%
0.0
Q3 6:07
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 10 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q3 5:42
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 9 yds to the WMU 29
99.4%
0.0
Q3 5:16
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 5 yds to the WMU 24 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q3 4:44
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 25
99.4%
0.0
Q3 4:13
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the WMU 17
99.4%
0.0
Q3 3:28
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the WMU 13 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q3 2:54
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Elzy,Malik thrown to WMU00 PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Sims,Jarvarius) 11 yard from WMU13 to WMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.4%
0.0
Q3 2:48
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds for a TD Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive Holding (Talique Williams) declined (David Olano KICK)
99.8%
+0.4
Q3 2:48
PENALTY WMU Offside (Al-Garawi,Mustafi) 2 yards from WMU03 to WMU01. NO PLAY.
99.4%
-0.4
Q3 2:48
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Western Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brennan Wooten) to the 50 yard line
99.4%
0.0
WMU · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q3 2:45
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
99.5%
+0.1
Q3 2:30
Brady Jones pass complete to Ofa Mataele for 2 yds to the WMU 15
99.5%
0.0
Q3 1:52
Brady Jones sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 10
99.5%
0.0
Q3 1:14
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 47
99.5%
0.0
Q3 1:14
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 47
99.5%
0.0
ILL · Drive 16TD · 5 plays · 53 yds
Q3 1:09
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 49
99.8%
+0.3
Q3 0:35
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the WMU 45
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 14:47
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 35 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 14:06
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 6 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
99.9%
0.0
WMU · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q4 14:06
David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:01
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 29
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 13:25
Ofa Mataele run for 3 yds to the WMU 32
99.8%
0.0
Q4 12:49
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
99.8%
0.0
Q4 12:39
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 7 yds to the ILL 28
99.8%
0.0
ILL · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 12:21
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 27
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 11:51
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 6 yds to the ILL 33
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:09
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Ashton Hollins
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:02
Keelan Crimmins punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 14
99.9%
0.0
WMU · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q4 10:56
Cole Cabana run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 13
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 10:18
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cole Cabana for 2 yds to the WMU 15
99.8%
0.0
Q4 9:49
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
99.8%
0.0
Q4 9:39
Ryan Millmore punt for 27 yds
99.8%
0.0
ILL · Drive 20TD · 8 plays · 42 yds
Q4 9:33
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the WMU 35
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 8:47
Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WMU 42
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:16
Kaden Feagin run for 26 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:36
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the WMU 8
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:55
(06:58) Feagin,Kaden rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:55 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU08 to WMU13. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:41
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the WMU 10
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:59
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 8 yds to the WMU 2 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:15
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
100.0%
0.0
WMU · Drive 21DOWNS · 9 plays · 38 yds
Q4 5:08
Lucas Osada kickoff for 65 yds , Devin Miles return for 20 yds to the WMU 20
100.0%
0.0
Q4 5:01
Ofa Mataele run for 21 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST down
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 4:26
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 45
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:41
Tre' Hartwell run for 10 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:08
Tre' Hartwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 46
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:27
Tre' Hartwell run for 1 yd to the ILL 45
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Illinois, clock 02:00
99.7%
-0.1
Q4 1:54
Cole Cabana run for 3 yds to the ILL 42
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:10
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Tre' Hartwell
99.7%
0.0
ILL · Drive 22END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q4 1:02
E. Hampton takes a knee
99.8%
+0.1
Q4 0:00
E. Hampton takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:59
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q2 13:31
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 6 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+3.4
FG · Q1 8:47
David Olano 28 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
YardLine · model v3Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com