2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreHCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Nebraska at HCU21 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 11:12: Kyle Cunanan 24 yd FG GOOD — HCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:14: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — HCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:14: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 39 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:34: Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:38: Williams Nwaneri 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick) — NEB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:12NEB 4th & 6 at HCU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%91% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:01HCU 4th & 8 at HCU 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 4:04HCU 4th & 8 at HCU 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 0:16HCU 4th & 11 at HCU 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 6:40HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 40, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 13:19HCU 4th & 4 at HCU 31, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00HCU 4th & 1 at HCU 45, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00HCU 4th & 1 at NEB 43, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.228% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:36HCU 4th & 15 at NEB 47, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:18NEB 4th & 2 at HCU 2, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.194% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:50HCU 4th & 2 at HCU 9, down 52Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:50NEB 4th & 1 at HCU 21, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.174% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8HCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:14NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:14NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:34NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:38NEB Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:52NEB Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:19NEB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:34HCU Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:01NEB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:14NEB Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1FG17 plays · 66 yds · 14:55100% → 99%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 2 yds to the HCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
99.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 40 yds to the HCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
98.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 2 yds to the HCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
98.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 40 yds to the HCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:060% → 1%
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-6
99.6%
Jake Weir sacked by Marques Watson-Trent for a loss of 6 yards to the HCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD7 plays · 45 yds · 2:47100% → 99%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 4 yds to the HCU 41Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
99.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds to the HCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
99.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Kwinten Ives for 15 yds to the HCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ives,Kwinten rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HCU11 (Blowe,Ravonte) PENALTY HCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from HCU14 to HCU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:101% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD3 plays · 84 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
99.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 13 yds to the NEB 29 for a 1ST down Houston Christian Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (TJ Smith) to the NEB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 39 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:491% → 1%
Q1 3:05
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+5
99.4%
Jake Weir pass complete to Tamarcus Gray Jr. for 5 yds to the HCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 16 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the HCU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 17 yds to the HCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 16 yds · 1:501% → 0%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.5%
Jake Weir pass complete to Ja'Ryan Wallace for 6 yds to the HCU 19Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+15
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Weir,Jake pass incomplete deep left to Wallace,Ja'Ryan thrown to HCU43 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Jones,Donovan) 15 yards from HCU19 to HCU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Jake Weir pass complete to Ja'Ryan Wallace for 7 yds to the HCU 34Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.7%
Jake Weir pass complete to Ja'Ryan Wallace for 4 yds to the HCU 39Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Brady Young punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacory Barney Jr. at the NEB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 9 yds to the NEB 34Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Cortez Mills Jr. for 14 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+22
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Cortez Mills Jr. for 22 yds to the HCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 11PUNT15 plays · 18 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Ja'Ryan Wallace for 10 yds to the HCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Ja'Ryan Wallace for 4 yds to the NEB 41Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.9%
PENALTY HCU False Start (Drake,Josiah) 5 yards from NEB34 to NEB39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
run for 7 yds to the NEB 46 fumbled, recovered by HCU Xai'Shaun EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 22
OPP 46
-11
99.9%
Jake Weir sacked by Dasan McCullough for a loss of 11 yards to the HCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · -10 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NEB41, End Of Play PENALTY NEB Holding (Evans,Justin) 10 yards from NEB27 to NEB17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q3 13:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Brady Young punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Mozee at the NEB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14TD8 plays · 78 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
HCUDrive 15TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 9:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 8 yds to the HCU 31Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 9 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST down Nebraska Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashton Murphy) to the NEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Xai'Shaun Edwards run for 45 yds for a TD (Charlie Weinrich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:33100% → 100%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
PENALTY HCU Offside (Littles,Sincere) 5 yards from NEB25 to NEB30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+20
99.9%
TJ Lateef pass complete to Kenneth Williams for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lateef,TJ pass incomplete short right to Smith,Keelan thrown to HCU03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Roberts,D.J.) 15 yards from HCU19 to HCU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 17PUNT17 plays · 28 yds · 9:250% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Tamarcus Gray Jr. for 8 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Jake Weir pass complete to Mason Graham for no gain to the NEB 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.9%
PENALTY HCU False Start (Bess,Matthew) 5 yards from NEB42 to NEB47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
HCUDrive 19FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
100.0%
Jordan Montanez run for 1 yd to the HCU 8 Jordan Montanez fumbled, recovered by NEB Kahmir PrescottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 3:50
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+38
100.0%
Brady Young punt for 59 yds , Isaiah Mozee returns for 38 yds to the HCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 9 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
100.0%
Jalyn Gramstad pass complete to Isaiah Mozee for 3 yds to the HCU 27Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
100.0%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Hammerbeck,Shawn) 5 yards from HCU27 to HCU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+6
100.0%
Jalyn Gramstad pass complete to Conor Booth for 6 yds to the HCU 26Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
100.0%
Jalyn Gramstad pass complete to Conor Booth for 5 yds to the HCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:34
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q1 11:12
Kyle Cunanan 24 yd FG GOOD
-0.1
TD · Q1 6:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
-0.1