2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:58 · Nick Poulos pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 2 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:29: Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 16 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:07: Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 67 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock PAT MISSED) — OHIO win probability +5.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q3 11:19: Jayden Fielding 22 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:16: Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:14: Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 11:20OSU 4th & 4 at OHIO 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%40% to convertField goal94.9%−<0.193% to makePunt94.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:13OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q1 1:54OSU 4th & 2 at OHIO 20, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call92.5%−0.175% to makePunt92.0%−0.6average punt
- Q1 0:15OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q2 9:58OSU 4th & 2 at OHIO 2, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−0.494% to makePunt89.0%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:58OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:05OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 44, down 6Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:46OHIO 4th & 26 at OHIO 9, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 0:24OHIO 4th & 7 at OSU 26, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call7.0%64% to makePunt5.7%−1.3average punt
- Q3 11:19OSU 4th & 3 at OHIO 4, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.2%45% to convertField goalTheir call85.7%−0.593% to makePunt82.2%−4.0average punt
- Q3 8:14OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.2%−1.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%average punt
- Q3 3:03OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q4 12:02OHIO 4th & 17 at OHIO 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 9:29OHIO 4th & 9 at OSU 41, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.9%32% to makePunt0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:00OHIO 4th & 4 at OSU 33, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goal0.1%49% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 2:29OSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:07OHIO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call13.5%97% to makeGo for two13.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:16OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:14OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:36OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1DOWNS9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
96.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 9 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
96.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 42 yds to the OHIO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
95.7%
Julian Sayin sacked by Anas Luqman for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:074% → 5%
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
95.7%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game (Jackson Jr.,Kenyatta) 5 yards from OU13 to OU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
95.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 1 yd to the OHIO 22Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
95.1%
Magnus Haines punt for 48 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for no gain to the OSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FG11 plays · 52 yds · 6:1995% → 94%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
95.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 14 yds to the OHIO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
95.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to James Peoples for 1 yd to the OHIO 40Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
95.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds to the OHIO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
95.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
95.2%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Tshabola,Tegra) 5 yards from OU22 to OU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+6
95.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 6 yds to the OHIO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:396% → 7%
OSUDrive 5FG11 plays · 63 yds · 5:0293% → 93%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
93.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 30 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
93.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-7
93.4%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 8 yds to the OHIO 19 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Personal Foul (Tegra Tshabola) to the OHIO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 5 yds to the OHIO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 3:538% → 9%
OSUDrive 7TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:3692% → 95%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
92.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 11 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
92.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.9%
Ohio State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 16 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT10 plays · -16 yds · 0:436% → 5%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.2%
Nick Poulos sacked by Kayden McDonald for a loss of 4 yards to the OHIO 21Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
94.7%
PENALTY OU False Start (Rhodes Jr.,Shedrick) 5 yards from OU21 to OU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
94.9%
PENALTY OU False Start (Weatherspoon,Davion) 5 yards from OU22 to OU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-8
94.9%
Nick Poulos sacked by Caden Curry for a loss of 8 yards to the OHIO 9Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
94.9%
Magnus Haines punt for 53 yds , Jeremiah Smith returns for no gain to the OSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:2695% → 95%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+10
95.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to James Peoples for 10 yds to the OSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
95.4%
Julian Sayin pass intercepted Michael Mack II return for 4 yds to the OSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FG8 plays · 14 yds · 0:567% → 9%
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
93.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Poulos,Nick pass incomplete short right thrown to OSU25 QB hurried by Atkinson,Beau PENALTY OSU Holding (Igbinosun,Davison) 10 yards from OSU39 to OSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:538% → 13%
OSUDrive 13FG7 plays · 71 yds · 2:4888% → 90%
Q3 14:07
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+3
89.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 3 yds to the OHIO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 3:0510% → 10%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 7 yds to the OHIO 32Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
89.8%
Parker Navarro sacked by Arvell Reese for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 33Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+28
89.6%
Magnus Haines punt for 54 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 28 yds to the OSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD4 plays · 59 yds · 1:5891% → 96%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
95.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:136% → 5%
OSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 85 yds · 3:4995% → 99%
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
95.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 10 yds to the OSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
95.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 5 yds to the OSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
96.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 14 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+49
99.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 2:121% → 1%
OSUDrive 19INT3 plays · 15 yds · 1:3399% → 99%
OHIODrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q4 9:29
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Duncan Brune for no gain Duncan Brune fumbled, recovered by OHIOSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD5 plays · 59 yds · 2:5399% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 7 yds to the OHIO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22END OF GAME16 plays · 57 yds · 6:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:07
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 67 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock PAT MISSED)
-5.3
TD · Q3 6:16
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+4.8
FG · Q3 11:19
Jayden Fielding 22 yd FG GOOD
+2.4