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ILL

Illinois 45 at Duke 19

DUKE
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:41 · Jordan Anderson run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:01: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 8 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +8.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:34: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +17.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: Hank Beatty run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +12.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:00: Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — DUKE win probability +10.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 0 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:26DUKE 4th & 4 at ILL 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:05ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:41ILL 4th & 1 at DUKE 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−2.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:11ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:16ILL 4th & 1 at DUKE 8, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−3.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−13.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:00DUKE 4th & 6 at ILL 6, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:04ILL 4th & 7 at DUKE 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:45DUKE 4th & 5 at ILL 32, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 1:51ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08DUKE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:34ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:54ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:00DUKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:14ILL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:58ILL Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:2942% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
41.8%
Moore, Jaquez rush for loss of 2 yards to the DUKE31, PENALTY ILL face mask 15 yards to the DUKE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
42.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
42.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 6 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
42.8%
Darian Mensah run for 6 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
43.1%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-1
43.3%
Darian Mensah run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+3
43.4%
Darian Mensah run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
43.8%
Todd Pelino 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1056% → 55%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
43.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 21 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
43.6%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 48Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
44.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-8
44.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 40Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 21
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1745% → 45%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.5%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 20Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 8 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
44.7%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
44.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 45 yds, downed at the ILL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3255% → 53%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
45.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 2 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+14
45.8%
Altmyer, Luke pass incomplete to Dixon, Collin (Robinson, Kimari), PENALTY DUKE pass interference 14 yards to the ILL43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILL.Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik Elzy, broken up by Caleb WeaverSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
45.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-3
45.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 43
-5
46.7%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 38Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+4
47.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 48 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 4 yds to the DUKE 18 Que'Sean Brown fumbled, recovered by ILL Tyler StrainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0755% → 59%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
44.8%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 19Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+5
45.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 5 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+13
45.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 13 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.8%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the DUKE 1Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 5:3743% → 47%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 10 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 2 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
43.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jayden Moore for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
50
+9
44.8%
Nate Sheppard run for 9 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
45.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 10 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.7%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
45.6%
Illinois Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
45.7%
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
45.1%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the ILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
46.0%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the ILL 19Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+11
46.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 11 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-15
47.2%
Mensah, Darian pass incomplete to King, Landen, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Hasley, Jeremiah) 15 yards to the ILL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 0
OPP 23
+5
46.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 0
OPP 18
0
47.0%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 0
OPP 18
-5
45.2%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 0
OPP 23
0
45.2%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
46.5%
Todd Pelino 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0355% → 67%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
44.8%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Tanner Arkin) to the ILL 20Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-6
45.0%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. and Tre Freeman for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 14Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+27
45.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 27 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
43.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 11 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
42.8%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 49Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Justin Bowick, broken up by Chandler RiversSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+12
43.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 12 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
43.7%
Jordan Anderson run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
42.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 33 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
41.0%
Altmyer, Luke pass incomplete, PENALTY ILL holding (Priestly, Melvin) 10 yards to the DUKE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
41.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 6 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
41.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 1 yd to the DUKE 8Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 8 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:5535% → 38%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
35.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Chase Tyler for 62 yds to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
39.1%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
39.1%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
37.5%
Darian Mensah sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 18 Darian Mensah fumbled, forced by Gabe Jacas, recovered by ILL Matthew Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4165% → 67%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
34.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+15
34.8%
Altmyer, Luke pass incomplete to Dixon, Collin, PENALTY DUKE roughing passer (Rivers, Chandler) 15 yards to the ILL33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILL.Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
33.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+15
34.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 15 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
31.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
30.6%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-12
29.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kendall Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the ILL 41Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
33.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 0:5833% → 52%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.0%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
32.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 13 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.7%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
33.5%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper BarkateSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
32.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jayden Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
35.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 35 yds to the ILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
37.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 2 yds to the ILL 15Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
37.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+6
35.2%
Mensah, Darian pass incomplete to Anthony, Andrel, PENALTY ILL roughing passer (Brown, Daniel) 6 yards to the ILL5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2155% → 74%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
44.3%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 25Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
46.9%
Duke Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
44.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 36 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson Clement, broken up by Chandler RiversSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
41.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
40.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the DUKE 16Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
40.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+8
42.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the DUKE 8Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
44.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3031% → 31%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 7 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
30.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 5 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
31.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 24 yds Sahmir Hagans fumbled, forced by Matthew Bailey, recovered by ILL Kaleb PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5974% → 86%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
26.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson Clement, broken up by Luke MergottSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+33
26.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Roughing Passer (Wesley Williams) to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
14.0%
Hank Beatty run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4218% → 29%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
18.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 24 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.1%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+41
19.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 41 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
20.8%
Nate Sheppard run for 6 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.7%
Nate Sheppard run for no gain to the ILL 4Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
19.1%
Darian Mensah run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 6Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:4173% → 85%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
26.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 20 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
23.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+12
23.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 12 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
22.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+21
21.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 21 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
20.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
19.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the DUKE 12Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
20.7%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the DUKE 12Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
23.5%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Melvin Priestly) to the DUKE 17Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
15.4%
David Olano 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5818% → 20%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.2%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
18.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 3 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
17.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 17 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
18.5%
Darian Mensah run for 3 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+20
19.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 20 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
20.8%
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jayden Moore, broken up by Torrie Cox Jr.Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
20.2%
Darian Mensah pass intercepted Tanner Heckel return for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 6:3689% → 99%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
11.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy for 11 yds to the ILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
10.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+11
9.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 11 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
8.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 41Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
7.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy for 10 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
7.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
6.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 11 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
6.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+25
5.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 25 yds to the DUKE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
5.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the DUKE 2Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.3%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the DUKE 2Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.3%
Darian Mensah sacked by Tanner Heckel for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 23 Darian Mensah fumbled, forced by Tanner Heckel, recovered by ILL Malachi Hood , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.2%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 23 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
Henry Belin IV run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
0.1%
Nate Sheppard run for 6 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+17
0.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 17 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.1%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Peyton Jones for 5 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jayden MooreSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Chase TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:34
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 0:08
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q3 6:54
Hank Beatty run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com