2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadSIU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreSIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:15 · Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the SIU 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:08: DJ Williams pass complete to Ryan Schwendeman for 4 yds for a TD (Paul Geelen KICK) — SIU win probability +1.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:33: Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 29 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:15: Spencer Porath 43 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:48: Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +3.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:41: Paul Geelen 53 yd FG GOOD — SIU win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 14:56SIU 4th & 7 at SIU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q2 10:41PUR 4th & 7 at SIU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snapGo for it84.6%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call84.7%91% to makePunt83.1%−1.6average punt
- Q2 9:38SIU 4th & 1 at SIU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:21SIU 4th & 2 at PUR 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.7%57% to convertField goal15.3%−1.527% to makePunt15.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:36PUR 4th & 3 at SIU 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.6%53% to convertField goal82.9%−0.840% to makePunt82.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 11:12SIU 4th & 12 at SIU 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it9.8%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q3 9:15PUR 4th & 1 at SIU 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.5%70% to convertField goal86.5%−1.934% to makePunt86.7%−1.7average punt
- Q3 6:15PUR 4th & 12 at SIU 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.4%−1.023% to convertField goalTheir call88.3%64% to makePunt84.9%−3.5average punt
- Q3 3:58SIU 4th & 20 at SIU 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it6.6%−1.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q4 7:41SIU 4th & 28 at PUR 35, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.67% to convertField goalTheir call1.4%45% to makePunt0.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:57PUR 4th & 1 at SIU 14, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%71% to convertField goal98.5%−0.284% to makePunt97.6%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:29SIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%97% to makeGo for two10.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:34PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:08SIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.3%97% to makeGo for two13.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:33PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:21PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:48PUR Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSIUDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:297% → 9%
Q1 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
92.9%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jay Jones for 21 yds to the SIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
92.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Fabian McCray for 9 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
92.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Lashaun Lester for 18 yds to the PUR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3591% → 91%
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+13
90.5%
Ryan Browne pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 13 yds to the SIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 4 yds to the SIU 37Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
90.1%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass incomplete short right to Mockobee,Devin thrown to SIU25, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SIU Pass Interference (Behm,Andrew) 12 yards from SIU37 to SIU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
91.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 13 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 3TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:099% → 12%
PURDrive 4TD10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2189% → 90%
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
87.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the SIU 44Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+15
87.2%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass complete short left to Tuggle,Nitro caught at SIU30, for 0 yards to the SIU44 PENALTY SIU Roughing The Passer (Behm,Andrew) 15 yards from SIU44 to SIU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 29 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2411% → 12%
Q1 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.2%
DJ Williams pass complete to Edward Robinson for 4 yds to the SIU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-6
87.9%
DJ Williams sacked by Charles Correa for a loss of 6 yards to the SIU 28Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+17
88.5%
Paul Geelen punt for 48 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 17 yds to the PUR 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5589% → 88%
Q2 13:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+18
88.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 18 yds to the SIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
88.8%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to Branch,Arhmad thrown to SIU00 PENALTY SIU Pass Interference (Williams,Jagger) 15 yards from SIU36 to SIU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 7DOWNS12 plays · 30 yds · 4:1313% → 15%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 9 yds to the SIU 34Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
86.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Chandler Chapman for 3 yds to the SIU 41Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
85.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 7 yds to the SIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
85.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 6 yds to the PUR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD14 plays · 55 yds · 4:5788% → 87%
Q2 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
87.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds to the SIU 36Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+5
86.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Jesse Watson for 5 yds to the SIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+21
86.7%
Ryan Browne run for 12 yds to the SIU 18 for a 1ST down Southern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Jagger Williams) to the SIU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 34 yds · 1:0811% → 12%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.1%
DJ Williams pass complete to Tae Marrero Jr. for 9 yds to the SIU 34Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
88.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jay Jones for 10 yds to the SIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
87.7%
DJ Williams pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 7 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
87.4%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jackson Parker for no gain to the PUR 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
87.8%
Paul Geelen 59 yd FG MISSED , Malachi Thomas return for 7 yds to the PUR 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10INT5 plays · 28 yds · 1:0190% → 91%
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
89.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 18 yds to the SIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2510% → 10%
PURDrive 12FG10 plays · 23 yds · 4:4991% → 93%
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
90.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Christian Moore for 2 yds to the SIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 2:078% → 7%
Q3 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
92.2%
DJ Williams pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 8 yds to the SIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
92.2%
Southern Illinois Penalty, Block Below Waist (-15 Yards) to the SIU 25Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Paul Geelen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the PUR 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD15 plays · 70 yds · 7:0394% → 100%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
94.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 10 yds to the SIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
94.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 21 yds to the SIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+9
95.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 9 yds to the SIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 15FG12 plays · 40 yds · 3:471% → 3%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
DJ Williams pass complete to Edward Robinson for 2 yds to the SIU 23Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.1%
DJ Williams pass incomplete to Jackson Parker for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Personal Foul (Breeon Ishmail) to the SIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
99.0%
DJ Williams pass complete to Kyle Thomas for 10 yds to the PUR 49 for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Charles Correa) to the PUR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-6
98.8%
DJ Williams sacked by CJ Nunnally IV for a loss of 6 yards to the PUR 23Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 16
OPP 23
-12
98.9%
DJ Williams sacked by CJ Nunnally IV for a loss of 12 yards to the PUR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16DOWNS17 plays · 59 yds · 6:3599% → 99%
Q4 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+16
99.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 16 yds to the SIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 17END OF GAME5 plays · 32 yds · 0:472% → 2%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
98.2%
DJ Williams pass complete to Lem Wash for 11 yds to the SIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:48
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+3
TD · Q1 1:33
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 29 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+2.6
FG · Q3 6:15
Spencer Porath 43 yd FG GOOD
+2.4