2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · SHI Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · D'Shawntae Jones run for 5 yds to the M-OH 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:11: D'Shawntae Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:18: Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:20: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 11 yds for a TD Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keith Reynolds) declined (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:08: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:42: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:34M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q2 12:34RUTG 4th & 21 at M-OH 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.2%−0.88% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%74% to makePunt77.3%−1.7average punt
- Q2 5:55M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q3 11:57RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q3 4:10M-OH 4th & 19 at M-OH 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.0%−2.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q3 0:00RUTG 4th & 1 at M-OH 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.3%71% to convertField goal93.2%−1.274% to makePunt89.5%−4.8average punt
- Q4 12:11M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 43, down 14Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:42M-OH 4th & 8 at RUTG 49, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:25RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:11M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.9%97% to makeGo for two17.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:18RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:20RUTG Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:08RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:42RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 1:53RUTG Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0511% → 11%
RUTGDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5889% → 89%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds to the RUTG 31Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
88.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 6 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
88.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
88.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 2 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+15
88.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 15 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+13
88.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 13 yds to the M-OH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-4
87.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Silas Walters for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 14Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
88.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 14 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0012% → 14%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 15 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
88.2%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short left to Reynolds,Keith caught at MOH39, for 12 yards to the RUT48 (Miller,Cam) PENALTY MOH Illegal Formation 5 yards from MOH40 to MOH35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+62
88.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 62 yds to the RUTG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG18 plays · 54 yds · 7:3186% → 84%
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
85.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
85.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+13
85.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 13 yds to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+7
84.8%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete short middle to Strong,Ian thrown to MOH04 PENALTY MOH Holding (Martin,Kaleb) 7 yards from MOH14 to MOH07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-14
84.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jackson Kuwatch for a loss of 14 yards to the M-OH 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5INT8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4516% → 17%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Kam Perry for 14 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 3 yds to the RUTG 19Similar
Q2 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
-68
83.0%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Bo Mascoe return for 68 yds to the M-OH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5386% → 89%
M-OHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1511% → 11%
RUTGDrive 8TD12 plays · 70 yds · 4:2288% → 94%
Q2 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
88.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
88.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds to the RUTG 47Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
88.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 10 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
88.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 15 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
89.3%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Campbell Jr.,CJ rush left for 1 yard gain to the MOH00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:25 PENALTY RUT Holding (Chin,Dantae) 10 yards from MOH01 to MOH11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
94.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 11 yds for a TD Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keith Reynolds) declined (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG10 plays · 53 yds · 1:058% → 11%
RUTGDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0391% → 91%
Q3 11:57
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
91.3%
Jakob Anderson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lynel Billups-Williams at the M-OH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:369% → 18%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+69
91.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 69 yds to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
90.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete short right to Weaver,Cole thrown to RUT05 broken up by Miller,Cam PENALTY RUT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Henderson,Jacobie) 4 yards from RUT09 to RUT05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0686% → 94%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
85.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 11 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+11
85.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
87.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 9 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
87.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 4 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
93.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:508% → 7%
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-32
92.4%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short middle to Perry,Kam caught at MOH34, for 32 yards to the RUT40, End Of Play PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Colzie,Deion) MOH UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 21 yard from MOH28 to MOH07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+7
93.0%
Pierse Stainton punt for 50 yds , DT Sheffield returns for 7 yds to the RUTG 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14DOWNS11 plays · 35 yds · 4:0394% → 96%
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
94.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Bai Jobe for a loss of 2 yards to the RUTG 39Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+11
94.1%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass complete short right to Sheffield,DT caught at RUT50, for 11 yards to the RUT50 (Walters,Silas) PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Walters,Silas) 11 yard from RUT39 to RUT50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
95.8%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete short left to Duff,KJ thrown to MOH30, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Walker Jr.,Adrian) 10 yards from MOH40 to MOH30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
95.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 3 yds to the M-OH 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:436% → 5%
RUTGDrive 16TD11 plays · 78 yds · 6:2096% → 100%
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
96.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the RUTG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+11
96.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 11 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+15
97.0%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep right to Strong,Ian thrown to MOH19 PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Walker Jr.,Adrian) 15 yards from RUT43 to MOH42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+21
97.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 21 yds to the M-OH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
99.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 5 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 24 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Djibril Abdou Rahman for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 44Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 8
OPP 49
-3
99.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Dariel Djabome for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19END OF GAME5 plays · 18 yds · 1:410% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:08
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 1:20
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 11 yds for a TD Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keith Reynolds) declined (Jai Patel KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 8:18
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+3.4