2025 · Week 2 · Sep 5, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Antonio Chadha 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:44: Hayden Eligon II 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Lawson Albright Run for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:06: Luke Akers 35 Yd Field Goal — NU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:40: Luke Akers 25 Yd Field Goal — NU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:53WIU 4th & 4 at WIU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q2 13:53NU 4th & 10 at NU 41, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 13:30WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 15, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 10:47NU 4th & 18 at NU 44, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 7:46WIU 4th & 8 at NU 45, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.134% to convertField goal2.4%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 5:38NU 4th & 10 at NU 10, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 4:02WIU 4th & 15 at WIU 43, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 0:28NU 4th & 1 at WIU 6, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%69% to convertField goal98.0%−0.191% to makePunt97.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 11:19WIU 4th & 1 at NU 29, down 23Close callKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%71% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%−0.458% to makePunt0.9%−1.2average punt
- Q3 7:06NU 4th & 8 at WIU 17, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%80% to makePunt97.3%−0.8average punt
- Q3 5:57WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 21, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 1:40NU 4th & 7 at WIU 7, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%91% to makePunt98.7%−0.8average punt
- Q3 1:10WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 22, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:39WIU 4th & 5 at WIU 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:58NU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:44NU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick96.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:43NU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:07NU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:47WIU Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNUDrive 1DOWNS5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1398% → 98%
Q1 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
97.7%
Preston Stone pass to Ricky Ahumaraeze for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:433% → 3%
Q1 9:53
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+2
97.4%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 47 yds to the NU 22, Drew Wagner returns for 2 yds to the NU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3DOWNS6 plays · 73 yds · 2:5597% → 98%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+46
97.4%
Preston Stone pass to Griffin Wilde for 46 yds to the WIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
97.3%
Preston Stone pass to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds to the WIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Hayden Eligon II 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Lawson Albright Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4INT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:592% → 2%
NUDrive 5DOWNS2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2998% → 98%
WIUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q1 1:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+4
98.0%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 38 yds to the , Drew Wagner returns for 4 yds to the NU 26, Northwestern Penalty, illegalblockinback (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
WIUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q2 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
98.1%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 33 yds to the WIU , punt out-of-bounds at the WIU Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3898% → 98%
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.3%
Preston Stone pass to Hayden Eligon II, Northwestern Penalty, ineligibledownfieldonpass (Martes Lewis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 50 yds · 2:542% → 2%
NUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5898% → 98%
Q2 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-1
98.3%
Preston Stone sacked by Peyton Bradford for a loss of 1 yards to the NU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:282% → 2%
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
97.9%
Chris Irvin sacked by Michael Kilbane for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS17 plays · 77 yds · 3:2998% → 99%
Q2 1:41
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
98.7%
Cam Porter run, Western Illinois Penalty, offside (Esteban Guillory)Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
98.8%
Preston Stone pass to Griffin Wilde for 16 yds to the WIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
98.8%
Preston Stone pass to Ricky Ahumaraeze for 13 yds to the WIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 14DOWNS3 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 50 yds · 3:272% → 2%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
98.2%
Christian Anaya pass to Demari Davis for 31 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 53 yds · 4:0599% → 99%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
98.8%
Preston Stone pass to Hayden Eligon II for 12 yds to the WIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:571% → 1%
NUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 64 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
WIUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q3 1:10
4TH & 10
OWN 22
-3
99.9%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 32 yds to the NU 43, Drew Wagner returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 53 yds · 5:18100% → 100%
Q4 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Caleb Komolafe run, Western Illinois Penalty, unsportsmanlikeconduct (3 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:380% → 0%
NUDrive 22TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
WIUDrive 23DOWNS11 plays · 67 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q4 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
100.0%
Cason Carswell pass to Alex Williams for 13 yds to the WIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+14
100.0%
Cason Carswell pass to Brandon Lanier for 14 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
100.0%
Cason Carswell pass to Alex Williams for 3 yds to the NU 17, Northwestern Penalty, facemask (Jalen Lewis)Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Christian Anaya 8 Yd pass from Cason Carswell (Antonio Chadha Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 11 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 7:06
Luke Akers 35 Yd Field Goal
+0.7
TD · Q1 6:44
Hayden Eligon II 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Lawson Albright Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+0.3
FG · Q3 1:40
Luke Akers 25 Yd Field Goal
+0.3