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BC

Boston College 40 at Michigan State 42

MSU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q4Q3OTQ3Q4OTOT2OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.9MSU 53.2%Martin Connington 50 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 24 · Q3 2:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:17 · Martin Connington 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore differential
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q4Q3OTQ3Q4OTOT2OTPlay 169Pregame prior+2.0Home team on offense+0.7Time remaining+0.6Defense timeouts−0.1Offense timeouts−0.2Score differential−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 8 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +5.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:45: Timeout Michigan State, clock 07:45 — MSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:00: Luca Lombardo 37 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +6.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:50: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 41 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK) — MSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:50: Timeout Michigan State, clock 12:50 — BC win probability +5.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:38BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16MSU 4th & 1 at BC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:16MSU 4th & 1 at BC 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:29BC 4th & 2 at BC 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:53MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:53MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:00BC 4th & 9 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−10.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:00BC 4th & 5 at BC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:34BC 4th & 10 at BC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17MSU 4th & 20 at BC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−4.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:17MSU 4th & 20 at BC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−4.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:24MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−5.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:23MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:50BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:45BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2243% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Dylan Lonergan run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.4%
Shamus Florio punt for 44 yds , Omari Kelly returns for 8 yds to the MSU 39 Omari Kelly fumbled, recovered by BC Owen McGowanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 2:2243% → 43%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
57.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 13 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
57.0%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
57.0%
Turbo Richard run for 6 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
56.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 11:1657% → 61%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
56.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Turbo Richard for 15 yds, to Armorion SmithSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+16
57.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jayden Savoury for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
57.6%
Boston College Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (KP Price) to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
57.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 14 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
57.9%
Omari Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 22 Omari Kelly fumbled, recovered by MSUSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+10
57.9%
Brandon Tullis run for 10 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
57.7%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the BC 12Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
57.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
57.9%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 11Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
57.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
61.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
59.6%
to Turbo Richard for 14 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
60.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jaedn Skeete for 13 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
19 plays · 23 yds · 8:4759% → 61%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+16
58.9%
Aidan Chiles pass to Jayden Savoury for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
59.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line, Boston College Penalty, facemask (Sedarius McConnell)Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
59.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 14 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
59.4%
Omari Kelly run for a loss of 1 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+10
59.3%
Brandon Tullis run for 10 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
59.2%
Makhi Frazier runSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
59.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
59.4%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 1 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
59.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
62.3%
to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the BC 0, for a TD for a 1ST down, Aidan Chiles pass (Blake Sislo PAT MISSED) (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.0%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
61.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 13 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
60.4%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
60.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
60.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
61.1%
Shamus Florio punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 7:3339% → 46%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
61.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jeremiah Franklin for 13 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
60.4%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
60.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
60.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
61.1%
Shamus Florio punt for 33 yds to the BC , punt out-of-bounds at the BC Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+56
62.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to VJ Wilkins for 56 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
60.2%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
60.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 19 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
60.0%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the MSU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
60.0%
Lewis Bond run for 2 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
54.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 8 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3654% → 53%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
54.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
54.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
53.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 6 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
53.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 9 yds · 6:3254% → 59%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
54.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
54.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
53.7%
Aidan Chiles pass to Nick Marsh for 6 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
53.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 60 yds to the MSU Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
56.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
56.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
55.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 6 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
58.5%
Brandon Tullis run for no gain to the MSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
20 plays · 49 yds · 8:0847% → 53%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+56
52.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass to VJ Wilkins for 56 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
50.7%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
49.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Lewis Bond for 19 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
49.9%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the MSU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
49.9%
Lewis Bond run for 2 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
49.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Turbo Richard for 8 yds to the MSU 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
51.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
52.0%
PENALTY BC False Start (Allick,Dwayne) 5 yards from MSU49 to BC 46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+2
53.2%
Dylan Lonergan run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-10
53.7%
Shotgun Lonergan,Dylan pass incomplete deep left to Harris,Reed thrown to MSU24 QB hurried by Matthews,Wayne PENALTY MSU Holding (Eaton,Joshua) 10 yards from BC 48 to MSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
51.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Ty Lockwood for 14 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
50.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 8 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
50.5%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
50.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 5 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
50.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Jordan McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
46.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 12 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 15:4544% → 55%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.0%
Makhi Frazier runSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+25
55.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 16 yds to the BC 17, Boston College Penalty, personalfoul (Chuck Nnaeto)Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
55.5%
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.7%
to Michael Masunas for 3 yds to the BC 0, for a TD, Aidan Chiles pass (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
53.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 18 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
51.5%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
51.3%
Jordan McDonald run for 8 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
51.2%
Jordan McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 41Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+21
51.8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 21 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
50.0%
Reed Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+1
51.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 1 yd to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+9
53.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 4
OPP 14
-5
51.6%
PENALTY BC False Start (Daugherty,Eryx) 5 yards from MSU14 to MSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
45.0%
Luca Lombardo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
19 plays · 5 yds · 20:3547% → 45%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
52.6%
Turbo Richard run for 9 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
51.6%
Turbo Richard run for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
51.3%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
52.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+15
53.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete, Michigan State Penalty, personalfoul (Jordan Hall)Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
50.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
50.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
50.7%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
49.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jeremiah Franklin for 18 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
47.5%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
45.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Reed Harris for 14 yds to the MSU 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Bo MacCormack III run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
53.2%
Lewis Bond run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
55.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 7 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Florio,Shamus punt 27 yards to the MSU48 PENALTY MSU Holding declined MSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from BC 25 to BC 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
55.2%
Shamus Florio punt for 46 yds , Omari Kelly returns for no gain to the MSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 19:5742% → 45%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.3%
Aidan Chiles pass to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
58.8%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+18
51.6%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 18 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
50.7%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Ty LockwoodSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
51.4%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
53.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
54.8%
Shamus Florio punt for 48 yds , Omari Kelly returns for no gain to the MSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1056% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
55.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 1 yd to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+30
54.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 30 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
59.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 41 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:3856% → 53%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
55.8%
Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short left to Marsh,Nick thrown to MSU45 QB hurried by Crouch,Daveon PENALTY BC Pass Interference (Torrence,Syair) 15 yards from MSU27 to MSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
58.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
59.1%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+19
56.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 19 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
60.2%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+14
60.0%
Brandon Tullis run for 14 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
60.9%
Shotgun Chiles,Aidan rush left for 1 yard gain to the BC 21 (Hutchins,Quintavious) PENALTY MSU Holding (Ramil,Stanton) 10 yards from BC 22 to BC 32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
58.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 20
OPP 32
0
57.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+50
53.2%
Martin Connington 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
17 plays · 25 yds · 36:5556% → 41%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
55.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete, Boston College Penalty, passinterference (Syair Torrence)Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
58.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
59.1%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yards to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+19
56.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 19 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
60.2%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+14
60.0%
Brandon Tullis run for 14 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
61.1%
Aidan Chiles run, Michigan State Penalty, holding (Stanton Ramil)Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
58.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 20
OPP 32
0
57.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+50
53.2%
Martin Connington 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
41.1%
Lewis Bond run for 7 yds to the MSU 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+9
41.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 9 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
41.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Lewis Bond for 8 yds to the MSU 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
41.1%
PENALTY BC False Start (Allick,Dwayne) 5 yards from MSU01 to MSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.1%
Jeremiah Franklin 6 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:1357% → 60%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
57.1%
Bo MacCormack III runSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
57.5%
Lewis Bond run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
59.3%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Turbo Richard for 7 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.6%
Shamus Florio punt, Michigan State Penalty, illegalsubstitution (5 Yards)Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.8%
Shamus Florio punt for 46 yds to the MSU 24, Omari Kelly returnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:3656% → 52%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
56.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+23
55.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 23 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
60.6%
Frazier,Makhi rush left for 0 yards to the MSU47 (Bate,Favor) PENALTY MSU Holding (Moore,Conner) 10 yards from MSU47 to MSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-7
56.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Omar Thornton for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 30
+9
55.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+5
55.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
52.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
65.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the BC 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+10
63.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 10 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
65.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the BC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 15:0020% → 21%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
80.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 17 yds to the MSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.0%
Turbo Richard 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0087% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
86.6%
Aidan Chiles pass to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
86.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the BC 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+10
76.0%
Aidan Chiles pass to Omari Kelly for 10 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
82.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the BC 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.8%
Aidan Chiles pass to Jay Coyne for 5 yds to the BC 0, for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
80.1%
Lewis Bond run for 7 yds to the MSU 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+9
79.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Turbo Richard for 9 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
80.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Lewis Bond for 8 yds to the MSU 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
79.0%
Boston College Penalty, falsestart (Dwayne Allick)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.1%
Dylan Lonergan pass to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the MSU 0, for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+57.9
TD · Q2 7:45
Timeout Michigan State, clock 07:45
+9.1
FG · Q3 7:00
Luca Lombardo 37 yd FG GOOD
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com