2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNWST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:08 · Zack Stone punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:33: A.J. Turner run for 1 yd for a TD Northwestern State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clinton Anokwuru) declined (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:32: Le'Meke Brockington run for 7 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:20: Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 45 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:20: Timeout Minnesota, clock 12:20 — MINN win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:43: Timeout Minnesota, clock 10:43 — MINN win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NWST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:13NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 13:13NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 8:32NWST 4th & 22 at NWST 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 6:36MINN 4th & 1 at NWST 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%71% to convertField goal98.6%−0.177% to makePunt98.2%−0.6average punt
- Q1 3:12NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 14:05NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 8:28NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 29, down 49Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:38MINN 4th & 9 at NWST 9, up 56Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%89% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:08NWST 4th & 4 at NWST 41, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:53NWST 4th & 10 at NWST 33, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:15MINN 4th & 9 at NWST 40, up 66Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%32% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:19NWST 4th & 5 at NWST 25, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 6:15MINN 4th & 1 at NWST 2, up 66Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%60% to convertField goal99.8%−0.294% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 14:54MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:33MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:32MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:07MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:20MINN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:43MINN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:40MINN Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47MINN Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNWSTDrive 1INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-29
99.4%
Abram Johnston pass intercepted John Nestor return for 29 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q1 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.4%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Myion Hicks for 1 yd to the NWST 27Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Cooper Evans punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 45Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Cooper Evans punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3499% → 99%
Q1 11:51
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+9
99.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 9 yds to the NWST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 9 yds to the NWST 29Similar
Q1 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd for a TD Northwestern State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clinton Anokwuru) declined (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:541% → 1%
MINNDrive 5TD8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 16 yds to the NWST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
99.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 10 yds to the NWST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Le'Meke Brockington run for 7 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Ben Buisson for no gain to the NWST 25Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.3%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Luke Carter for 2 yds to the NWST 26Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.3%
Cooper Evans punt for 27 yds , Koi Perich returns for 12 yds to the NWST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
99.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Koi Perich for 24 yds to the NWST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 8FUMBLE TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:341% → 0%
NWSTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q2 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Zack Stone punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 33 , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 21 yds to the NWST 35 for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NWST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 45 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD5 plays · 31 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q2 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+21
99.8%
Zack Stone punt for 40 yds , Koi Perich returns for 21 yds to the NWST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD6 plays · 48 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · 4 yds · 0:410% → 0%
MINNDrive 16FG4 plays · -3 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q2 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Max Shikenjanski pass complete to Fame Ijeboi for no gain to the NWST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17END OF HALF6 plays · 15 yds · 2:250% → 0%
MINNDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:300% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20INT15 plays · 42 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Dylan Wittke pass complete to Kenric Lanier II for 7 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-15
99.9%
(03:51) Wittke,Dylan pass complete short left to Lanier II,Kenric caught at NSU16, for 14 yards to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:43 PENALTY MINN Personal Foul (Tafai,Kahlee) 15 yards from NSU14 to NSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Eli Anderson pass complete to Tyler Siddons for 4 yds to the NWST 24Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
100.0%
Eli Anderson pass complete to Myion Hicks for 9 yds to the NWST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Eli Anderson pass complete to Kolbe Burrell for no gain to the NWST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
99.9%
Max Shikenjanski sacked by Braden Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the NWST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Zack Stone punt for 30 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 2 yds to the MINN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 51 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:20
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 45 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 12:20
Timeout Minnesota, clock 12:20
+0.2
TD · Q2 10:43
Timeout Minnesota, clock 10:43
+0.2