2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:50 · Ryan Barker 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:50: Ryan Barker 41 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Noah Grant kickoff for 59 yds , King Mack return for 18 yds to the PSU 24 — FIU win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:56: Ryan Barker 34 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:45: Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 14 — PSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:44: Devonte Ross 42 Yd pass from Drew Allar, Two Point Conversion Failed. Penalty PSU Holding. (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 14:07FIU 4th & 13 at FIU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 11:31PSU 4th & 4 at FIU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:48FIU 4th & 2 at PSU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%56% to convertField goal1.7%−0.185% to makePunt1.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:02PSU 4th & 1 at FIU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:23FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:36PSU 4th & 2 at FIU 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%57% to convertField goal96.7%−0.172% to makePunt96.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 6:29FIU 4th & 13 at PSU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.121% to convertField goal3.4%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 5:32PSU 4th & 7 at FIU 42, up 7Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.3%37% to convertField goal96.1%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call96.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:56FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 1:53PSU 4th & 3 at FIU 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.5%52% to convertField goal95.3%−0.256% to makePunt95.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:50PSU 4th & 13 at FIU 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.420% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%68% to makePunt93.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:26FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q3 9:56PSU 4th & 4 at FIU 16, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%−<0.181% to makePunt93.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 6:53FIU 4th & 7 at PSU 47, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 2:33FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 41, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%average punt
- Q3 0:28FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 40, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 13:34PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 16, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q4 11:04FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 16, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 10:33PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 40, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 8:55FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 26, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:40FIU 4th & 4 at PSU 33, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.348% to convertField goal0.9%49% to makePunt0.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 3:54PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:29PSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:19PSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:531% → 1%
PSUDrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the FIU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 3:321% → 1%
PSUDrive 4TD11 plays · 87 yds · 3:4899% → 99%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
98.7%
Florida International Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
98.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 11 yds to the FIU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5INT13 plays · 53 yds · 5:122% → 2%
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
98.4%
Owens, Kejon rush for 1 yard to the FIU31, PENALTY FIU holding 10 yards to the FIU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
98.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Justin Cayenne for 12 yds to the FIU 34Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 3 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
98.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 13 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+22
97.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 22 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
97.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass intercepted Alonzo Ford Jr. return for 5 yds to the PSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4698% → 98%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
97.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 3 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
97.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+12
97.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 12 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 1:533% → 3%
Q2 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+27
97.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 27 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
97.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Dominic DeLuca blocked by Dominic DeLuca TEAM punt 0 yards to the PSU46, recovered by FIU Payne, Dallas at FIU45 (blocked by DeLuca, Dominic).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:233% → 3%
PSUDrive 10FG9 plays · 13 yds · 2:5397% → 97%
FIUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:173% → 3%
PSUDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 29 yds · 0:1797% → 97%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 7 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
97.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
50
+14
97.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 14 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG13 plays · 60 yds · 4:4996% → 97%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
96.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 6 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
96.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 6 yds to the FIU 41Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
96.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 7 yds to the FIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
96.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 8 yds to the FIU 26Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
96.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 4 yds to the FIU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 1:523% → 4%
Q3 6:53
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
96.2%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD5 plays · 88 yds · 2:0197% → 99%
FIUDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 5 yds · 3:581% → 1%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Justin Cayenne for 2 yds to the FIU 37Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+5
99.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 5 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
99.1%
Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FIU 37Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+3
99.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 3 yds to the FIU 40Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q4 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-6
99.4%
Drew Allar sacked by Johnny Chaney Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-9
99.4%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Enai White for a loss of 9 yards to the FIU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:23100% → 99%
Q4 10:33
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.4%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 53 yds , C'Quan Jnopierre returns for 10 yds to the FIU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20DOWNS14 plays · 50 yds · 6:301% → 0%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Nelson for 9 yds to the PSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD1 play · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22FUMBLE6 plays · 9 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 2:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Ross Fournet for 6 yds to the FIU 40Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Ross Fournet for 7 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+39
100.0%
Joe Pesansky sacked by Chaz Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 5 Joe Pesansky fumbled, recovered by PSU Chaz Coleman , return for 0 yards , return for 39 yds to the FIU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24END OF GAME7 plays · 38 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Ross Fournet for 9 yds to the FIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:44
Devonte Ross 42 Yd pass from Drew Allar, Two Point Conversion Failed. Penalty PSU Holding. (Ryan Barker Kick)
+2
FG · Q3 9:56
Ryan Barker 34 yd FG GOOD
+1.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Noah Grant kickoff for 59 yds , King Mack return for 18 yds to the PSU 24
-0.9