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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:58 · Brayden Johnson punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:17: Emmett Johnson run for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — AKR win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 13:56: Kyle Cunanan 35 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:17: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:08: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Quinn Clark for 37 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 8:46AKR 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:49NEB 4th & 1 at AKR 1, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%59% to convertField goal95.3%−0.394% to makePunt94.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 14:46AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 3, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 13:56NEB 4th & 6 at AKR 17, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%80% to makePunt94.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 12:01AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 5:46AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 47, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 1:41AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 20, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 12:14AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 43, down 33Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:28AKR 4th & 8 at NEB 16, down 40Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%81% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:58AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 29, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:56AKR 4th & 2 at midfield, down 54Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:27AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 32, down 68Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:35AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 38, down 68Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 12:17NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:17NEB Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:08NEB Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46NEB Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:49NEB Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58NEB Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:37NEB Touchdown, up 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:01NEB Touchdown, up 60 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:31NEB Touchdown, up 67 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3998% → 98%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 7 yds to the NEB 30Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+22
98.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 22 yds to the NEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:262% → 2%
NEBDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3798% → 98%
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+36
97.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 36 yds to the AKR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
98.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 12 yds to the AKR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
98.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 7 yds to the AKR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.8%
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the AKR 2 Emmett Johnson fumbled, recovered by AKR Cyrus DurhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4SF4 plays · -2 yds · 1:252% → 3%
NEBDrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5298% → 97%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
97.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 26 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+18
97.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 18 yds to the AKR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+7
97.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Kwinten Ives for 7 yds to the AKR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:033% → 3%
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+19
97.3%
Joseph Castle punt for 37 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 19 yds to the AKR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7FG4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5097% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:553% → 3%
NEBDrive 9TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4498% → 98%
AKRDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 2:312% → 2%
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
97.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben pass incomplete short right to Walker,Myles thrown to NEB49 PENALTY NEB Holding (Wright,Ceyair) 10 yards from AKR40 to AKR50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD7 plays · 89 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
98.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 13 yds to the NEB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+9
98.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 3 yds to the AKR 46Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
98.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 9 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Quinn Clark for 37 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q2 2:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
PENALTY AKR False Start (Jarmon,Iesa) 5 yards from AKR25 to AKR20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5599% → 100%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
99.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 19 yds to the AKR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 2 yds to the AKR 10Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 46 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben pass incomplete deep right to Grear Jr.,Tim thrown to NEB38 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Marshall,Andrew) 15 yards from AKR41 to NEB44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben sacked for loss of 27 yards to the AKR29 (McCullough,Dasan) PENALTY NEB Face Mask (McCullough,Dasan) 15 yards from NEB44 to NEB29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q3 12:14
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+39
99.7%
Brayden Johnson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 48 , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 39 yds to the NEB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD6 plays · 52 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+38
99.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 38 yds to the AKR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 49 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cameron Monteiro for 16 yds to the NEB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
99.8%
Owen Wiley 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Riley Van Poppel Wiley,Owen field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by Van Poppel,Riley (H: Castle,Joseph, LS: Miner,Frank), clock 07:28 recovered by NEB Jeudy,Elijah at NEB22, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 18 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 39 yds to the AKR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Mekhi Nelson for 9 yds to the AKR 12Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:560% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD5 plays · 74 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
AKRDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 32 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben pass incomplete short middle to Walker,Myles thrown to AKR31, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Conn,Jamir) 11 yard from AKR19 to AKR30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23TD5 plays · 51 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
TJ Lateef pass complete to Isaiah Mozee for 10 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Block (Keelan Smith) to the NEB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+41
99.9%
TJ Lateef pass complete to Mekhi Nelson for 41 yds to the AKR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24FUMBLE7 plays · 9 yds · 3:250% → 0%
NEBDrive 25TD4 plays · 43 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
AKRDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 4:520% → 0%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 9 yds to the AKR 32Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-1
100.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. pass complete to Conner Cravaack for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 31Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-11
100.0%
Michael Johnson Jr. sacked by Ashton Murphy for a loss of 11 yards to the AKR 24Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Brayden Johnson punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Mozee returns for 5 yds to the NEB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:17
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 2:08
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Quinn Clark for 37 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+0.6
FG · Q2 13:56
Kyle Cunanan 35 yd FG GOOD
+0.5