Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 17 at Michigan 34

MICH
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:33 · Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 6 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense+27.1Score differential+12.0Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:23: D.J. McKinney pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +1.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:19: Dominic Zvada 39 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:40: Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:14: Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:12UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:42UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:19MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:27UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:22MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21MICH 4th & 3 at UNM 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:23UNM 4th & 1 at MICH 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56UNM 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:06UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:19MICH 4th & 7 at UNM 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:10MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:30UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 42, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:53MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 12, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:46UNM 4th & 4 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:09MICH 4th & 2 at UNM 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:33UNM 4th & 2 at MICH 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:57MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:26MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:23UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:40UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:14MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.0%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.9%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
98.9%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the MICH 37Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
98.9%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.8%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing GoodwinSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
98.9%
Justice Haynes run for 56 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.8%
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the UNM 19Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Scottre HumphreySimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+2
98.8%
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the UNM 21Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
98.7%
Daniel Hughes punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 6:3999% → 99%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
98.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 8 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
98.7%
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
98.7%
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
98.6%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 25 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
98.6%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
98.6%
Jordan Marshall run for 5 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
98.5%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the UNM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.5%
Micah Ka'apana run for 4 yds to the UNM 20Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
98.5%
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds to the UNM 16Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
98.4%
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds to the UNM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
98.4%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the UNM 9Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
98.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Max Bredeson for 4 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
98.6%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
98.4%
Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the UNM 17Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+4
98.4%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 4 yds to the UNM 21Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+1
98.4%
Daniel Hughes punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 23 , Semaj Morgan returns for 1 yd to the MICH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.4%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+14
98.4%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 14 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Fredrick MooreSimilar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.4%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
98.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:332% → 2%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.1%
Keagan Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNM 24Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
98.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 9 yds to the UNM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
98.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 9 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
98.0%
Jack Layne run for 3 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.9%
Damon Bankston run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 44Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
97.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 1 yd to the UNM 45Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Zhaiel SmithSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Daniel Hughes punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.0%
Semaj Morgan run for 3 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin KleinSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 39 yds , Austin Brawley returns for no gain to the UNM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Jack Layne pass intercepted TJ Guy return for no gain to the UNM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4798% → 98%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
98.1%
Semaj Morgan run for 11 yds to the UNM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.0%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the UNM 3Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
Jordan Marshall run for no gain to the UNM 3Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.9%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing GoodwinSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
98.4%
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:432% → 4%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
98.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 12 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Scottre HumphreySimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
98.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 14 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
97.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Scottre Humphrey for 8 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.7%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Zhaiel SmithSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
97.8%
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 7 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
97.7%
(04:50) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete short left to Johnson,Keagan thrown to UOM25, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UOM Pass Interference (Edmond,Jo'Ziah) 9 yards from UOM38 to UOM29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
97.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 11 yds to the MICH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
97.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 5 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
97.4%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MICH 10Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
97.5%
James Laubstein run for 1 yd to the MICH 9Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
95.9%
D.J. McKinney pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:185% → 5%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.5%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Damon BankstonSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
95.8%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
95.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
95.3%
Luke Drzewiecki 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:2296% → 98%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 2 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
95.4%
Bryce Underwood sacked by Brett Karhu for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 21Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+39
95.4%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 39 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.0%
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
96.1%
(01:03) PENALTY UOM False Start (McCulley,Donaven) 5 yards from NM 34 to NM 39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+9
95.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
95.8%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds to the UNM 23Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
95.8%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the UNM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.6%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
97.1%
J. Layne takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:453% → 3%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.1%
Scottre Humphrey run for 16 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.8%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
96.7%
(13:51) PENALTY NM False Start (Aliane,Malik) 5 yards from NM 44 to NM 39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Scottre HumphreySimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Daniel Hughes punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:2897% → 98%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+27
97.1%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 27 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Michigan Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+30
97.2%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 30 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.2%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing GoodwinSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
97.2%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 10 yds to the UNM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.2%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Andrew MarshSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
97.2%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the UNM 21Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
97.0%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin KleinSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
97.9%
Dominic Zvada 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:303% → 9%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Zhaiel Smith for 9 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-15
97.2%
(09:39) Shotgun Layne,Jack sacked for loss of 12 yards to the NM 22 (Barham,Jaishawn) PENALTY UOM Targeting (Barham,Jaishawn) 15 yards from NM 34 to NM 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
97.2%
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
50
0
97.2%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael BuckleySimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 9
50
+20
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 20 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
96.9%
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
97.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for 1 yd to the MICH 26Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+10
97.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 10 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
97.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 2 yds to the MICH 18Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+5
97.1%
(05:35) PENALTY UOM Offside (Moore,Derrick) 5 yards from UOM18 to UOM13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
97.0%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MICH 10Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
97.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 5 yds to the MICH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
96.8%
James Laubstein run for 4 yds to the MICH 1Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
96.7%
James Laubstein run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 3Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.0%
(02:37) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to UOM00 PENALTY UOM Pass Interference (Hill,Jyaire) 1 yard from UOM03 to UOM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.7%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
96.7%
James Laubstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 3Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
93.3%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Marshall,Jordan rush right for 12 yards gain to the UOM34 (Williams,Abraham) PENALTY UOM Holding (Sprague,Andrew) 10 yards from UOM22 to UOM12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
93.2%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing GoodwinSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+7
93.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 7 yds to the MICH 19Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+5
92.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Jordan Marshall for 5 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Austin Brawley at the UNM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:308% → 6%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
92.5%
Scottre Humphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 38Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+2
93.4%
Jack Layne pass complete to Jack Layne for 2 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+2
93.4%
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Jack Layne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:0893% → 98%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
92.9%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
92.9%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.0%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
92.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+59
93.2%
Justice Haynes run for 59 yds to the UNM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20INT
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:132% → 3%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Damon Bankston run for 3 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael BuckleySimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
97.8%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 9 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 6 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+10
97.5%
Jack Layne run for 10 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
97.4%
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+25
97.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 25 yds to the MICH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.9%
Jack Layne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
98.1%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the MICH 6Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
98.3%
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 7Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+5
98.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
98.2%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Michael Buckley at the UNM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
98.0%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+1
98.0%
Deshaun Buchanan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 4
50
-7
98.0%
Jack Layne sacked by Cole Sullivan for a loss of 7 yards to the UNM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the UNM 43Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin KleinSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
98.6%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 8 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-3
99.4%
Bryce Underwood sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 46 yds · 1:592% → 3%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
98.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 37Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-15
98.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to UOM39 PENALTY UOM Pass Interference (Dotson,Elijah) 15 yards from NM 37 to UOM48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
97.9%
Jack Layne sacked by Dominic Nichols for a loss of 7 yards to the UNM 45Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+11
98.2%
Damon Bankston run for 11 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
97.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 4 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
97.7%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 6 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.5%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep left to Smith,Zhaiel thrown to UOM10 PENALTY UOM Offside (Edokpayi,Lugard) 5 yards from UOM34 to UOM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+1
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 1 yd to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 6 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the MICH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
97.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 7 yds to the MICH 5Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-11
97.5%
Jack Layne sacked by Troy Bowles for a loss of 11 yards to the MICH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:40
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q4 10:14
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+5.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com