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WMU

Western Michigan 6 at Michigan State 23

MSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Brady Jones pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault, broken up by Chance Rucker
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+34.6Offense timeouts−18.7Score differential+17.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.7Defense timeouts−16.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 1:42: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down — WMU win probability +12.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 10:43: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK) — MSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q1 5:30: Brandon Tullis run for 12 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK) — WMU win probability +1.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q2 1:58: Makhi Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK) — MSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — MSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:12WMU 4th & 4 at MSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 4 at WMU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:42WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:05WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:46MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:15WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 11, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:14MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:34WMU 4th & 12 at MSU 31, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:06MSU 4th & 6 at WMU 42, up 25
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:19MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 44, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:36WMU 4th & 17 at MSU 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:34WMU 4th & 24 at WMU 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:14WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 42, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:43MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:58MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:488% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
92.4%
Brady Jones pass complete to Talique Williams for 35 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
92.4%
Brady Jones run for 4 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+12
92.4%
Brady Jones pass complete to Talique Williams for 12 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
92.4%
Brady Jones run for 6 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-1
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
92.4%
Brady Jones run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
89.7%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Talique Williams, broken up by Ade WillieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 19:1792% → 86%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
92.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, off-side (Nadame Tucker) to the WMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
80.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 7 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
80.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
78.4%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+10
77.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 10 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+1
78.0%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the WMU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+10
77.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 10 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
78.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Aaron Wofford) to the WMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
79.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
78.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 8 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:4291% → 90%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
91.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
91.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 6 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 8 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
91.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Brandon TullisSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
91.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+28
91.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 28 yds to the WMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
91.2%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
90.2%
Brandon Tullis run for 12 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:4311% → 13%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
88.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 23Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
88.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
88.7%
Brady Jones pass complete to Talique Williams for 5 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
88.7%
Devin Miles run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
88.8%
Brady Jones pass complete to Talique Williams for 5 yds to the WMU 36Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-4
87.0%
Brady Jones sacked by Anelu Lafaele for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 32 Brady Jones fumbled, recovered by WMU Brady Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
86.7%
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3816% → 16%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Blake Bosma, broken up by Brady PretzlaffSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 25Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.0%
Western Michigan Penalty, delay of game (Talique Williams) to the WMU 20Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+61
83.6%
Ryan Millmore punt for 51 yds Michigan State Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Pinnace III) to the MSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 4:1985% → 81%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
85.1%
Brandon Tullis run for 8 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+7
85.1%
Brandon Tullis run for 7 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
85.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
85.8%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 43Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-7
85.5%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 22
OWN 36
+11
84.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 11 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
81.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3118% → 19%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
82.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 3Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
82.5%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+8
82.2%
Brady Jones pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 8 yds to the WMU 11Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
81.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1781% → 88%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
80.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
80.6%
Omari Kelly run for 8 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
80.8%
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+26
80.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 26 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:009% → 10%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Devin MilesSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.8%
Brady Jones pass complete to Talique Williams for 6 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.8%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Devin Miles, broken up by Grady KellySimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+20
90.3%
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 yds , Omari Kelly returns for 20 yds to the MSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:3089% → 86%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-17
88.7%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Nadame Tucker for a loss of 17 yards to the MSU 25 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MSU Conner Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 27
OWN 25
-5
87.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 20Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 32
OWN 20
+12
86.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 12 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
86.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Talique Williams returns for no gain to the WMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:109% → 10%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
91.1%
Brady Jones pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 7 yds to the WMU 19Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
89.9%
Brady Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12MISSED FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0789% → 89%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for no gain to the WMU 28Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+46
88.7%
Ryan Eckley 46 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5593% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.3%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
93.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
92.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 15:4694% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-2
93.9%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 43Similar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 6 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 6 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-2
99.7%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Sefa Saipaia Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 41Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:312% → 2%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+42
97.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 42 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
97.5%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
97.6%
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+11
98.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 11 yds to the MSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:3699% → 99%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
98.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 16 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
98.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 18 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.6%
Brandon Tullis run for 3 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
98.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 5 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-5
98.5%
Michigan State Penalty, false start (Jack Velling) to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+1
98.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the WMU 42Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
98.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
98.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
99.0%
Rodney Bullard Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
99.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Evan BoydSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+56
99.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMU 12 , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for no gain to the WMU 12 , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 12 yds to the WMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:431% → 1%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
98.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 12 yds to the WMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.7%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-1
98.6%
Christian Leary run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+23
98.7%
Broc Lowry run for 23 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
98.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 30 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.5%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-7
98.5%
Broc Lowry sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 28Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
98.5%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Devin MilesSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
99.1%
Hunter Smith 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20Uncategorized
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:401% → 1%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Brady Jones run for 3 yds to the WMU 23Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
99.4%
Brady Jones pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 13 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Aveion ChenaultSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.4%
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
99.4%
Brady Jones pass complete to Cade Conley for 5 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Talique WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Terence MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 24
OWN 33
+57
99.3%
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 yds Michigan State Penalty, Offensive holding (Aveon Grose) to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-14
99.5%
Brady Jones sacked by Malik Spencer for a loss of 14 yards to the WMU 33 Western Michigan Penalty, intentional grounding (Brady Jones) to the WMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21Uncategorized
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:54100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.8%
Michigan State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 5Similar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
99.8%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
99.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+21
99.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 21 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.8%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
99.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 28 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive holding (Jarvarius Sims) to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.8%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+14
99.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 14 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-5
99.8%
Michigan State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WMU 17Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-10
99.9%
Aidan Chiles sacked by James Camden for a loss of 10 yards to the WMU 27 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by WMU Rodney McGraw , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 9 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Jalen Buckley for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 39Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-1
99.8%
Brady Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 38Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-32
99.9%
Tate Hallock 32 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
99.8%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:530% → 1%
Q4 2:48
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Brady Jones pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 3 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-2
99.8%
Brady Jones pass complete to Jalen Buckley for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 42Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
99.6%
Brady Jones sacked by Jalen Thompson for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 41 Western Michigan Penalty, intentional grounding (Brady Jones) to the WMU 41Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Brady Jones pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault, broken up by Chance RuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25Uncategorized
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
99.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-2
99.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 1:42
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down
-12.4
TD · Q2 1:58
Makhi Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 10:43
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com