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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:06 · Will Karoll punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:49: Wayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed) — UTAH win probability +1.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q1 1:27: Smith Snowden 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:44: Lander Barton 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick) — UTAH win probability +4.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:46: Anthony Woods 19 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick) — UCLA win probability +4.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q2 0:12: Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for no gain to the UCLA 36 Utah Penalty, illegal touching (Larry Simmons) to the UCLA 36 — UTAH win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:36UCLA 4th & 1 at midfield, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:40UCLA 4th & 2 at UTAH 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.8%57% to convertField goal36.4%−0.534% to makePunt36.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 24 at UCLA 11, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snapGo for it29.9%−1.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q2 7:29UCLA 4th & 1 at UTAH 21, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%71% to convertField goal21.3%−1.174% to makePunt18.2%−4.2average punt
- Q2 3:15UTAH 4th & 5 at UCLA 48, up 13Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it73.6%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:06UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q3 12:38UCLA 4th & 4 at UTAH 28, down 19Close callKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call16.3%−0.360% to makePunt13.0%−3.6average punt
- Q3 2:50UTAH 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%48% to convertField goal93.5%−1.494% to makePunt87.3%−7.7average punt
- Q3 1:23UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.2%−1.0average punt
- Q4 15:00UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 35, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.9%−1.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q4 4:38UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 25, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:49UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call64.5%97% to makeGo for two64.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:27UTAH Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:44UTAH Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:46UCLA Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.4%97% to makeGo for two26.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:29UTAH Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1167% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 11 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+8
32.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 8 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
32.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 11 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2DOWNS11 plays · 37 yds · 4:0030% → 26%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala, broken up by Logan FanoSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
30.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 18 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
29.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
26.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD10 plays · 60 yds · 5:1074% → 78%
UCLADrive 4PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 1:2418% → 16%
Q1 0:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-13
16.3%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Logan Fano for a loss of 13 yards to the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0279% → 84%
UCLADrive 6TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5721% → 14%
UTAHDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 48 yds · 3:2485% → 89%
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
14.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for 6 yds to the UTAH 13Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
14.0%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Andre Jordan Jr.) to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.5%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Jackson Bennee, broken up by Rodrick PleasantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0310% → 6%
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+16
10.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 16 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
10.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Courtland Ford) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-2
6.5%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9FG7 plays · 34 yds · 0:4893% → 95%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 6 yds to the UTAH 36Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
6.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 8 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
6.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 7 yds to the UCLA 36 UCLA Penalty, substitution infraction (Yards) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
4.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for no gain to the UCLA 36 Utah Penalty, illegal touching (Larry Simmons) to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2110% → 6%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
10.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
10.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 11 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
7.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 6 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD22 plays · 80 yds · 9:4094% → 96%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
5.8%
Wayshawn Parker run for no gain to the UTAH 20 Utah Penalty, Offensive holding (Caleb Lomu) to the UTAH 10Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+11
5.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 11 yds to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
5.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 8 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
4.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
4.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
5.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 3 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
3.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 6 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+8
3.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 8 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:451% → 1%
Q3 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-6
1.0%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Karson Kaufusi and Kash Dillon for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13TD10 plays · 81 yds · 4:4897% → 99%
Q4 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+10
4.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the UTAH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
5.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 18 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+36
5.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 36 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.9%
Dallen Bentley 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
0.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 13 yds to the UTAH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
0.2%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD4 plays · 29 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:510% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17Uncategorized7 plays · 37 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:44
Lander Barton 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
-4.4
TD · Q2 6:46
Anthony Woods 19 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q1 10:49
Wayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)
-1.3