View as
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreUALB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:55 · Owen Lawson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWA 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:33: Jack Shields pass complete to Lasalle Rose Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (James Bozek KICK) — UALB win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:28: Xavier Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:27: Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:18: Drew Stevens 55 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UALB made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 8:51IOWA 4th & 7 at UALB 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%88% to makePunt97.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:42UALB 4th & 2 at UALB 33, down 3Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:37IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q1 3:10UALB 4th & 1 at UALB 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:19UALB 4th & 10 at midfield, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 1:24IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 15, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q2 4:40UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 38, down 3Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:51IOWA 4th & 2 at UALB 2, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.0%48% to convertField goal92.6%−0.494% to makePunt91.1%−1.9average punt
- Q2 0:08UALB 4th & 8 at IOWA 48, down 10Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:55UALB 4th & 1 at UALB 24, down 10Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:15IOWA 4th & 1 at UALB 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%71% to convertField goal94.0%−0.858% to makePunt92.4%−2.4average punt
- Q3 4:16UALB 4th & 9 at UALB 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 14:18IOWA 4th & 4 at UALB 37, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call97.6%−0.340% to makePunt97.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:36UALB 4th & 21 at UALB 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 1:50UALB 4th & 17 at UALB 18, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UALB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 11:33UALB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:28IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:27IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:42IOWA Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1FG14 plays · 55 yds · 6:0199% → 98%
UALBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q1 7:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
97.9%
Jack Shields pass complete to Tavahri Groves for 5 yds to the UALB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5898% → 97%
UALBDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:123% → 3%
Q1 2:19
4TH & 10
50
0
97.1%
Owen Lawson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
Q1 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
96.7%
Rhys Dakin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Lasalle Rose Jr. at the UALB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:433% → 6%
Q1 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
96.7%
Jack Shields pass complete to Jasiah Barron for 7 yds to the UALB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+19
96.4%
Jack Shields pass complete to Jasiah Barron for 19 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
96.3%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Woodell,Griffin rush right for 2 yards gain to the Iowa34 (Hurkett,Ethan; Llewellyn,Max) PENALTY UA Illegal Formation 5 yards from Iowa36 to Iowa41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+2
96.2%
Jack Shields pass complete to Griffin Woodell for 2 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+27
96.1%
Jack Shields pass complete to Caden Burti for 27 yds to the IOWA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
95.6%
Jack Shields pass complete to Alex Jreige for 6 yds to the IOWA 4Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
95.6%
PENALTY UA False Start (Burti,Caden) 5 yards from Iowa04 to Iowa09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
94.4%
Jack Shields pass complete to Lasalle Rose Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (James Bozek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:5895% → 95%
UALBDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:325% → 6%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
94.8%
Jack Shields pass complete to Griffin Woodell for 6 yds to the UALB 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
94.0%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Shields,Jack pass incomplete deep middle to Barron,Jasiah thrown to Iowa20 PENALTY UA Illegal Formation 5 yards from UA 36 to UA 31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+17
94.1%
Owen Lawson punt for 40 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 17 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD9 plays · 61 yds · 2:4394% → 96%
Q2 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.5%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:384% → 5%
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:565% → 5%
Q3 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+9
95.3%
Jack Shields pass complete to Carter Moses for 9 yds to the UALB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD15 plays · 60 yds · 8:2295% → 98%
Q3 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
95.0%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 3 yds to the UALB 29Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
95.0%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the UALB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
94.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 2 yds to the UALB 14Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
94.8%
(07:36) Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass complete short left to Parker,KJ caught at UA 10, for 4 yards to the UA 10 (Harris,Khian'Dre) PENALTY Iowa Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Dunker,Gennings) 5 yards from UA 14 to UA 19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+13
94.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 13 yds to the UALB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:023% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FG10 plays · 49 yds · 4:5198% → 99%
UALBDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:271% → 1%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Jack Shields pass complete to Tavahri Groves for 3 yds to the UALB 23Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-15
99.3%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Shields,Jack pass incomplete deep left to Jreige,Alex thrown to UA 49 PENALTY Iowa Pass Interference (Harrell,Jaden) 15 yards from UA 26 to UA 41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+4
99.3%
Jack Shields pass complete to Caden Burti for 4 yds to the UALB 41Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-11
99.3%
Jack Shields sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 11 yards to the UALB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD12 plays · 66 yds · 6:4899% → 100%
UALBDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 1:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+46
100.0%
Owen Lawson punt for 75 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UALB 47 , Sam Phillips returns for 46 yds to the UALB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
100.0%
Hank Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Hank Brown fumbled, recovered by UALB Abdul Osholake , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 20 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+12
100.0%
Jack Shields pass complete to Carter Moses for 12 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 1:51
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 11:33
Jack Shields pass complete to Lasalle Rose Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (James Bozek KICK)
-1.2