2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:43 · Luke Droegemueller punt for 36 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 11 yds to the ILL 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:43: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:48: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:20: Aidan Laughery run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:09: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 13 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 2:03WIU 4th & 17 at WIU 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 14:47ILL 4th & 3 at WIU 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%53% to convertField goal98.9%−0.149% to makePunt98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:19WIU 4th & 5 at ILL 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%42% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.147% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:54ILL 4th & 9 at WIU 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%80% to makePunt98.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:43WIU 4th & 16 at WIU 37, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 1:32WIU 4th & 14 at WIU 21, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:44ILL 4th & 22 at ILL 31, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 10:13ILL 4th & 5 at WIU 10, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%88% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:00WIU 4th & 9 at WIU 19, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:57WIU 4th & 2 at ILL 2, down 38Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%−0.194% to makePunt-0.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 6:22WIU 4th & 16 at WIU 34, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:58WIU 4th & 1 at WIU 34, down 49Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:06ILL 4th & 10 at WIU 34, up 49Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal100.0%47% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 6:43ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:48ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:20ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:09ILL Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:27ILL Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:27ILL Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWIUDrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 34 yds · 3:530% → 1%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.6%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Aric Johnson for 10 yds to the WIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.6%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Christian Anaya for 9 yds to the WIU 49Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Demari Davis for 2 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Western Illinois Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD9 plays · 59 yds · 4:00100% → 99%
Q1 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 5 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+16
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 16 yds to the WIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the WIU 29Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+15
99.4%
(08:40) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep right to Bowick,Justin thrown to WIU00 PENALTY WIU Pass Interference (Guillory,Esteban) 15 yards from WIU29 to WIU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Chris Irvin sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 1 yard to the WIU 26 Chris Irvin fumbled, recovered by ILL Kaleb Patterson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q1 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+12
99.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Alexander Capka-Jones for 12 yds to the WIU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.4%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Hansen,Brandon) 5 yards from WIU08 to WIU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q1 2:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
99.3%
(02:16) Droegemueller,Luke punt 51 yards to the ILL26 Beatty,Hank return 10 yards to the ILL36 (Guillory,Esteban) PENALTY WIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIU23 to WIU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD7 plays · 51 yds · 3:3299% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 7DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.5%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Demari Davis for 36 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG9 plays · 49 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 17 yds to the WIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+10
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy for 10 yds to the WIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.6%
(09:31) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep right to Elzy,Malik thrown to WIU03 PENALTY WIU Personal Foul (Guillory,Esteban) 15 yards from WIU33 to WIU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.4%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Brandon Lanier for 18 yds to the WIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
99.4%
Chris Irvin sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 6 yards to the WIU 37Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+11
99.4%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 36 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 11 yds to the ILL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-10
99.5%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short right to Valentine,Ca'Lil caught at ILL50, for 8 yards to the WIU45 (Richardson,Justin) PENALTY ILL Holding (Kreutz,Josh) 10 yards from ILL47 to ILL37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+59
99.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 59 yds to the WIU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
99.5%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Bowick,Justin thrown to WIU00 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Bowick,Justin) 15 yards from WIU04 to WIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 13 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 1:230% → 0%
ILLDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the WIU 49Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-10
99.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by David Dunston for a loss of 10 yards to the ILL 41Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-10
99.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jalen Nicolas for a loss of 10 yards to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Christian Anaya at the WIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:290% → 0%
ILLDrive 14MISSED FG10 plays · 55 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q3 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy for 15 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 8 yds to the WIU 43Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+11
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 11 yds to the WIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 17 yds to the WIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the WIU 10Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
David Olano 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DJ Taylor (10:18) Olano,David field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD blocked by Taylor,DJ (H: Crimmins,Keelan, LS: Mahoney III,Patrick), clock 10:13 recovered by ILL Olano,David at WIU18, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 1 yds · 2:050% → 0%
WIUDrive 16FG18 plays · 73 yds · 8:000% → 0%
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
PENALTY WIU False Start (Arguelles,Dorian) 5 yards from WIU32 to WIU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Alex Williams for 9 yds to the WIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Malachi Hood) to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+10
99.9%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Brandon Lanier for 10 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+4
99.9%
Chris Irvin pass complete to Aric Johnson for 4 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.8%
PENALTY WIU False Start (Banks-Wall,Jeremiah) 4 yards from ILL01 to ILL05. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 7 yds to the WIU 44Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
(10:10) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short right to Rusk,Cole thrown to WIU03 broken up by Aumua-Tuisavura,Buju PENALTY WIU Offside (Kongolo,Elijah) 5 yards from WIU17 to WIU12. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
Chris Irvin pass incomplete to Aric Johnson for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Matthew Bailey) to the WIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 16
OWN 34
-5
100.0%
PENALTY WIU Delay Of Game (Irvin,Chris) 5 yards from WIU34 to WIU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD3 plays · 67 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
WIUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+43
100.0%
Luke Droegemueller punt for 43 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 43 yds to the WIU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 13 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+14
100.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Mario Sanders II for 14 yds to the WIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:20
Aidan Laughery run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 3:09
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 13 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 6:43
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+0.1