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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:22 · Cam Miller 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jai Patel Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:58: Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 4 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 13:52: Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the RUTG 14 — RUTG win probability +1.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 15:00: Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff — RUTG win probability +3.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:10: PENALTY RUT Face Mask (Elad,Jett) 15 yards from OHIO35 to OHIO50. NO PLAY. — RUTG win probability +1.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:34: Ja'shon Benjamin run for 15 yds to the OHIO 6 for a 1ST down — RUTG win probability +5.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:38RUTG 4th & 3 at OHIO 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.2%52% to convertField goal82.0%−0.228% to makePunt82.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:42RUTG 4th & 3 at OHIO 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%52% to convertField goal82.7%−0.228% to makePunt82.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:52RUTG 4th & 2 at OHIO 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%56% to convertField goal82.7%−0.184% to makePunt82.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:36RUTG 4th & 1 at OHIO 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.0%70% to convertField goal79.3%−0.736% to makePunt79.3%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:33RUTG 4th & 1 at OHIO 39, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.5%70% to convertField goal81.3%−1.236% to makePunt81.4%−1.2average punt
- Q2 13:59OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%average punt
- Q2 3:22OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.3%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 0:08OHIO 4th & 10 at RUTG 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call5.8%85% to makePunt3.8%−2.0average punt
- Q3 12:22OHIO 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%71% to convertField goal3.8%−1.647% to makePunt3.4%−2.0average punt
- Q3 4:07RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:11RUTG 4th & 7 at OHIO 8, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%90% to makePunt97.6%−1.1average punt
- Q3 7:45RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 46, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q4 6:41OHIO 4th & 10 at RUTG 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 1:54RUTG 4th & 7 at OHIO 28, up 21Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.4%60% to makePunt99.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:58OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.8%97% to makeGo for two19.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5785% → 85%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
50
-5
84.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jay Crable for a loss of 5 yards to the RUTG 45Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+12
84.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+10
84.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 10 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD23 plays · 75 yds · 9:3785% → 83%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
50
-5
85.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jay Crable for a loss of 5 yards to the RUTG 45Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+12
84.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+10
84.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 10 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
85.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
84.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 15 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
84.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 13 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
84.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD14 plays · 65 yds · 9:4916% → 18%
Q1 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
84.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 15 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
84.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 13 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
84.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 4 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG12 plays · 53 yds · 5:5583% → 83%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
83.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Kenny Fletcher Jr., broken up by Jack FriesSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
83.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
82.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 19 yds to the OHIO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5FG10 plays · 53 yds · 4:3885% → 88%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
85.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
85.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
84.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 19 yds to the OHIO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 9:3514% → 15%
OHIODrive 7TD6 plays · 54 yds · 12:5315% → 11%
OHIODrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 17:4212% → 11%
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 11 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
87.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 4 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
88.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Jake Bruno for 14 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+12
88.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 12 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
87.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 11 yds to the RUTG 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.1%
PENALTY RUT Face Mask (Elad,Jett) 15 yards from OHIO35 to OHIO50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1494% → 95%
OHIODrive 11TD7 plays · 87 yds · 1:557% → 6%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
93.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Nick Marinaro for a loss of 4 yards to the OHIO 23Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+5
93.3%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 5 yds to the OHIO 28Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Max Rodarte, broken up by Bo MascoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FG16 plays · 82 yds · 3:146% → 6%
Q2 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+11
94.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 11 yds to the OHIO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
94.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 25 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
93.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 5 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
93.5%
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Rodney Harris II, broken up by Jacobie HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:505% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
94.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 16 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+12
95.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 12 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+6
95.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 6 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
94.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 11 yds to the RUTG 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16FG16 plays · 67 yds · 18:4996% → 99%
RUTGDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1096% → 97%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
96.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 13 yds to the RUTG 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
96.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 14 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+9
96.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD7 plays · 90 yds · 3:383% → 3%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+26
96.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 26 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
96.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 24 yds to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
96.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Jake Bruno for 13 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK) (David Dellenbach KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 4:261% → 1%
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+14
98.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 14 yds to the OHIO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
98.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 6 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
98.8%
Ohio Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20Uncategorized13 plays · 55 yds · 5:2799% → 100%
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+13
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 13 yds to the RUTG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 7 yds to the RUTG 36Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+10
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete for a 1ST down Ohio Penalty, Defensive holding (Jalen Thomeson) to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+10
99.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 10 yds to the OHIO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:34
Ja'shon Benjamin run for 15 yds to the OHIO 6 for a 1ST down
+5.1
FG · Q2 15:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
+3
TD · Q1 4:58
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 4 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
-2.3