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BUF

Buffalo 10 at Minnesota 23

MINN
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:05 · Tom Weston punt for 50 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:02: Brady Denaburg 38 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +3.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:48: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +14.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 11:31: Brady Denaburg 25 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +7.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:25: Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings — BUF win probability +7.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:52: Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +14.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:57BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57MINN 4th & 7 at BUF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:49MINN 4th & 1 at BUF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:15BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:25BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:56BUF 4th & 5 at MINN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:05MINN 4th & 17 at MINN 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17BUF 4th & 3 at MINN 30, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:39MINN 4th & 7 at BUF 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:27BUF 4th & 1 at MINN 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−3.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:32MINN 4th & 5 at BUF 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:16BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:31MINN 4th & 5 at BUF 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−14.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:01BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:45BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 29, down 13
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00MINN 4th & 1 at BUF 18, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.6
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:53MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:48BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:52MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5815% → 15%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
85.1%
PENALTY MINN Offside (Eastern,Deven) 5 yards from BUFF27 to BUFF32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
85.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 30Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
84.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 23Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
84.7%
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5485% → 84%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.6%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
84.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Koi Perich for 12 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
84.4%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
84.3%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
84.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 11 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
83.7%
Tom Weston punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5816% → 16%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
83.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
83.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 7Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
83.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
83.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:5584% → 82%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
83.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 9 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
83.5%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.4%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+8
83.3%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.2%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen SmithSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.2%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+8
82.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 8 yds to the BUF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
82.3%
Jameson Geers run for no gain to the BUF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1918% → 18%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
81.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Messiah Burch for 5 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+3
81.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 12
OWN 9
-3
81.8%
Buffalo Penalty, Chop Block (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
82.0%
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 4:1582% → 84%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
50
+1
82.2%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
82.1%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
81.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 7 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
81.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 15 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
81.7%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
81.6%
Darius Taylor run for 18 yds to the BUF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
81.5%
PENALTY MINN Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUFF04 to BUFF09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1217% → 17%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 11 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
83.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 34Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+9
83.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 9 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Dylan Drennan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8INT
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3383% → 84%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Darius TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
83.3%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the MINN 19Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+15
82.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 15 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
83.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 27 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
84.2%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BUF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-54
84.3%
Drake Lindsey pass intercepted Mitchell Gonser return for 54 yds to the MINN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4419% → 21%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
80.9%
Messiah Burch run for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 28Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+9
81.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the MINN 19Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
81.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 1 yd to the MINN 18Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
79.1%
Jack Howes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4480% → 78%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.1%
Darius Taylor run for 11 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
80.5%
Drake Lindsey sacked by Red Murdock for a loss of 7 yards to the MINN 29Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon TracySimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+22
78.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 22 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
78.3%
Tom Weston punt for 50 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:4021% → 24%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
78.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
79.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 6 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
78.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 5 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
77.1%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 15 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the MINN 48Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+11
75.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 11 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
74.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+1
74.4%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 1 yd to the MINN 30Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
75.6%
Jack Howes 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 1:0479% → 84%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 8 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
80.2%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson GeersSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
79.4%
Darius Taylor run for 9 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon TracySimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
80.2%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 15 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
80.8%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Lindsey,Drake pass incomplete deep middle to Geers,Jameson thrown to BUFF16 broken up by Brown,SaVeon PENALTY BUFF Pass Interference (Brown,SaVeon) 15 yards from BUFF38 to BUFF23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.2%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke BrockingtonSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
81.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 9 yds to the BUF 14Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
80.2%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the BUF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.1%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen SmithSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
81.1%
Drake Lindsey sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the BUF 20Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
84.1%
Brady Denaburg 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:1883% → 86%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
82.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 35 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
84.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
84.4%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+12
84.2%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 12 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
84.2%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the BUF 11Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
84.6%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Frank BiermanSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
83.8%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen SmithSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
85.8%
Brady Denaburg 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3915% → 29%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
84.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
84.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 9 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
84.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
84.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
84.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Messiah Burch for 4 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
84.0%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the MINN 42Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
85.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
70.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0075% → 75%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 9 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
76.8%
Darius Taylor run for 13 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
77.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson GeersSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
77.1%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
76.9%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen SmithSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
74.7%
Tom Weston punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1026% → 23%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 13Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
74.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 13Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+6
76.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the BUF 19Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 4
OWN 19
-5
76.4%
PENALTY BUFF Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUFF19 to BUFF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
76.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:4176% → 86%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
76.4%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson GeersSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
76.0%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+16
75.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 16 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
77.4%
Drake Lindsey run for 2 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+8
77.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
80.1%
Darius Taylor run for 7 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+4
80.0%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the BUF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
79.9%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the BUF 10Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
79.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the BUF 7Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
78.5%
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen SmithSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
85.5%
Brady Denaburg 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2422% → 19%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 63 yds , Koi Perich returns for 18 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 63 yds , Koi Perich returns for 18 yds to the MINN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
95.0%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
92.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 29Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.5%
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21END OF GAME
21 plays · 58 yds · 9:3995% → 99%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
95.0%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 29Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
95.1%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
95.6%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.8%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
96.2%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
96.4%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
96.5%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
96.9%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
97.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 7 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
97.8%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
98.0%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
98.1%
Darius Taylor run for 6 yds to the BUF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.2%
Darius Taylor run for 6 yds to the BUF 21Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+1
98.8%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the BUF 20Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
98.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+3
98.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q4 10:52
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+14.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:25
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com