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LSU

LSU 13 at Oklahoma 17

OU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:28 · (00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 0 yards to the OU49 (#88 B.Gooden; #6 P.Payton), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+20.2Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:21: No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at OU06, for 1 yard to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21 #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall) — LSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:47: No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at LSU47, for 45 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson) — OU win probability +19.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:56: #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 07:56 — LSU win probability +17.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:16: Isaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick) — OU win probability +43.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18: Kneel down by Oklahoma at OU28 for loss of 1 yard — OU win probability +12.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:59LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31OU 4th & 5 at LSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:09LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:28OU 4th & 1 at OU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:35LSU 4th & 7 at OU 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:01OU 4th & 2 at OU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:56LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:55OU 4th & 13 at LSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:23LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:41OU 4th & 3 at LSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:40LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:00OU 4th & 6 at OU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:30LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:05LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:34OU 4th & 8 at OU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−4.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:56LSU 4th & 14 at OU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−6.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−18.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:36OU 4th & 4 at OU 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:04LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:16LSU 4th & 2 at OU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−4.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−14.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 4:16OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5424% → 24%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.2%
(14:57) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LSU28 (#44 T.Wein; #38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.1%
(14:19) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU28 (#56 G.Halton)Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
75.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU25, for 0 yards to the LSU28 (#44 T.Wein; #0 D.Stone)Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
75.9%
(13:08) #90 G.Chadwick punt 30 yards to the OU42 #1 J.Hardy return 0 yards to the OU42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4576% → 76%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
75.9%
(12:52) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OU41 (#88 B.Gooden; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+5
75.7%
(12:21) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at OU46, for 5 yards to the OU46 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-44
75.7%
(12:01) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #7 H.Perkins Jr. at OU48 broken up by #6 P.Payton #7 H.Perkins Jr. return 44 yards to the OU04 (#10 J.Mateer), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.2%
(11:50) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted by #22 P.Bowen at OU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5476% → 75%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.5%
(11:46) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OU27 (#33 W.Weeks; #13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-3
75.5%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 3 yards loss to the OU24 (#12 J.Butler; #16 A.Breaux)Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
75.1%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to OU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5425% → 25%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.1%
(10:32) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU34, for 5 yards to the LSU35 (#4 C.Guillory), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
74.8%
(09:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU37 (#65 J.Jackson; #34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
74.8%
(09:39) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #10 B.Sharp thrown to LSU35 broken up by #10 K.LewisSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
75.1%
(09:32) #90 G.Chadwick punt 37 yards to the OU26 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:0175% → 75%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
75.1%
(09:32) PENALTY OU False Start (#56 M.Fasusi) 5 yards from OU26 to OU21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+3
75.0%
(09:29) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU24 (#88 B.Gooden; #90 J.Guillory)Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
74.7%
(08:55) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU25 (#12 J.Butler; #90 J.Guillory)Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+27
74.3%
(08:14) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at OU45, for 27 yards to the LSU48 (#4 M.Delane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
75.1%
(07:57) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at OU49, for 3 yards to the LSU45 (#33 W.Weeks)Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
75.0%
(07:23) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LSU42 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
74.8%
(06:51) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Kanak thrown to LSU30 broken up by #13 A.Haulcy PENALTY LSU Offside (#90 J.Guillory) 5 yards from LSU42 to LSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
74.9%
PENALTY OU False Start (#12 J.Kanak) 5 yards from LSU37 to LSU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+10
74.6%
(06:46) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #12 J.Kanak caught at LSU35, for 10 yards to the LSU32 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
75.0%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #5 I.Sategna III caught at LSU27, for 6 yards to the LSU26 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
74.9%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Gibson thrown to LSU20Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
74.8%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU21 (#13 A.Haulcy; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
74.5%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #12 J.Kanak thrown to LSU04 QB hurried by #33 W.WeeksSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
74.8%
(04:31) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 04:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1825% → 25%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
(04:27) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Brown thrown to LSU20Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
(04:20) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #12 K.Parker thrown to LSU40 QB hurried by #11 K.McKinzieSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
(04:16) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 K.Parker thrown to LSU36Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
(04:09) #90 G.Chadwick punt 45 yards to the OU30 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3675% → 74%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 11
OWN 30
+5
74.5%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 5 yards to the OU35 (#4 M.Delane)Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
74.6%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 5 yards to the OU40 (#4 M.Delane; #0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-1
74.4%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 I.Sategna III rush left for 1 yard loss to the OU39 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
73.8%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 5 yards to the OU35 (#4 M.Delane)Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
74.2%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU35, for 5 yards to the OU40 (#4 M.Delane; #0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
74.3%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 I.Sategna III rush left for 1 yard loss to the OU39 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
73.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to LSU42Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+10
73.3%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 10 yards gain to the OU49 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
73.8%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 0 yards to the OU49 (#88 B.Gooden; #6 P.Payton), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:3228% → 29%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
72.1%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#10 B.Sharp) 5 yards from OU32 to OU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+17
72.9%
Shotgun #0 Z.Thomas pass complete short left to #10 B.Sharp caught at OU20, for 17 yards to the OU20 (#22 P.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
71.9%
Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 0 yards to the OU10 (#5 K.Daniels; #23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
72.5%
(00:07) Shotgun #0 Z.Thomas rush left for 2 yards gain to the OU47 (#5 K.Daniels), out of bounds PENALTY OU Face Mask (#4 C.Guillory) 15 yards from OU47 to OU32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
71.9%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Watkins thrown to OU00 PENALTY OU Roughing The Passer (#34 A.Adebawore) 10 yards from OU20 to OU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
71.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards loss to the OU13 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
72.9%
Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OU07 (#10 K.Lewis; #0 D.Stone)Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
71.0%
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 13:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
67.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LSU12 (#5 K.Daniels; #52 D.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3473% → 72%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at OU34, for 9 yards to the OU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
73.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU33, for 1 yard loss to the OU33 (#10 D.Spears)Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
73.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #18 K.Helms thrown to OU32Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
72.0%
#43 G.Miller punt 44 yards to the LSU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0529% → 29%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
71.3%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 J.Johnson caught at LSU15, for 0 yards to the LSU23 (#7 S.Omosigho; #16 D.Okoye)Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU25 (#7 S.Omosigho; #56 G.Halton)Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
71.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #6 B.Brown thrown to LSU40Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
71.4%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 35 yards to the OU40, out of bounds at OU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0173% → 71%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
73.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 21 yards gain to the LSU39 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
73.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #6 T.Blaylock thrown to LSU35 QB hurried by #33 W.Weeks PENALTY OU Holding (#66 D.Simmons) 10 yards from LSU39 to LSU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+1
73.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #12 J.Kanak caught at LSU49, for 1 yard to the LSU48 (#44 J.Pyburn; #13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 19
OPP 48
0
73.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Kanak thrown to LSU43Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+6
72.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LSU42 (#11 P.Woodland)Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
70.9%
#43 G.Miller punt 26 yards to the LSU16 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:3231% → 31%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
68.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LSU24 (#19 J.Johnson; #25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+9
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush right for 9 yards gain to the LSU33 (#25 M.Boganowski; #10 K.Lewis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 J.Johnson caught at LSU27, for 1 yard loss to the LSU32 (#5 K.Daniels) PENALTY LSU Holding (#6 B.Brown) 10 yards from LSU33 to LSU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+4
69.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU27 (#5 K.Daniels)Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+2
69.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #22 H.Berry caught at LSU22, for 2 yards to the LSU29 (#5 K.Daniels)Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+3
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LSU32 (#56 G.Halton; #38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
68.9%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 68 yards to the OU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:4271% → 69%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
70.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at OU28, for 8 yards to the OU28 (#11 P.Woodland)Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
71.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OU34 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
70.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU31, for 3 yards to the OU37 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
71.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU38 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU44, for 9 yards to the OU47 (#33 W.Weeks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep right to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to LSU26 QB hurried by #88 B.GoodenSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #12 J.Kanak caught at LSU46, for 9 yards to the LSU44 (#0 T.Cooley; #13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-2
71.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 2 yards loss to the LSU46 (#40 W.Weeks; #33 W.Weeks) PENALTY OU Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
69.4%
#43 G.Miller punt 40 yards to the LSU06 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:3668% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 13 yards gain to the OU38 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 0 yards to the OU38 (#44 J.Pyburn; #6 P.Payton)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
69.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Burks thrown to LSU45 broken up by #4 M.DelaneSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
68.1%
PENALTY OU False Start (#55 E.Pierre-Louis) 5 yards from OU38 to OU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+29
66.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete deep middle to #5 I.Sategna III caught at LSU45, for 29 yards to the LSU38 (#10 D.Spears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-42
71.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #13 A.Haulcy at LSU25 #13 A.Haulcy return 42 yards to the OU33 (#10 J.Mateer), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 2:0339% → 55%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 7 yards gain to the OU26 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings; #22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
61.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU24 (#5 K.Daniels)Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+23
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 23 yards gain to the OU01 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at OU06, for 1 yard to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21 #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:3251% → 53%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.4%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 2 yards gain to the OU27 (#12 J.Butler)Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
51.9%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #18 K.Helms caught at OU37, for 16 yards to the OU43 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
53.8%
Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 0 yards to the OU43 (#42 D.Keys; #33 W.Weeks)Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
52.9%
Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 4 yards loss to the OU39 fumbled by #6 T.Blaylock at OU39 forced by #42 D.Keys recovered by OU #10 J.Mateer at OU39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+30
50.9%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at LSU43, for 30 yards to the LSU31 (#4 M.Delane; #11 P.Woodland), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
57.4%
Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the LSU28 (#42 D.Keys; #6 P.Payton)Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
57.4%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to LSU10Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
53.0%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass intercepted by #3 D.Pickett at LSU07 #3 D.Pickett return 0 yards to the LSU07 (#11 J.Gibson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0953% → 54%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
46.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LSU05 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-1
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the LSU04 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings; #7 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+8
47.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LSU12 (#22 P.Bowen; #7 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
45.7%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 48 yards to the OU40 #5 I.Sategna III return 0 yards to the OU40, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4050% → 45%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
49.6%
Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU42 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
49.7%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete deep right to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to LSU26Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
47.4%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU49, for 7 yards to the OU49 (#11 P.Woodland), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
49.6%
PENALTY OU Delay Of Game (#10 J.Mateer) 5 yards from OU49 to OU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
45.0%
#43 G.Miller punt 56 yards to the LSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3059% → 59%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LSU22 (#23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
41.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 1 yard gain to the LSU23 (#25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
42.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #22 H.Berry thrown to LSU34Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+35
41.4%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 57 yards to the OU20 #5 I.Sategna III return 35 yards to the LSU45 (#90 G.Chadwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:4349% → 69%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.1%
No Huddle #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU45 (#40 W.Weeks)Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
69.0%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at LSU47, for 45 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4240% → 41%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.4%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU20, for 4 yards to the LSU29 (#19 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
59.6%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #12 K.Parker caught at LSU35, for 6 yards to the LSU35 (#19 J.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.5%
Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU36 (#52 D.Williams; #7 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
58.6%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
60.2%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LSU42 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
58.9%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 38 yards to the OU20, out of bounds at OU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3164% → 60%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.9%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 0 yards to the OU20 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
63.7%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #4 D.Burks thrown to OU30 broken up by #11 P.WoodlandSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.8%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OU22 (#44 J.Pyburn; #12 J.Butler)Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+45
60.4%
#43 G.Miller punt 45 yards to the LSU33 #0 Z.Thomas return for loss of 1 yard to the LSU32 (#14 E.Thomas; #25 M.Boganowski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:3842% → 67%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
57.6%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #14 T.Green caught at OU40, for 30 yards to the OU38 (#12 D.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
53.5%
Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush right for 5 yards gain to the OU33 (#22 P.Bowen; #34 A.Adebawore)Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+11
51.8%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 Z.Thomas caught at OU23, for 11 yards to the OU22 (#5 K.Daniels), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.7%
Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 0 yards to the OU22 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 27
OPP 39
+5
57.2%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #14 T.Green caught at OU37, for 2 yards to the OU37 (#56 G.Halton) PENALTY LSU Delay Of Game (#11 M.Van Buren Jr.) 5 yards from OU39 to OU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 32
OPP 44
+18
57.5%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at OU26, for 18 yards to the OU26 (#4 C.Guillory), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
40.1%
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 07:56Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-17
33.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush middle for 17 yards loss to the OU39 fumbled by #8 J.Johnson at OU29 forced by #56 G.Halton recovered by LSU #0 Z.Thomas at OU39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2048% → 44%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.9%
PENALTY OU False Start (#5 I.Sategna III) 5 yards from OU25 to OU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
47.4%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.Gibson thrown to OU31Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
47.1%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU23 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
45.7%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #12 J.Kanak caught at OU29, for 8 yards to the OU31 QB hurried by #7 H.Perkins Jr., out of bounds at OU31Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
43.8%
#43 G.Miller punt 39 yards to the LSU30 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3264% → 66%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
36.1%
Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LSU27 (#11 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+8
37.8%
Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LSU35 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Brown thrown to LSU49 broken up by #23 E.BowenSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
34.0%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 49 yards to the OU16 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:4842% → 88%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #12 J.Kanak caught at OU20, for 9 yards to the OU25 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+17
45.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #12 J.Kanak caught at OU27, for 17 yards to the OU42 (#4 M.Delane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
88.4%
Isaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:5319% → 19%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
80.7%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at LSU45, for 4 yards to the OU47 (#10 K.Lewis; #4 C.Guillory)Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
79.8%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #13 A.Haulcy thrown to OU40 broken up by #97 M.Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
80.3%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #12 K.Parker caught at OU42, for 10 yards to the OU37 (#97 M.Jones Jr.; #22 P.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
79.7%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #8 J.Johnson caught at OU40, for 4 yards to the OU33 (#38 O.Heinecke; #22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
77.7%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #29 C.Durham caught at OU32, for 1 yard to the OU32 QB hurried by #56 G.Halton, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
79.8%
Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU29 (#4 C.Guillory)Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
81.4%
#11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #10 B.Sharp thrown to OU30 broken up by #22 P.Bowen QB hurried by #56 G.Halton, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
93.4%
Kneel down by Oklahoma at OU28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
92.8%
Kneel down by Oklahoma at OU27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:16
Isaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)
+43.1
TD · Q3 1:47
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at LSU47, for 45 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)
+19.9
FG · Q4 7:56
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 07:56
-17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com