Try the model
UK

Kentucky 0 at Louisville 41

LOU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:41 · (10:42) #93 D.Chapeau punt 32 yards to the KEN06 fair catch by #1 K.Law at KEN06
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+22.7Score differential+16.7Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:44: (04:44) #7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:44, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:18: (08:22) #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #86 J.Stewart caught at KEN26, for 43 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +13.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:53: (01:58) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the KEN06 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #3 A.Afari Jr.) — LOU win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:45: (01:45) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:45 — LOU win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:23: (08:24) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:23 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:26UK 4th & 5 at UK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39UK 4th & 23 at UK 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:44LOU 4th & 1 at UK 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:07UK 4th & 11 at LOU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56LOU 4th & 6 at UK 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:42UK 4th & 6 at UK 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:18LOU 4th & 1 at UK 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−3.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:00UK 4th & 16 at UK 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:45LOU 4th & 6 at UK 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56UK 4th & 25 at UK 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−5.4
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:34LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 43, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:30UK 4th & 2 at UK 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:41LOU 4th & 11 at UK 38, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:04UK 4th & 1 at UK 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:14UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:53LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:44LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:18LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:23LOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:22LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:23LOU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2652% → 51%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at KEN23, for 3 yards to the KEN28 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #4 J.Mack)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
48.4%
(14:25) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #3 S.McGowan caught at KEN22, for 2 yards to the KEN30 (#21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
48.5%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #4 J.Hester caught at KEN35, for 6 yards to the KEN36 (#11 T.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
48.5%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN39 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
48.5%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KEN41 (#11 T.Capers; #50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
48.6%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to KEN44Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
48.8%
(12:31) #48 A.Laros punt 34 yards to the LOU25, out of bounds at LOU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4949% → 49%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
48.8%
(12:24) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #15 A.Meeks caught at LOU40, for 23 yards to the LOU48 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
49.3%
(11:50) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #15 A.Meeks caught at KEN48, for 5 yards to the KEN47 (#30 G.Grayton)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-6
49.7%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss sacked for loss of 6 yards to the LOU47 (#34 L.Cowan), fumble by #7 M.Moss recovered by LOU #70 T.Sylvester at LOU47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
49.2%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Lacy thrown to KEN44 QB hurried by #92 K.SaundersSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
49.0%
(10:30) #93 D.Chapeau punt 42 yards to the KEN11 fair catch by #1 K.Law at KEN11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:4351% → 50%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
49.1%
(10:25) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KEN16 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #19 J.Beadles)Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+15
49.2%
(09:52) #1 K.Law rush right for 15 yards gain to the KEN31 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #12 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
49.2%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 4 yards gain to the KEN35 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
49.0%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN38 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
49.1%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #22 C.Miller caught at KEN44, for 7 yards to the KEN45 (#11 T.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.8%
(07:38) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #13 F.Farrier II thrown to KEN50 QB hurried by #50 C.LubinSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
49.0%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #7 D.Miller thrown to LOU25 broken up by #27 J.Evans Jr.Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-8
49.3%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the KEN37 (#23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 18
OWN 37
+5
50.1%
PENALTY KEN False Start (#81 W.Rodriguez) 5 yards from KEN37 to KEN32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+19
50.3%
(06:45) #48 A.Laros punt 0 yards to the KEN32 blocked by #40 E.Hazzard recovered by LOU #82 T.McWilliams Jr. at KEN29 #82 T.McWilliams Jr. return 19 yards to the KEN10 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:4951% → 55%
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
51.0%
(06:37) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KEN03 (#14 T.Bryant; #15 C.Works)Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.2%
(05:56) #46 B.Jennings rush left for 2 yards gain to the KEN01 (#7 D.Rayner; #3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.0%
(05:24) #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 0 yards to the KEN01 (#91 J.Williams; #90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.5%
(04:44) #7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:44, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:3246% → 45%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.1%
(04:43) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #3 S.McGowan caught at KEN25, for 8 yards to the KEN33 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
53.5%
(04:18) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN36 (#19 J.Beadles) PENALTY LOU Offside (#19 J.Beadles) 5 yards from KEN33 to KEN38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
54.0%
(04:04) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at KEN45, for 15 yards to the LOU47 (#34 T.Quinn; #24 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
53.5%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #2 D.Dowdell caught at LOU43, for 9 yards to the LOU38 (#24 C.Gordon; #11 T.Capers)Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+5
53.5%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU33 (#19 J.Beadles; #21 D.Hutchinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
53.1%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right thrown to LOU26 QB hurried by #34 T.Quinn PENALTY KEN Intentional Grounding (#8 C.Boley)Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+9
54.5%
(02:52) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #1 K.Law caught at LOU47, for 9 yards to the LOU34 (#21 D.Hutchinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
54.3%
(02:15) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to LOU24Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
55.3%
(02:09) #91 J.Kauwe field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin), clock 02:07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:5156% → 58%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+29
55.9%
(02:03) #7 M.Moss pass complete deep right to #3 D.Collins caught at KEN37, for 29 yards to the KEN37 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
57.3%
(01:24) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #88 J.Skinner caught at KEN40, for 17 yards to the KEN20 (#12 Q.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
57.7%
(00:41) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #3 D.Collins caught at KEN08, for 16 yards to the KEN04 (#7 D.Rayner) PENALTY LOU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#60 R.Miller) 5 yards from KEN20 to KEN25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
58.0%
(00:12) #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Lacy thrown to KEN32Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
57.6%
(00:07) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short left to #3 D.Collins thrown to KEN06 broken up by #30 G.Grayton PENALTY LOU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+9
56.9%
(00:00) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy rush left for 9 yards gain to the KEN16 (#18 C.Dooley)Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
57.7%
(14:59) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 14:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5842% → 39%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
57.9%
(14:46) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 2 yards gain to the KEN12 (#21 D.Hutchinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
58.4%
(14:10) Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KEN16 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-2
59.6%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 2 yards to the KEN14 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+2
60.7%
(12:57) #48 A.Laros punt 58 yards to the LOU28 #5 C.Lacy return 21 yards to the LOU49 (#48 A.Laros), out of bounds PENALTY LOU Illegal Block in Back (#30 R.Mosby) 10 yards from LOU30 to LOU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1359% → 76%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.3%
(12:41) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #2 T.Hurry caught at LOU27, for 7 yards to the LOU27 (#12 Q.Scott), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
59.9%
(12:10) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU30 (#3 A.Afari Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
60.0%
(11:36) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush right for 5 yards gain to the LOU35 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+13
61.2%
(11:08) Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush middle for 13 yards gain to the LOU48 (#30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
62.3%
(10:28) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #2 T.Hurry caught at KEN48, for 9 yards to the KEN43 (#30 G.Grayton)Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-2
62.7%
(09:46) #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KEN45 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
62.4%
(09:05) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KEN43 (#3 A.Afari Jr.; #95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+43
75.6%
(08:22) #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #86 J.Stewart caught at KEN26, for 43 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0427% → 25%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
73.0%
(08:08) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Maclin thrown to KEN41Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
73.2%
(08:03) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN24 (#34 T.Quinn; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-3
74.0%
(07:20) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #9 J.Maclin caught at KEN37, for 7 yards to the KEN31 PENALTY KEN Holding (#1 K.Law) 10 yards from KEN31 to KEN21Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-6
74.4%
(06:55) Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 6 yards to the KEN15 (#17 A.Green)Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+15
75.4%
(06:13) #48 A.Laros punt 54 yards to the LOU31 #5 C.Lacy return 15 yards to the LOU46 (#12 Q.Scott)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:1078% → 90%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.2%
(05:59) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #5 C.Lacy thrown to KEN40 broken up by #7 D.RaynerSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
78.1%
(05:53) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 11 yards gain to the KEN43 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
78.9%
(05:16) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KEN33 (#12 Q.Scott; #18 C.Dooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
79.4%
(04:53) #5 C.Lacy rush left for 9 yards gain to the KEN24 (#30 G.Grayton; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
80.1%
(04:12) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the KEN17 (#6 J.Hardaway), out of bounds PENALTY LOU Holding offsetting KEN Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+4
80.4%
(03:54) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the KEN20 (#6 J.Hardaway; #14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
81.0%
(03:11) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #15 A.Meeks caught at KEN13, for 11 yards to the KEN09 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
81.3%
(02:33) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the KEN03 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
83.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the KEN06 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.1%
(01:52) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #3 D.Collins thrown to KEN03 QB hurried by #3 A.Afari Jr.Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
89.7%
(01:45) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3413% → 11%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
87.4%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at KEN10, for 2 yards loss to the KEN14 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
88.4%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #26 J.Patterson thrown to KEN14 broken up by #34 T.QuinnSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-13
88.3%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 13 yards to the KEN01 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 25
OWN 1
+1
88.6%
(01:05) #48 A.Laros punt 56 yards to the LOU43 #5 C.Lacy return 1 yard to the LOU44 (#19 K.Thomas) PENALTY LOU Personal Foul (#42 J.Minkins) 15 yards from LOU44 to LOU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:2990% → 90%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
90.2%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 22 yards gain to the KEN49 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.8%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #14 K.Hughes thrown to KEN41 broken up by #12 Q.Scott. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #14 K.Hughes caught at KEN41, for 8 yards to the KEN41 (#12 Q.Scott))Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
92.3%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KEN48 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+17
92.0%
(00:36) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #2 T.Hurry caught at KEN34, for 17 yards to the KEN31 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.6%
(00:31) No Huddle #7 M.Moss pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
92.0%
(00:29) Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush left for 10 yards gain to the KEN21 fumbled by #7 M.Moss at KEN21 forced by #90 M.Humphrey-Grace (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.9%
PENALTY LOU False Start (#70 T.Sylvester) 5 yards from KEN21 to KEN26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+10
90.4%
(00:19) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush left for 9 yards gain to the KEN17 (#3 A.Afari Jr.; #14 T.Bryant) PENALTY LOU Holding (#70 T.Sylvester) 10 yards from KEN26 to KEN36. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2090% → 91%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 12 yards gain to the LOU37 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
90.9%
(14:26) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LOU43 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
91.1%
(13:56) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU46 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-3
91.4%
(13:15) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LOU43 (#35 S.Soles Jr.)Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
91.4%
(12:40) #93 D.Chapeau punt 44 yards to the KEN13 fair catch by #1 K.Law at KEN13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0110% → 10%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #1 K.Law thrown to KEN14Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
90.5%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Miller thrown to KEN35 QB hurried by #50 C.LubinSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
90.7%
(12:23) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #22 C.Miller caught at KEN19, for 8 yards to the KEN21 (#24 C.Gordon; #12 K.Perry)Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
90.5%
(11:37) #48 A.Laros punt 16 yards to the KEN37, out of bounds at KEN37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1893% → 92%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
92.8%
(11:23) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KEN38 fumbled by #46 B.Jennings at KEN39 recovered by LOU #46 B.Jennings at KEN38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
92.9%
(10:51) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #2 T.Hurry thrown to KEN31 broken up by #6 J.HardawaySimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
92.7%
(10:48) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #46 B.Jennings thrown to KEN38 broken up by #7 D.Rayner QB hurried by #3 A.Afari Jr.Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
92.2%
(10:42) #93 D.Chapeau punt 32 yards to the KEN06 fair catch by #1 K.Law at KEN06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:298% → 7%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
92.0%
(10:39) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KEN11 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #17 A.Green)Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
92.4%
(09:55) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #22 C.Miller thrown to KEN14Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+4
92.8%
(09:52) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at KEN15, for 4 yards to the KEN15, out of bounds at KEN15Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
93.0%
(09:04) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #1 K.Law thrown to KEN17 PENALTY KEN Illegal Shift declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3494% → 99%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
93.9%
(09:02) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 10 yards gain to the KEN05 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
(08:24) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:23 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
98.9%
(08:21) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep middle to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at KEN45, for 26 yards to the LOU49 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #25 T.Holloway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
98.8%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush right for 9 yards gain to the LOU40 (#21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+11
98.8%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the LOU29 (#21 D.Hutchinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.9%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LOU27 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-9
98.9%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 9 yards to the LOU36 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+5
99.2%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to LOU20 PENALTY LOU Offside (#17 A.Green) 5 yards from LOU36 to LOU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
99.1%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #25 T.Holloway at LOU01, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Maclin thrown to LOU01 broken up by #25 T.Holloway)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
21 plays · 99 yds · 10:2199% → 100%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
99.2%
(05:46) #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LOU09 (#14 T.Bryant; #18 C.Dooley)Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+8
99.2%
(05:12) #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LOU17 (#7 D.Rayner; #3 A.Afari Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.4%
(04:30) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LOU19 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
99.4%
(03:47) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 15 yards gain to the LOU34 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
(03:04) #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU38 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
(02:24) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU43 (#95 J.Smith II; #3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
99.5%
(01:47) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU46 (#94 T.Gadson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.6%
(01:08) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the KEN49 (#15 C.Works; #30 G.Grayton)Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
99.6%
(00:18) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the KEN48 (#12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
99.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #85 N.Kurisky caught at KEN45, for 6 yards to the KEN42 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.6%
(14:37) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KEN38 (#12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+7
99.7%
(13:59) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KEN31 (#34 L.Cowan; #3 A.Afari Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.7%
(13:17) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KEN27 (#18 C.Dooley)Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+16
99.7%
(12:34) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 16 yards gain to the KEN11 (#18 C.Dooley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
99.8%
(11:54) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KEN12 (#6 J.Hardaway; #34 L.Cowan)Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+5
99.8%
PENALTY LOU False Start (#88 J.Skinner) 5 yards from KEN12 to KEN17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+6
99.8%
(11:13) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KEN11 fumbled by #13 D.Adams at KEN11 forced by #95 J.Smith II recovered by LOU #13 D.Adams at KEN11, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
(10:28) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #3 D.Collins caught at KEN04, for 11 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:22, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20DOWNS
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
(10:20) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the KEN33 (#34 T.Quinn; #17 A.Green)Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN36 (#19 J.Beadles), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LOU Personal Foul (#27 J.Evans Jr.) 15 yards from KEN36 to LOU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
(09:06) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KEN24 (#9 L.Watson; #76 A.Ramsey)Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
99.9%
(08:19) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KEN15 (#18 C.Dooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
(07:39) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KEN08 (#7 D.Rayner; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
(06:51) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KEN04 (#22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
(06:08) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the KEN04 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
(05:23) #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #88 J.Skinner caught at KEN00, for 4 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:23 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KEN26 (#96 J.Coffman)Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #26 J.Patterson caught at KEN22, for 5 yards to the KEN31 (#38 C.White)Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to KEN41 broken up by #38 C.WhiteSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(04:19) #48 A.Laros punt 44 yards to the LOU25 fair catch by #80 B.Coffman at LOU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
(04:11) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the LOU24 (#3 A.Afari Jr.; #93 K.Edwards)Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
(03:30) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the LOU34 (#14 T.Bryant; #6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(02:46) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU34 (#93 K.Edwards; #35 S.Soles Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(02:03) #93 D.Chapeau punt 62 yards to the KEN04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KEN05 (#92 M.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+3
100.0%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KEN08 (#12 K.Perry; #92 M.Carter)Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 6
OWN 8
-1
100.0%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KEN07 (#97 M.Davis; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:18
(08:22) #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #86 J.Stewart caught at KEN26, for 43 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
+13.2
FG · Q2 1:45
(01:45) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:45
+6.6
TD · Q3 8:23
(08:24) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:23 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com