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MIZ

Missouri 31 at Arkansas 17

ARK
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:37 · (01:44) #37 D.Bale punt 39 yards to the MIZ16 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZ16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−5.2Pregame prior−2.9Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 14:12: (14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 14 yards loss to the MIZ32 fumbled by #9 B.Pribula at MIZ35 recovered by ARK #7 B.Shaw at MIZ32 #7 B.Shaw return 32 yards to the MIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo) — ARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:33: (09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY ARK Offside declined — MIZ win probability +7.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:11: #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 00:11 — ARK win probability +7.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:57: (12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failed — MIZ win probability +14.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:07: (08:25) #37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ33 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 67 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:07 #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution declined — MIZ win probability +24.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:14ARK 4th & 11 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:20ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:20MIZ 4th & 10 at ARK 47, tied
    Close callWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:27ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:04ARK 4th & 2 at MIZ 24, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−1.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−11.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:32MIZ 4th & 21 at MIZ 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−6.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:37ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:56MIZ 4th & 23 at ARK 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−8.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−17.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:07ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:40ARK 4th & 21 at MIZ 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:25MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:33MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:57MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:07MIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:1260% → 61%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
39.6%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush left for 49 yards gain to the ARK11 (#23 J.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
39.7%
(14:08) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARK04 (#22 C.Wooden)Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
39.4%
(13:29) Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25, 1ST DOWN #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5940% → 39%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
39.5%
(13:24) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #88 R.Jones caught at ARK43, for 26 yards to the MIZ49 (#2 T.Pride Jr.; #6 J.Catalon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
39.7%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 2 yards loss to the ARK49 (#13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+9
39.6%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 R.Sharpe caught at MIZ46, for 9 yards to the MIZ42 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
39.8%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ38 (#40 J.Trotter) PENALTY ARK Illegal Shift (#83 J.Platt) 5 yards from MIZ42 to MIZ47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+2
39.7%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #4 M.Washington caught at MIZ50, for 2 yards to the MIZ45 (#6 J.Catalon)Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+5
39.5%
(10:35) PENALTY ARK False Start (#9 O.Blake) 5 yards from MIZ45 to MIZ50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 11
50
0
39.3%
(10:21) #37 D.Bale punt 50 yards to the MIZ00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5161% → 61%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
39.2%
(10:12) #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush left for 16 yards gain to the MIZ36 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
38.9%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #87 B.Norfleet caught at MIZ39, for 13 yards to the MIZ49 (#42 W.Simmons), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
38.5%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 5 yards gain to the ARK46 (#23 J.Neal)Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-2
38.2%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ARK48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-3
38.1%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MIZ49 (#20 J.Shelton)Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+13
38.7%
(07:21) #45 C.Weselman punt 37 yards to the ARK14 #15 K.Shanks return 13 yards to the ARK27, out of bounds at ARK27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4139% → 45%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
39.0%
(07:12) #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #3 C.Brown caught at ARK37, for 14 yards to the ARK41 (#12 D.Norwood; #40 J.Trotter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
39.3%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARK44 (#20 N.Rodriguez), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
39.4%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #3 C.Brown thrown to MIZ34 broken up by #13 D.CarnellSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
39.1%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK50, for 8 yards to the MIZ48 (#40 J.Trotter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
39.8%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIZ41 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
39.8%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #88 R.Jones thrown to MIZ37Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+15
39.7%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #3 C.Brown caught at MIZ36, for 15 yards to the MIZ26 (#13 D.Carnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
40.3%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush right for 6 yards gain to the MIZ20 (#14 T.Newson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+5
40.3%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIZ15 (#9 Z.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.4%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #83 J.Platt thrown to MIZ12 QB hurried by #8 D.Wilson IISimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
40.4%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 1 yard loss to the MIZ16 (#10 S.Webb)Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
44.9%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at MIZ00, for 16 yards to the MIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:20, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5FUMBLE TD
9 plays · -23 yds · 2:5757% → 51%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
42.7%
(02:15) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 7 yards gain to the MIZ30 (#3 L.Worth III; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
42.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIZ35 (#1 P.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.5%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #87 B.Norfleet thrown to MIZ40Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
42.8%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIZ41 (#19 S.Smalls)Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
41.9%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIZ44 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
42.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ46 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #42 W.Simmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+32
48.9%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 14 yards loss to the MIZ32 fumbled by #9 B.Pribula at MIZ35 recovered by ARK #7 B.Shaw at MIZ32 #7 B.Shaw return 32 yards to the MIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2950% → 58%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.4%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIZ29 (#10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
50.3%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 10 yards gain to the MIZ39 (#3 L.Worth III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
50.2%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 16 yards gain to the ARK45 (#3 L.Worth III), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ARK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#10 X.Sorey) 15 yards from ARK45 to ARK30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
48.6%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK25 (#3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
48.5%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARK22 (#13 K.Walker)Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
49.7%
(11:42) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK17 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
49.1%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK13 (#1 P.Lee; #5 C.Ball)Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
49.5%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #0 J.Manning caught at ARK16, for 2 yards to the ARK11 (#3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+11
41.8%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY ARK Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:0847% → 47%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
(09:33) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to ARK43Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.4%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK36 (#1 M.Burks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.6%
(08:55) PENALTY ARK False Start (#9 O.Blake) 5 yards from ARK36 to ARK31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
46.9%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK29, for 6 yards to the ARK37 (#15 S.Banner), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
47.4%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 0 yards to the ARK37 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+11
46.9%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
49.6%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARK50 (#5 K.Jacobs)Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 8
50
-2
50.0%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sharpe rush left for 2 yards loss to the ARK48 (#1 M.Burks) PENALTY ARK Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
47.9%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short left to #15 K.Shanks thrown to MIZ49 PENALTY ARK Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
47.0%
(05:28) #37 D.Bale punt 52 yards to the MIZ00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 2 yds · 4:0055% → 54%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.7%
(05:20) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ24 (#44 F.Mulipola) PENALTY ARK Offside (#0 J.Boone) 5 yards from MIZ20 to MIZ25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+1
44.0%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIZ26 (#44 F.Mulipola; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
44.2%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 15 yards gain to the MIZ41 (#23 J.Neal) PENALTY MIZ Holding (#77 C.Peagler) 10 yards from MIZ26 to MIZ16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
45.5%
PENALTY ARK Personal Foul (#23 J.Neal) 15 yards from MIZ16 to MIZ31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.4%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 0 yards to the MIZ31 (#1 P.Lee; #42 W.Simmons)Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
45.1%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZ35 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+7
45.2%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to MIZ42, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (#13 K.Walker) 7 yards from MIZ35 to MIZ42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
42.9%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 11 yards gain to the ARK47 (#7 B.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
41.7%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK45 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-2
41.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 2 yards loss to the ARK47 (#5 C.Ball)Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
44.1%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #87 B.Norfleet thrown to ARK45Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OPP 47
-31
46.1%
(01:20) No Huddle Missouri rush middle for 31 yards loss to the MIZ22 fumbled by Missouri at MIZ22 recovered by MIZ #45 C.Weselman at MIZ22, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
11 plays · 12 yds · 0:2156% → 61%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
55.9%
Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #4 M.Washington caught at MIZ23, for 4 yards to the MIZ15, out of bounds at MIZ15Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
56.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIZ10 (#20 N.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
56.0%
PENALTY ARK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#21 K.Davila) 15 yards from MIZ22 to MIZ37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
54.2%
Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short middle to #9 O.Blake thrown to MIZ00 broken up by #15 S.BannerSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
55.5%
(00:18) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #83 J.Platt caught at MIZ32, for 5 yards to the MIZ32 (#13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+10
56.7%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ30, End Of Play PENALTY ARK Holding (#75 K.Broussard) 10 yards from MIZ32 to MIZ42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+23
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at MIZ24, for 23 yards to the MIZ19 (#2 T.Pride Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
61.1%
#80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 00:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIZ21 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1755% → 53%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
54.7%
(14:54) Shotgun #6 R.Sharpe rush right for 5 yards loss to the ARK25 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
54.2%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #4 M.Washington thrown to ARK21Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
53.0%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK27, for 6 yards to the ARK31 (#6 J.Catalon; #7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
52.9%
(13:35) #37 D.Bale punt 39 yards to the MIZ30 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZ30 PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation (#88 R.Jones) 5 yards from MIZ30 to MIZ35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2447% → 61%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.7%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short left to #87 B.Norfleet thrown to MIZ36 QB hurried by #5 C.BallSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.2%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZ37 (#95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
54.0%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #20 J.Roberts caught at MIZ35, for 10 yards to the MIZ47 (#23 J.Neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
39.4%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:2744% → 44%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.5%
(11:56) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 7 yards gain to the ARK32 fumbled by #4 M.Washington at ARK28 forced by #1 M.Burks recovered by ARK #3 C.Brown at ARK32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
46.0%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #83 J.Platt thrown to ARK43 QB hurried by #9 Z.YoungSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.2%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK36 (#1 M.Burks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
44.8%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ARK33 (#7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+22
41.1%
(10:20) Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #6 R.Sharpe caught at MIZ49, for 22 yards to the MIZ45 (#15 S.Banner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
46.0%
(09:44) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIZ36 (#13 D.Carnell; #15 S.Banner)Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+4
46.1%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIZ32 (#81 B.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
47.8%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #83 J.Platt thrown to MIZ26 QB hurried by #81 B.HendersonSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
47.7%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at MIZ34, for 4 yards to the MIZ28 (#20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
46.1%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short left to #9 O.Blake caught at MIZ26, for 4 yards to the MIZ24 (#2 T.Pride Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
44.0%
(07:09) #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 07:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:2561% → 58%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
39.1%
(07:04) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIZ30 (#95 I.Geffrard; #88 D.Saili)Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
37.5%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIZ33 (#1 P.Lee)Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
38.0%
(05:52) #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZ33 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #42 W.Simmons)Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
39.2%
PENALTY ARK Offside (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.) 5 yards from MIZ33 to MIZ38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
35.9%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIZ40 (#14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
35.5%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush right for 11 yards gain to the ARK49 (#13 K.Walker) PENALTY MIZ Illegal Formation (#79 K.Trost) 5 yards from MIZ40 to MIZ35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
38.7%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #87 B.Norfleet caught at MIZ34, for 0 yards to the MIZ35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-8
39.9%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MIZ27 (#13 K.Walker)Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 21
OWN 27
+13
41.6%
(02:44) #45 C.Weselman punt 43 yards to the ARK30 #15 K.Shanks return 13 yards to the ARK43, out of bounds at ARK43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4944% → 40%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.4%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep right to #3 C.Brown thrown to MIZ34Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
42.5%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK45 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
41.2%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Brown thrown to ARK50 broken up by #19 D.SmithSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
39.7%
(01:44) #37 D.Bale punt 39 yards to the MIZ16 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZ16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:3362% → 75%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
38.3%
(01:36) Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MIZ31 (#3 L.Worth III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
37.1%
(01:17) Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIZ34 (#15 J.Singletary), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+11
36.8%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush left for 11 yards gain to the MIZ45 (#16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
34.9%
PENALTY MIZ False Start (#70 C.Green) 5 yards from MIZ45 to MIZ40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
36.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZ40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+1
37.5%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIZ41 (#1 P.Lee; #95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+38
41.0%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 38 yards gain to the ARK21 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
33.6%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush left for 8 yards gain to the ARK13 (#3 L.Worth III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
31.5%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK09 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
31.4%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK05 (#13 K.Walker)Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
28.9%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK04 (#5 C.Ball) PENALTY MIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#55 C.Tollison) 15 yards from ARK04 to ARK19Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
-4
31.5%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ARK23 (#5 C.Ball)Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+41
25.3%
(09:59) #48 O.Robbins field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #38 H.Crosby), clock 09:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT TD
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4231% → 6%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
(09:55) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Washington thrown to ARK23 broken up by #15 S.BannerSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.9%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-12
30.7%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 12 yards to the ARK18 (#8 D.Wilson II)Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+67
6.3%
(08:25) #37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ33 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 67 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:07 #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:186% → 4%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.2%
(08:06) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 6 yards gain to the ARK31, out of bounds at ARK31Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
6.5%
(07:35) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ARK41 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #40 J.Trotter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.9%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Brown thrown to ARK45 PENALTY ARK Illegal Touch-Pass (#3 C.Brown). NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
5.7%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #27 C.Settles caught at ARK49, for 11 yards to the MIZ48 (#15 S.Banner), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #27 C.Settles caught at ARK43, for 9 yards to the ARK50 (#15 S.Banner), out of bounds)Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
5.3%
(06:27) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at MIZ36, for 10 yards to the MIZ38 (#0 S.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
5.4%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIZ44 (#7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
4.9%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #27 C.Settles thrown to MIZ38 broken up by #20 N.RodriguezSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-5
4.7%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MIZ49 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
4.1%
(04:47) #37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ00, Touchback PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation (#42 W.Simmons) 5 yards from MIZ20 to MIZ25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19END OF HALF
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:0496% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
3.6%
(04:40) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 25 yards gain (1) to the MIZ50 (#88 D.Saili) PENALTY MIZ Holding (#55 C.Tollison) 10 yards from MIZ26 to MIZ16Similar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+9
4.0%
(04:30) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 9 yards gain to the MIZ25 (#44 F.Mulipola) PENALTY ARK Illegal Use Of Hands (#10 X.Sorey) 15 yards from MIZ25 to MIZ40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
2.6%
(03:57) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 9 yards gain to the MIZ49 (#44 F.Mulipola)Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
2.0%
(03:09) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK47 (#95 I.Geffrard; #44 F.Mulipola), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
2.1%
(03:00) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 12 yards gain to the ARK35 (#3 L.Worth III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
2.0%
(02:13) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARK32 (#3 L.Worth III; #44 F.Mulipola)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+8
1.5%
(02:06) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK24 (#22 C.Wooden; #42 W.Simmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
1.6%
(01:55) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK19 (#3 L.Worth III; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
1.3%
(01:43) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARK15 (#42 W.Simmons; #95 I.Geffrard) PENALTY ARK Block Below Waist (#22 C.Wooden) 8 yards from ARK15 to ARK07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.8%
(01:12) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 1 yard loss to the ARK08 (#95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
1.2%
(00:36) Kneel down by #9 B.Pribula at ARK10 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:07
(08:25) #37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ33 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 67 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:07 #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution declined
-24.3
TD · Q3 11:57
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failed
-14.6
TD · Q2 9:33
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY #48 O.Robbins kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) PENALTY ARK Offside declined
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com