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UK

Kentucky 17 at Vanderbilt 45

VAN
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:01 · (10:09) #38 N.Haberer punt 55 yards to the UK12 #1 K.Law return 12 yards to the UK24 (#10 L.Patterson) PENALTY UK Holding (#16 J.Smith) 6 yards from UK12 to UK06
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense+4.7Score differential+0.7Pregame prior+15.1Blowout margin−0.5Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:05: (01:05) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris), clock 01:05 — UK win probability +0.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:03: Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +4.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:35: Tre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:59: Jacob Kauwe 47 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +0.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:38: Tre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:53UK 4th & 8 at UK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:40VAN 4th & 3 at UK 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05VAN 4th & 12 at UK 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:00UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21UK 4th & 21 at UK 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:53VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.5%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59UK 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:46VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:48UK 4th & 6 at UK 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:04UK 4th & 2 at VAN 9, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:00VAN 4th & 5 at UK 9, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:03VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:35VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:14VAN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:17VAN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:41UK Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:02UK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 4:0028% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush right for 0 yards to the UK25 (#29 M.Capers)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.3%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #87 H.Boyer caught at UK30, for 6 yards to the UK31 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
72.1%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK36 (#10 L.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
72.0%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK39 (#96 K.Sydnor; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
71.8%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK41 (#11 B.Longwell; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
71.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #1 K.Law caught at UK37, for 3 yards loss to the UK38 (#2 R.Fontenette)Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
71.8%
(10:58) #48 A.Laros punt 36 yards to the Vandy26, out of bounds at Vandy26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 9:4272% → 70%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
71.7%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vandy30 (#34 L.Cowan; #22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
71.6%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Vandy31 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+14
71.3%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #28 S.Alexander caught at Vandy44, for 14 yards to the Vandy45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
71.6%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #16 C.Spence caught at UK46, for 12 yards to the UK43 (#22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
71.7%
(08:01) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK42 (#22 G.Godfrey; #9 L.Watson)Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+13
71.6%
(07:22) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at UK38, for 13 yards to the UK29 (#12 Q.Scott; #14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
71.7%
(06:38) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #16 C.Spence caught at UK32, for 9 yards to the UK20 (#14 T.Bryant) PENALTY Vandy Holding (#55 B.Henderson) 10 yards from UK20 to UK30Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 11
OPP 30
+5
71.6%
(06:05) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 5 yards gain to the UK25 (#1 K.Olds; #7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
71.6%
(05:21) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK22 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
71.1%
(04:34) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 0 yards to the UK22 (#7 D.Rayner; #90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+3
70.5%
(03:48) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at UK19, for 3 yards to the UK19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
71.4%
(03:09) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK16 (#92 K.Saunders; #7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
71.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at UK10, for 6 yards to the UK10, out of bounds at UK10 PENALTY Vandy Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#55 B.Henderson) 5 yards from UK16 to UK21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
71.3%
(01:55) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at UK22, for 0 yards to the UK21 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
70.6%
(01:09) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.Hudson thrown to UK00 broken up by #30 G.GraytonSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
70.2%
(01:05) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris), clock 01:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:5029% → 28%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.8%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK26, for 8 yards to the UK33 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
70.1%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK34 (#2 R.Fontenette; #54 M.Nelson)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
70.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 4 yards loss to the UK30 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
71.5%
PENALTY UK False Start (#84 J.Kattus) 5 yards from UK30 to UK25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
(14:06) #48 A.Laros punt 51 yards to the Vandy24 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy24 PENALTY Vandy Holding (#23 C.Lawrence) 10 yards from Vandy24 to Vandy14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:5070% → 75%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
70.2%
(14:01) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy11, for 5 yards to the Vandy19 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+10
70.1%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy30, for 10 yards to the Vandy29 (#30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.3%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to Vandy38Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+71
75.1%
Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5525% → 24%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 0 yards to the UK25 (#29 M.Capers)Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #13 F.Farrier II thrown to UK38 broken up by #6 J.MatthewsSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #3 S.McGowan thrown to UK28 QB hurried by #96 K.Sydnor and #15 Z.WoodSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.3%
(12:06) #48 A.Laros punt 53 yards to the Vandy22 #4 M.Hight return 9 yards to the Vandy31 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4976% → 75%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
75.5%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy26, for 4 yards to the Vandy35 (#18 C.Dooley)Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
75.8%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at Vandy39, for 5 yards to the Vandy40 (#12 Q.Scott), out of bounds PENALTY Vandy Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#70 C.McConnell) 5 yards from Vandy35 to Vandy30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-5
75.6%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Vandy21 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace, #92 K.Saunders)Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+12
75.0%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy21, for 12 yards to the Vandy33 (#9 L.Watson). #55 B.Henderson injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
74.8%
(10:09) #38 N.Haberer punt 55 yards to the UK12 #1 K.Law return 12 yards to the UK24 (#10 L.Patterson) PENALTY UK Holding (#16 J.Smith) 6 yards from UK12 to UK06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:3724% → 22%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
76.3%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #1 K.Law thrown to UK06Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+9
76.5%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UK15 (#92 J.Stone; #7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+5
76.8%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #22 C.Miller caught at UK20, for 5 yards to the UK20, out of bounds at UK20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.3%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush right for 1 yard loss to the UK19 (#9 K.Koht; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
76.9%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to UK23 broken up by #8 C.Heard QB hurried by #8 C.HeardSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
77.5%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UK09 (#7 M.Sewell, #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
78.2%
(07:25) #48 A.Laros punt 51 yards to the Vandy40 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3878% → 88%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.8%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Vandy45 (#9 L.Watson; #12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-4
78.1%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Vandy41 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+19
77.3%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #1 T.Hudson caught at UK44, for 19 yards to the UK40 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
78.7%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #23 A.Newberry caught at UK38, for 12 yards to the UK28 (#9 L.Watson; #22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
78.9%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #3 T.Brown caught at UK21, for 13 yards to the UK15 (#30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.2%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #6 T.Richardson thrown to UK05Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
88.4%
Tre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4615% → 14%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
85.4%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 J.Hester caught at UK23, for 18 yards to the UK43 (#1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
85.1%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at Vandy44, for 13 yards to the Vandy44 (#1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWN. #8 C.Boley injured on the playSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.5%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Calzada pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Hester thrown to Vandy00 broken up by #8 C.HeardSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
85.0%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Calzada pass complete short left to #7 D.Miller caught at Vandy47, for 2 yards loss to the Vandy46 (#17 M.Davis; #92 J.Stone)Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-4
86.1%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Calzada pass intercepted by #3 K.Taylor at Vandy22 #3 K.Taylor return 4 yards to the Vandy26, out of bounds at Vandy26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3689% → 88%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
88.7%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy32, for 7 yards to the Vandy33 (#6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
88.9%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Hudson thrown to Vandy45Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
88.5%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 2 yards gain to the Vandy35 (#7 D.Rayner; #34 L.Cowan)Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-2
87.9%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Vandy33 (#15 C.Works; #7 D.Rayner), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:4517% → 19%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
83.4%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Calzada pass complete short left to #1 K.Law caught at Vandy35, for 4 yards to the Vandy29 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
83.4%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Z.Calzada pass complete short left to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at Vandy28, for 2 yards to the Vandy27 (#8 C.Heard; #17 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-2
83.4%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 2 yards to the Vandy29 (#96 K.Sydnor)Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
81.4%
Jacob Kauwe 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:1786% → 95%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at Vandy28, for 8 yards to the Vandy33 (#30 G.Grayton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
86.4%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #28 S.Alexander caught at Vandy45, for 11 yards to the Vandy44 (#30 G.Grayton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
94.5%
Tre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13INT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:307% → 5%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to UK31 QB hurried by #15 Z.WoodSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
92.5%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK35, for 14 yards to the UK39 (#0 M.Jones Jr.; #17 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.0%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #3 S.McGowan thrown to UK38Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.9%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK46, for 8 yards to the UK47 (#0 M.Jones Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
93.7%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at Vandy48, for 5 yards to the Vandy48 (#0 M.Jones Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.5%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to Vandy25 QB hurried by #95 L.ZunkSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-36
94.8%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #4 M.Hight at Vandy06 #4 M.Hight return 36 yards to the Vandy42 (#81 W.Rodriguez) PENALTY Vandy UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0598% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
PENALTY UK Offside (#60 D.Gusta) 5 yards from Vandy25 to Vandy30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
98.2%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush left for 1 yard loss to the Vandy29 (#22 G.Godfrey; #14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
98.3%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vandy33 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.3%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #44 G.Fisher caught at Vandy31, for 1 yard to the Vandy34 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
98.3%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 11 yards gain to the Vandy45, out of bounds at Vandy45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
98.7%
(12:18) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at UK47, for 8 yards to the UK47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
98.7%
(11:34) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK44 (#22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
98.9%
(10:55) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #28 S.Alexander thrown to UK20 PENALTY UK Roughing The Passer (#92 K.Saunders) 15 yards from UK44 to UK29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
98.9%
(10:50) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #28 S.Alexander caught at UK16, for 18 yards to the UK11 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Vandy UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#70 C.McConnell) 15 yards from UK11 to UK26Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.0%
(10:12) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UK28 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+21
99.1%
(09:29) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 21 yards gain to the UK07, out of bounds at UK07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Junior Sherrill 7 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 4 yards gain to the UK29 (#99 J.Singh; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.2%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK31 (#99 J.Singh)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #84 J.Kattus thrown to UK33 broken up by #4 M.HightSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
(07:35) #48 A.Laros punt 44 yards to the Vandy25 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0699% → 100%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.4%
(07:28) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #22 M.Young caught at Vandy22, for 11 yards to the Vandy36 (#14 T.Bryant), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.4%
(06:49) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #22 M.Young caught at Vandy31, for 6 yards to the Vandy42 (#22 G.Godfrey)Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.5%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 5 yards gain to the Vandy47, out of bounds at Vandy47 PENALTY Vandy Holding offsetting UK Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
99.5%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #9 E.Stowers caught at Vandy46, for 7 yards to the Vandy49 (#7 D.Rayner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.5%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at Vandy47, for 7 yards to the UK44 (#9 L.Watson)Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+16
99.5%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #28 S.Alexander caught at UK40, for 16 yards to the UK28 (#18 C.Dooley; #12 Q.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.5%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #28 S.Alexander thrown to UK36 QB hurried by #90 M.Humphrey-Grace and #60 D.GustaSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
99.5%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #9 E.Stowers caught at UK25, for 16 yards to the UK12 (#30 G.Grayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.6%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK09 (#76 A.Ramsey; #95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
99.6%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #22 M.Young caught at UK09, for 3 yards to the UK06 (#6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Diego Pavia 6 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 0 yards to the UK25 (#17 M.Davis; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep middle to #84 J.Kattus thrown to UK48Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #3 S.McGowan caught at UK20, for 4 yards to the UK29 (#2 R.Fontenette; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
(01:53) #48 A.Laros punt 45 yards to the Vandy26 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at Vandy26 PENALTY UK Illegal Formation 5 yards from Vandy26 to Vandy31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+37
99.7%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy50, for 37 yards to the UK32 (#44 A.Smith; #14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.7%
Richie Hoskins 32 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #13 F.Farrier II caught at UK22, for 2 yards loss to the UK23 (#20 P.Kollie)Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
99.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #84 J.Kattus caught at UK31, for 6 yards to the UK29 (#22 B.Cowan)Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #13 F.Farrier II caught at UK33, for 7 yards to the UK36 (#6 J.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.8%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK47, for 12 yards to the UK48 (#1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.8%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Vandy45 (#92 J.Stone; #20 P.Kollie)Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
99.8%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vandy41 (#22 B.Cowan; #92 J.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #1 K.Law thrown to Vandy39 QB hurried by #2 R.FontenetteSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.8%
J.J. Hester 41 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.8%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at Vandy32, for 21 yards to the Vandy46 (#18 C.Dooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-28
99.8%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass intercepted by #14 T.Bryant at UK28 #14 T.Bryant return 28 yards to the Vandy44, out of bounds at Vandy44 PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#35 S.Soles Jr.) 15 yards from Vandy44 to UK41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21INT
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #3 S.McGowan thrown to UK43 QB hurried by #22 B.CowanSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+20
99.8%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at Vandy46, for 20 yards to the Vandy39 (#27 J.Lackey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Vandy37 (#20 P.Kollie; #22 B.Cowan)Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+20
99.9%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at Vandy24, for 20 yards to the Vandy17 (#23 C.Lawrence), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at Vandy19, for 4 yards to the Vandy13 (#2 R.Fontenette)Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
99.8%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Vandy09 (#53 G.Seabrooks III). #53 A.Selm injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
99.8%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to Vandy08 QB hurried by #24 N.Rinaldi and #29 M.CapersSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+8
99.8%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at Vandy02, for 8 yards to the Vandy01 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-35
99.8%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #4 M.Hight at Vandy01 #4 M.Hight return 35 yards to the Vandy36 (#1 K.Law) PENALTY Vandy UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 K.Taylor) 15 yards from Vandy36 to Vandy21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 70 yds · 7:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
99.8%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz pass complete short middle to #3 T.Brown caught at Vandy25, for 18 yards to the Vandy39 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at Vandy38, for 3 yards to the Vandy42 (#7 D.Rayner; #6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UK49 (#15 C.Works; #29 J.Schulz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
99.9%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 J.Lassiter rush left for 3 yards gain to the UK46 (#19 K.Thomas; #29 J.Schulz) PENALTY Vandy Holding (#56 G.Givens) 10 yards from UK49 to Vandy41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+27
99.9%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz pass complete deep left to #16 C.Spence caught at UK33, for 27 yards to the UK32 (#1 K.Olds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #81 K.Barnett rush right for 0 yards to the UK32 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #43 D.Rezac rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK28 (#7 D.Rayner) PENALTY UK Targeting (#13 D.Williams) 14 yards from UK28 to UK14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.9%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 J.Lassiter rush left for 1 yard loss to the UK15 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz pass complete short left to #45 E.Adebi caught at UK14, for 7 yards to the UK08 (#7 D.Rayner; #29 J.Schulz)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-1
99.9%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UK09 (#34 L.Cowan)Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
0
99.9%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete short middle to #6 T.Richardson thrown to UK00 broken up by #7 D.Rayner, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
100.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK14 (#34 A.Howard; #54 M.Nelson)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
100.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #13 F.Farrier II caught at UK20, for 7 yards to the UK21 (#20 P.Kollie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
100.0%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK28, for 8 yards to the UK29 (#26 C.Daniels; #14 J.Ruth), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+19
100.0%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #87 H.Boyer caught at UK40, for 19 yards to the UK48 (#40 J.Curtis; #34 A.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #22 C.Miller thrown to Vandy39 broken up by #18 J.GilbertSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
100.0%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #22 C.Miller caught at Vandy33, for 20 yards to the Vandy32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
100.0%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #26 J.Patterson thrown to Vandy33Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
100.0%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #87 H.Boyer thrown to Vandy24 broken up by #18 J.GilbertSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
100.0%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at Vandy17, for 15 yards to the Vandy17, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
100.0%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #13 F.Farrier II thrown to Vandy00 broken up by #26 C.DanielsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
100.0%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #26 J.Patterson caught at Vandy13, for 8 yards to the Vandy09 (#26 C.Daniels; #40 J.Curtis)Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Fred Farrier II 9 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:35
Tre Richardson 15 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q2 0:38
Tre Richardson 56 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q2 13:03
Tre Richardson 71 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com