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MER

Mercer 17 at Auburn 62

AUB
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:45 · (02:48) #14 H.Kaak punt 41 yards to the MER10 fair catch by #9 B.Smith at MER10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+21.2Home team on offense+33.5Score differential+23.5Blowout margin+10.8Garbage-time factor+10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:00: (08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 9 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:00 #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes) — AUB win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:09: (04:09) #93 R.Griffith field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #19 J.McConnell, LS: #56 J.Hamilton), clock 04:09 — MER win probability +1.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:15: (01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 20 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes) — AUB win probability +3.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: (00:04) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at MER00, for 10 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:03, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes) — AUB win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:46: Elijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick) — AUB win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MER made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:07AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:53MER 4th & 10 at AUB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:09MER 4th & 8 at AUB 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:23MER 4th & 12 at AUB 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:08MER 4th & 6 at MER 42, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:45AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 49, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:31MER 4th & 2 at MER 18, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:03AUB 4th & 13 at MER 29, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:24AUB 4th & 22 at MER 31, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:46MER 4th & 5 at MER 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:06MER 4th & 4 at AUB 38, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MER made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:45AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:52MER Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:59MER Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:00AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:15AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:46AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:08AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:11AUB Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
96.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 75 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:45, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:253% → 4%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.8%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #18 A.Dabbs caught at MER28, for 3 yards to the MER28 (#4 K.Lee)Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
96.8%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MER32 (#97 B.Jamison-Travis)Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+36
96.7%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete deep left to #9 B.Smith caught at AUB40, for 36 yards to the AUB32, out of bounds at AUB32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.6%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep left to #2 A.McDaniel thrown to AUB10Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
96.6%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB28 (#19 S.Smith; #17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+25
96.5%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #18 A.Dabbs caught at AUB25, for 25 yards to the AUB03 (#8 K.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.4%
(11:37) #22 C.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB01 (#97 B.Jamison-Travis)Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
(10:58) #22 C.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:52 #93 R.Griffith kick attempt good (H: #19 J.McConnell, LS: #56 J.Hamilton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.2%
(10:43) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AUB32 (#10 J.Fox)Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
96.1%
(10:23) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB36 (#7 C.O'neal)Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-4
96.0%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards loss to the AUB32 (#46 I.Prince)Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
95.8%
(09:10) #14 H.Kaak punt 38 yards to the MER30, out of bounds at MER30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 4TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:064% → 7%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
95.8%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MER37 (#17 X.Atkins; #8 K.Harris)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
95.6%
(08:39) Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush left for 0 yards to the MER37 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
95.6%
(08:08) Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #9 B.Smith caught at MER40, for 7 yards to the MER44 (#4 K.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.4%
(07:35) Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short right to #7 K.Harris thrown to MER50 broken up by #19 S.SmithSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
95.4%
(07:30) Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AUB45 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
95.1%
(06:48) Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #9 B.Smith caught at AUB35, for 13 yards to the AUB32 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.9%
(06:08) Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 0 yards to the AUB32 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
94.8%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep left to #7 K.Harris thrown to AUB10 broken up by #4 K.Lee QB hurried by #3 C.Murray PENALTY AUB Holding (#4 K.Lee) 10 yards from AUB32 to AUB22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
94.7%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AUB16 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.; #8 K.Harris)Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
94.6%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB14 (#10 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
94.5%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #2 A.McDaniel caught at AUB16, for 5 yards to the AUB09 (#25 E.Winters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.2%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short right to #7 K.Harris thrown to AUB00Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.2%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB08 (#47 M.Blocton)Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.0%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #18 A.Dabbs caught at AUB00, for 8 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:59 #93 R.Griffith kick attempt good (H: #19 J.McConnell, LS: #56 J.Hamilton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2093% → 94%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
(02:57) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 1 yard gain to the AUB26 (#51 D.Clare)Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
93.0%
(02:35) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB35, for 11 yards to the AUB37 (#4 D.Watkins; #12 T.Bliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
93.0%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short right to #4 M.Simmons caught at AUB44, for 9 yards to the AUB46 (#8 K.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
93.1%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 0 yards to the AUB46 (#51 D.Clare)Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
92.7%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB49 (#46 I.Prince), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.6%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete deep left to #8 C.Coleman thrown to MER10 broken up by #8 K.ThomasSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
92.5%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Simmons thrown to MER35 broken up by #7 C.O'nealSimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+51
93.8%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush middle for 51 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:257% → 8%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.5%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #22 C.Miller caught at MER23, for 16 yards to the MER41 (#4 K.Lee; #9 E.Melendez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MER44 (#96 M.Autry)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
92.7%
(14:23) Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush right for 7 yards gain to the AUB49 (#4 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
92.5%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB45 (#21 A.Fegans) PENALTY MER Holding (#74 A.Atchison) 10 yards from AUB49 to MER41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
92.7%
(13:24) Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short right to #18 A.Dabbs thrown to AUB50 broken up by #23 J.Crawford QB hurried by #24 K.CrawfordSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+4
92.6%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #2 A.McDaniel caught at MER44, for 4 yards to the MER45 (#4 K.Lee)Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+6
92.5%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #18 A.Dabbs caught at MER44, for 6 yards to the AUB49 (#16 B.Deas)Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
92.4%
(11:58) #19 J.McConnell punt 49 yards to the AUB00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5193% → 94%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
92.6%
(11:51) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB22 (#17 K.Hutchinson) PENALTY AUB Holding (#65 X.Chaplin) 10 yards from AUB20 to AUB10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
92.4%
(11:28) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB12 (#10 J.Fox)Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+20
92.2%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush middle for 20 yards gain to the AUB32 (#10 J.Fox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.2%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete short right to #15 P.Howard thrown to AUB35Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
92.2%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to AUB35 broken up by #4 D.WatkinsSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.8%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Coleman thrown to AUB35 PENALTY MER Offside (#15 K.McInnis) 5 yards from AUB32 to AUB37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
92.0%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short right to #3 P.Thompson caught at AUB44, for 11 yards to the AUB48 (#13 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
92.5%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MER42 (#51 D.Clare), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
92.5%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #15 P.Howard caught at MER40, for 5 yards to the MER37 (#13 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-2
92.3%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush right for 2 yards loss to the MER39 (#51 D.Clare)Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+30
92.0%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete deep middle to #4 M.Simmons caught at MER19, for 30 yards to the MER09 (#1 D.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.2%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 9 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:00 #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 8FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:467% → 10%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the MER25 (#96 M.Autry)Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.3%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #22 C.Miller caught at MER39, for 14 yards to the MER39 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
92.8%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 12 yards gain to the AUB49 (#5 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
92.4%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB45 (#35 D.Walker)Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
92.2%
(05:49) Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep middle to #2 A.McDaniel thrown to AUB04Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+19
92.3%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #18 A.Dabbs caught at AUB32, for 19 yards to the AUB26 (#4 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.5%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short right to #2 A.McDaniel thrown to AUB29Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.6%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Coard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB24 (#25 E.Winters)Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
91.9%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep right to #2 A.McDaniel thrown to AUB00Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
90.3%
(04:09) #93 R.Griffith field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #19 J.McConnell, LS: #56 J.Hamilton), clock 04:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:4591% → 94%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.9%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB38 (#51 D.Clare)Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
91.2%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short middle to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at AUB43, for 8 yards to the AUB46 (#12 T.Bliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
91.4%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB48 (#12 T.Bliss)Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
91.3%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Coleman thrown to MER45Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
90.7%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 15 yards gain to the MER37 (#10 J.Fox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
91.2%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 1 yard gain to the MER36 (#15 K.McInnis)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+3
91.0%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 3 yards gain to the MER33 (#51 D.Clare), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
90.7%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short middle to #4 M.Simmons caught at MER28, for 13 yards to the MER20 (#8 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.4%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 20 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 10INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:376% → 6%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MER29 (#9 E.Melendez)Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
93.4%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #85 S.Burt caught at MER30, for 0 yards to the MER29 (#9 E.Melendez)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-16
93.7%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass intercepted by #8 K.Harris at MER49 #8 K.Harris return 16 yards to the MER33 (#11 B.Atkinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:1594% → 96%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
94.3%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at MER25, for 8 yards to the MER25 (#12 T.Bliss)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
94.3%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short right to #4 M.Simmons caught at MER21, for 6 yards to the MER19 (#7 C.O'neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
94.2%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at MER10, for 9 yards to the MER10 (#46 I.Prince)Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
95.8%
(00:04) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at MER00, for 10 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:03, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.8%
(00:01) Kneel down by Mercer at MER24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 13INT TD
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:094% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.2%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush right for 1 yard loss to the MER24 (#10 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
96.3%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #9 B.Smith caught at MER33, for 9 yards to the MER33 (#5 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
96.0%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #7 K.Harris caught at MER34, for 5 yards to the MER38 (#5 J.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
95.9%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MER36 (#24 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+8
96.2%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #2 A.McDaniel caught at MER44, for 8 yards to the MER44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-41
98.8%
Elijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:181% → 1%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 T.Doughty caught at MER30, for 7 yards to the MER32 (#19 S.Smith), out of bounds PENALTY AUB Targeting (#19 S.Smith) 15 yards from MER32 to MER47, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 T.Doughty caught at MER30, for 7 yards to the MER32 (#19 S.Smith), out of bounds)Similar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.9%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MER50 (#91 Z.Walker)Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 7
50
+11
98.9%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #9 B.Smith caught at AUB48, for 11 yards to the AUB39 (#21 A.Fegans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.9%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AUB32 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-9
98.8%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the AUB41 (#3 C.Murray)Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
99.0%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep middle to #7 K.Harris thrown to AUB00Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
99.0%
(08:28) #19 J.McConnell punt 32 yards to the AUB09 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
99.7%
(08:22) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete deep middle to #4 M.Simmons caught at MER50, for 91 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:08, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:510% → 1%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush right for 0 yards to the MER25 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short middle to #18 A.Dabbs thrown to MER27Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #18 A.Dabbs caught at MER38, for 13 yards to the MER38 (#8 K.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.4%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short middle to #80 T.Doughty thrown to MER35 QB hurried by #17 X.AtkinsSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.4%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 T.Doughty rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MER42 (#97 B.Jamison-Travis)Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
99.3%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short right to #2 A.McDaniel thrown to MER45 broken up by #4 K.LeeSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.3%
(06:14) #19 J.McConnell punt 48 yards to the AUB10 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.7%
(06:05) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AUB17 (#17 K.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+19
99.7%
(05:47) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB25, for 19 yards to the AUB36 (#4 D.Watkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.8%
(05:24) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 6 yards to the AUB30 (#1 D.Hicks)Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AUB37 (#13 J.Johnson; #12 T.Bliss)Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
99.8%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #23 J.Cobb caught at AUB40, for 10 yards to the AUB47 (#12 T.Bliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Simmons thrown to MER40Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #8 C.Coleman thrown to MER42Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.8%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at AUB45, for 2 yards to the AUB49 (#1 D.Hicks)Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
99.8%
(02:48) #14 H.Kaak punt 41 yards to the MER10 fair catch by #9 B.Smith at MER10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.8%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MER15 (#25 E.Winters)Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MER17 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+1
99.9%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #27 M.Bell caught at MER15, for 1 yard to the MER18 (#41 J.Smith)Similar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
(00:36) #19 J.McConnell punt 36 yards to the AUB46 #4 M.Simmons return 6 yards to the MER48 (#83 C.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.8%
(00:29) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards loss to the AUB49 (#46 I.Prince; #0 A.Zock)Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+13
99.8%
(14:58) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at MER40, for 13 yards to the MER38 (#7 C.O'neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.8%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short middle to #8 C.Coleman caught at MER26, for 12 yards to the MER26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MER23 (#53 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 2 yards gain to the MER21 (#51 D.Clare)Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-8
99.9%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MER29 (#46 I.Prince)Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
99.9%
(12:06) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 12:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the MER25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Coard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MER28 (#43 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Smith sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MER19 (#3 C.Murray), fumble by #1 D.Smith recovered by AUB #92 J.Hardy at MER19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.9%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Smith rush right for 5 yards loss to the MER24 (#12 T.Bliss)Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete short right to #35 J.Jones caught at MER25, for 3 yards to the MER21 (#8 K.Thomas)Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
PENALTY AUB False Start (#65 X.Chaplin) 5 yards from MER21 to MER26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 17
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush middle for 5 yards loss to the MER31 (#0 A.Zock)Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 22
OPP 31
+49
99.9%
(08:27) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 08:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MER30 (#16 B.Deas)Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush middle for 0 yards to the MER30 (#3 C.Murray)Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Smith pass incomplete short right to #9 B.Smith thrown to MER30 broken up by #21 A.FegansSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
(06:53) #19 J.McConnell punt 37 yards to the AUB33, out of bounds at AUB33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AUB41 (#13 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 J.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB44 (#34 M.Bradley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 56 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:11, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #46 K.McNutt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Bell rush left for 1 yard gain to the MER26 (#44 D.Smith; #96 M.Autry)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
100.0%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Smith rush right for 9 yards gain to the MER35, out of bounds at MER35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
100.0%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 T.Coard rush middle for 21 yards gain to the AUB44 (#18 J.Faulk), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
100.0%
(03:03) Shotgun #20 C.Benjamin rush right for 3 yards loss to the AUB47 (#42 C.Granberry)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
(02:26) Shotgun #19 J.Pickles rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AUB42 (#18 J.Faulk)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
100.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #19 J.Pickles rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB38 (#25 E.Winters; #95 J.Crawford)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+13
100.0%
(01:12) Shotgun #19 J.Pickles pass complete short right to #25 T.Coard caught at AUB30, for 13 yards to the AUB25 (#21 A.Fegans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
100.0%
(01:04) Shotgun #9 B.Smith rush left for 2 yards loss to the AUB27 (#18 J.Faulk)Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
(00:31) Shotgun #25 T.Coard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB24 (#18 J.Faulk)Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
100.0%
(00:00) Shotgun #19 J.Pickles pass incomplete deep left to #7 K.Harris thrown to AUB02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:15
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 20 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)
+3.7
TD · Q3 11:46
Elijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 8:00
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 9 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:00 #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com