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ARK

Arkansas 22 at LSU 23

LSU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:47 · (02:56) #37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the LSU40. #23 A.Anding injured on the play
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+9.1Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:06: (04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 11 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:06, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo) — ARK win probability +4.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:54: (14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush left for 27 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall) — LSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: (00:06) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 00:03 — LSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:02: (04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 9 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:02 #10 T.Green rush attempt Successful — ARK win probability +27.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:53: (07:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at ARK00, for 12 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53, 1ST DOWN #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall) — LSU win probability +26.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:58LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:23ARK 4th & 2 at LSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10ARK 4th & 1 at LSU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:02LSU 4th & 11 at ARK 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:08LSU 4th & 5 at ARK 25, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−3.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42LSU 4th & 21 at LSU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−2.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56LSU 4th & 11 at ARK 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:57ARK 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−13.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:31ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:43LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:08ARK 4th & 4 at LSU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−2.0
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−8.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:58ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:06ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:02ARK Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:53LSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:2733% → 34%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 7 yards gain to the ARK32 (#13 A.Haulcy; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
66.6%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #83 J.Platt caught at ARK37, for 18 yards to the ARK50 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+17
66.5%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #9 O.Blake caught at LSU48, for 17 yards to the LSU33 (#11 P.Woodland), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
66.3%
(13:09) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LSU24 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
66.2%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to LSU15 broken up by #4 M.DelaneSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-2
66.2%
(12:29) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LSU26 fumbled by #4 M.Washington at LSU27 recovered by LSU #44 J.Pyburn at LSU26, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2267% → 65%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
66.5%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LSU29 (#4 J.Young)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
66.5%
(11:50) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #0 Z.Thomas thrown to LSU45 broken up by #95 I.GeffrardSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+2
66.3%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the LSU31 (#5 C.Ball), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+16
64.8%
Caleb Wooden 16 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Scott Starzyk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5665% → 64%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
(10:56) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Anderson thrown to LSU40Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.9%
(10:51) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU20, for 3 yards to the LSU28 (#22 C.Wooden), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
64.4%
(10:10) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU40Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
64.2%
(10:04) #90 G.Chadwick punt 24 yards to the ARK48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:3936% → 44%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
63.9%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #1 R.Hill caught at ARK47, for 9 yards to the LSU43 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-1
63.5%
(09:17) No Huddle #1 R.Hill rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LSU44 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
63.0%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Brown thrown to LSU20Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+6
63.2%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 6 yards gain to the LSU38 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
62.4%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sharpe rush right for 11 yards gain to the LSU27 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
62.0%
(07:14) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LSU20 (#13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
61.6%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 2 yards gain to the LSU18 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
61.3%
(05:56) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush right for 0 yards to the LSU18 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+8
60.9%
(05:15) #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #83 J.Platt caught at LSU17, for 8 yards to the LSU10 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
60.0%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sharpe rush right for 1 yard loss to the LSU11 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
56.0%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 11 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:06, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0457% → 60%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.4%
(04:06) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LSU32 (#5 C.Ball)Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
55.9%
(03:28) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #29 C.Durham caught at LSU31, for 10 yards to the LSU42 (#95 I.Geffrard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.0%
(02:52) #29 C.Durham rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU42 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #4 J.Young)Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
55.3%
(02:08) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #22 H.Berry caught at LSU37, for 13 yards to the ARK45 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
55.3%
(01:32) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK43 (#20 J.Shelton)Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+11
54.5%
(00:55) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ARK33, for 11 yards to the ARK32 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.6%
(00:18) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Brown thrown to ARK25Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
54.5%
(00:14) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ARK35, for 5 yards to the ARK27 (#0 J.Boone; #20 J.Shelton)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
60.1%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush left for 27 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:5743% → 42%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.5%
(14:54) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK39 (#0 T.Cooley; #7 H.Perkins Jr.) PENALTY ARK Holding declined ARK Tripping (#50 K.Branham) 15 yards from ARK35 to ARK20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+6
57.9%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK16, for 6 yards to the ARK26 (#4 M.Delane)Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+4
57.8%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK30 (#12 J.Butler; #44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
57.8%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right thrown to ARK40 QB hurried by #7 H.Perkins Jr.Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
58.2%
(13:04) #37 D.Bale punt 52 yards to the LSU18 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:4857% → 58%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
57.1%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU19 (#42 W.Simmons)Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+2
56.6%
(12:22) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 J.Johnson caught at LSU17, for 2 yards to the LSU21 (#4 J.Young)Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+20
55.4%
(11:37) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU38, for 20 yards to the LSU41 (#22 C.Wooden; #19 S.Smalls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
57.4%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the LSU35 (#14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+11
55.5%
(10:24) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU32, for 11 yards to the LSU46 (#23 J.Neal)Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+22
55.8%
(09:42) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #29 C.Durham caught at LSU48, for 22 yards to the ARK32 (#20 J.Shelton), 1ST DOWN. #20 J.Shelton injured on the playSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
58.0%
(09:06) #29 C.Durham rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK30 (#42 W.Simmons)Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
57.8%
(08:31) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #22 H.Berry caught at ARK35, for 2 yards to the ARK28 (#42 W.Simmons)Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
55.4%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 5 yards to the ARK33 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
57.6%
(07:07) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 07:02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
(07:01) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #7 H.Perkins Jr. at ARK30 #7 H.Perkins Jr. return 0 yards to the ARK30 (#9 O.Blake)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3962% → 62%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
61.7%
(06:55) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #22 H.Berry caught at ARK29, for 9 yards to the ARK21 (#14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-1
61.6%
(06:27) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARK22 (#13 K.Walker; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
60.2%
(05:49) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK21 (#95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
59.0%
(05:27) PENALTY LSU False Start (#77 O.Williams) 4 yards from ARK21 to ARK25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
61.9%
(05:12) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 05:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:2041% → 40%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.6%
(05:07) PENALTY ARK False Start (#50 K.Branham) 5 yards from ARK25 to ARK20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-6
58.9%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ARK14 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+12
58.9%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK26, for 12 yards to the ARK26 (#4 M.Delane), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
59.2%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ARK17 (#10 D.Spears)Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
60.0%
(02:56) #37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the LSU40. #23 A.Anding injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 1:0062% → 57%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.1%
(02:47) No Huddle #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Brown thrown to ARK40. #6 B.Brown injured on the playSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
60.7%
(02:40) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LSU39 (#10 X.Sorey; #13 K.Walker)Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
59.0%
(02:01) PENALTY ARK Offside (#10 X.Sorey) 5 yards from LSU39 to LSU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+15
60.7%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #22 H.Berry caught at LSU50, for 6 yards to the LSU50, End Of Play PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (#0 Z.Thomas) 15 yards from LSU44 to LSU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 21
OWN 29
0
57.6%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #22 H.Berry thrown to LSU30Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+50
57.0%
(01:51) #90 G.Chadwick punt 50 yards to the ARK21 #15 K.Shanks return for loss of 1 yard to the ARK20 (#0 T.Cooley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12INT
12 plays · 71 yds · 1:0243% → 47%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.4%
(01:42) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARK22 (#33 W.Weeks), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
57.6%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Brown thrown to ARK32 broken up by #3 D.PickettSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+13
58.7%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 13 yards gain to the ARK35 (#13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Offside declined. #13 A.Haulcy injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.3%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Brown thrown to ARK50Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.7%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK41 (#95 S.Washington; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+24
54.9%
(00:53) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK49, for 24 yards to the LSU35 (#4 M.Delane), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
52.0%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete deep left to #2 C.Crutchfield caught at LSU11, for 26 yards to the LSU09 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
52.7%
(00:41) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU09 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
52.7%
(00:37) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #4 M.Delane at LSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:2660% → 73%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
60.1%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 14 yards gain to the LSU34 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
56.8%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 14 yards gain to the LSU48 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
61.4%
(00:22) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Brown thrown to ARK10 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (#22 C.Wooden) 15 yards from LSU48 to ARK37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.0%
(00:15) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Hilton Jr. thrown to ARK02 broken up by #23 J.NealSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
61.8%
(00:12) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ARK25, for 12 yards to the ARK25 (#17 N.Pringle), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
72.9%
(00:06) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 00:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4766% → 65%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
66.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ARK47, for 34 yards to the ARK41 (#13 K.Walker; #16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
69.3%
(14:20) #22 H.Berry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK36 (#3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-6
69.3%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ARK42 (#10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
67.4%
(13:04) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 T.Green thrown to ARK35 broken up by #19 S.SmallsSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
65.3%
(13:01) #90 G.Chadwick punt 30 yards to the ARK12 fair catch by #15 K.Shanks at ARK12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:5335% → 37%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
65.5%
(12:55) #4 M.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK15 (#13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+55
65.5%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 55 yards gain to the LSU30 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
60.7%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 23 yards gain to the LSU07 (#3 D.Pickett; #13 A.Haulcy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
60.2%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 2 yards gain to the LSU05 (#13 A.Haulcy; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.8%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 0 yards to the LSU05 (#25 J.Toviano) PENALTY LSU Offside (#88 B.Gooden) 3 yards from LSU05 to LSU02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.8%
(10:03) No Huddle #27 C.Settles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU01 (#90 J.Guillory). #55 F.Carmona injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.0%
(09:35) #4 M.Washington rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU01 (#96 D.McKinley; #44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.8%
(08:58) #10 T.Green rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU01 (#90 J.Guillory; #33 W.Weeks), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5165% → 63%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
65.3%
(08:56) No Huddle #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU06 (#7 B.Shaw; #4 J.Young)Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 6
-2
65.1%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 2 yards to the LSU04 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+8
63.7%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the LSU12 (#20 J.Shelton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
65.4%
(06:57) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU04 QB hurried by #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
65.2%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the LSU15 (#22 C.Wooden), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
63.8%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #1 A.Anderson thrown to LSU30 broken up by #20 J.SheltonSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+26
63.1%
(06:11) #90 G.Chadwick punt 50 yards to the ARK35 #15 K.Shanks return 26 yards to the LSU39 (#10 B.Sharp), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5139% → 65%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
60.6%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 2 yards gain to the LSU37 (#33 W.Weeks; #46 T.Singleton)Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-11
60.3%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 11 yards to the LSU48 (#97 D.Carpenter) PENALTY ARK Intentional Grounding (#10 T.Green)Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+13
63.7%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at LSU43, for 13 yards to the LSU35 (#8 J.Jackson; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+16
62.5%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #6 R.Sharpe caught at LSU26, for 16 yards to the LSU19 (#0 T.Cooley; #3 D.Pickett), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Face Mask (#11 P.Woodland) 10 yards from LSU19 to LSU09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.2%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 9 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:02 #10 T.Green rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1344% → 41%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.0%
(04:02) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 1 yard loss to the LSU24 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.; #95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
43.4%
(03:26) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU38, for 14 yards to the LSU38, End Of Play PENALTY LSU Holding (#75 W.Davis) 10 yards from LSU24 to LSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
42.8%
(03:05) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU10, for 7 yards to the LSU21 (#14 S.Dix Jr.). #0 Z.Thomas injured on the playSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
40.9%
(02:29) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #2 D.Hill caught at LSU18, for 10 yards to the LSU31 (#16 M.Mitchell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
40.9%
(01:49) #90 G.Chadwick punt 34 yards to the ARK35 fair catch by #6 R.Sharpe at ARK35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2765% → 65%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.2%
(01:42) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush left for 12 yards gain to the ARK47 (#0 T.Cooley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
33.1%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ARK45 (#14 C.Jackson; #90 J.Guillory)Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-7
33.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARK38 (#88 B.Gooden, #14 C.Jackson)Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 19
OWN 38
+10
35.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 R.Sharpe rush left for 10 yards gain to the ARK48 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
35.1%
(14:14) #37 D.Bale punt 44 yards to the LSU08 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 6:1040% → 70%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
40.3%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LSU15 (#22 C.Wooden; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+7
40.5%
(13:26) Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush right for 7 yards gain to the LSU22 (#7 B.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
40.3%
(12:46) Shotgun #0 Z.Thomas pass incomplete short left to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU41. #14 T.Green injured on the playSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
40.1%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush right for 0 yards to the LSU22 (#14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+21
37.9%
(11:56) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU41, for 21 yards to the LSU43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
43.5%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush left for 6 yards gain to the LSU49 (#23 J.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+14
41.7%
(11:00) Shotgun #8 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #14 T.Green caught at ARK41, for 14 yards to the ARK37 (#16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
41.4%
(10:19) #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #12 K.Parker caught at ARK28, for 10 yards to the ARK27 (#16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
43.9%
(09:50) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #12 K.Parker caught at ARK30, for 6 yards to the ARK21 (#3 L.Worth III; #16 M.Mitchell) PENALTY LSU Holding (#14 T.Green) 10 yards from ARK21 to ARK31Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 14
OPP 31
+15
42.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #0 Z.Thomas thrown to ARK10 PENALTY ARK Face Mask (#13 K.Walker) 15 yards from ARK31 to ARK16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
43.7%
(09:26) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK14 (#14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
43.3%
(08:43) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #29 C.Durham caught at ARK18, for 2 yards to the ARK12 (#13 K.Walker), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
70.2%
(07:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at ARK00, for 12 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53, 1ST DOWN #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3239% → 41%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
60.9%
(07:52) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #3 C.Brown caught at ARK50, for 16 yards to the LSU49 (#3 D.Pickett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
55.4%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 13 yards gain to the LSU36 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
54.2%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 7 yards gain to the LSU29 (#33 W.Weeks; #44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-1
53.1%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 1 yard loss to the LSU30 (#96 D.McKinley; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
55.2%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short left to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to LSU26 broken up by #4 M.Delane. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
59.3%
(05:13) #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 05:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23END OF GAME
17 plays · 55 yds · 4:3866% → 81%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
65.9%
(05:08) PENALTY LSU False Start (#10 B.Sharp) 5 yards from LSU30 to LSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-1
65.1%
(05:08) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #8 J.Johnson caught at LSU24, for 1 yard loss to the LSU24 (#10 X.Sorey; #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+35
63.8%
(04:20) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 35 yards gain to the ARK41 (#16 M.Mitchell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
71.8%
(03:36) #29 C.Durham rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK36 (#7 B.Shaw; #4 J.Young)Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
73.4%
(02:54) #29 C.Durham rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK33 (#10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
73.8%
(02:10) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK30 (#4 J.Young; #14 S.Dix Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
78.2%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK28 (#10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
77.8%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK23 (#5 C.Ball; #95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+13
75.9%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 13 yards gain to the ARK10, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
83.5%
(01:10) Kneel down by LSU at ARK12 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
83.4%
(01:10) Kneel down by LSU at ARK14 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
80.8%
(00:30) Kneel down by LSU at ARK15 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:02
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 9 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:02 #10 T.Green rush attempt Successful
-27.3
TD · Q4 7:53
(07:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at ARK00, for 12 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53, 1ST DOWN #34 D.Ramos kick attempt good (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall)
+26.8
FG · Q2 0:03
(00:06) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 00:03
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com