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Oklahoma 23 at Alabama 21

ALA
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:11 · (06:17) #43 G.Miller punt 39 yards to the ALA20 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:36: (10:36) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird) — ALA win probability +8.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:13: (06:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird) — ALA win probability +9.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ALA +2 timeouts on the defense).
  3. FG · Q3 10:38: (10:42) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 10:38 — OU win probability +8.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:27: (07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:27 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #52 A.Rozier) — ALA win probability +16.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:41: (13:42) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 13:41 — OU win probability +13.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33OU 4th & 5 at ALA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11OU 4th & 17 at OU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34OU 4th & 5 at OU 30, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:16OU 4th & 7 at ALA 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06ALA 4th & 10 at OU 39, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%
    36% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:38OU 4th & 8 at ALA 34, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:09OU 4th & 6 at ALA 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:49ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 27, up 1
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00OU 4th & 9 at OU 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:41OU 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−16.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:38ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−5.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:14OU 4th & 20 at midfield, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−8.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:06ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%−13.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:50ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−9.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:03OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:36ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:49OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:13ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:27ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2068% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
68.3%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Cuevas thrown to ALA25Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.3%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ALA23 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
68.2%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush right for 0 yards to the ALA23 (#97 M.Jones Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+42
68.1%
(13:46) #38 B.Doud punt 49 yards to the OU 28 #5 I.Sategna III return 42 yards to the ALA30 (#22 L.Overton; #17 L.Brooks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4432% → 32%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
67.9%
(13:29) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #4 D.Burks caught at ALA20, for 18 yards to the ALA12 (#2 Z.Brown; #10 J.Jefferson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
67.8%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA08 (#0 D.Lawson; #5 D.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
67.6%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #4 D.Burks caught at ALA06, for 1 yard to the ALA07 (#23 J.Smith; #10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
67.6%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Gibson thrown to ALA02Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
67.6%
(11:34) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 11:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1568% → 67%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
67.7%
(11:32) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ALA18 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-1
67.5%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA15, for 1 yard loss to the ALA17 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
67.3%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #2 R.Williams thrown to OU 41Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
67.1%
(10:18) #38 B.Doud punt 46 yards to the OU 37 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:5033% → 33%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.3%
(10:09) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU 41 (#94 E.Hill)Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
67.0%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 4 yards gain to the OU 45 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
66.9%
(09:13) #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 48 (#41 N.Hill-Green; #8 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
66.5%
(08:29) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 49 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
66.5%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 6 yards gain to the ALA45 (#41 N.Hill-Green) PENALTY OU Illegal Block in Back (#18 K.Helms) 15 yards from OU 49 to OU 34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 24
OWN 34
+1
66.8%
(07:35) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 1 yard gain to the OU 35 (#41 N.Hill-Green), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+6
67.0%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU 32, for 6 yards to the OU 41 (#18 B.Hubbard; #3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
66.9%
(06:17) #43 G.Miller punt 39 yards to the ALA20 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5INT TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:5767% → 62%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
66.9%
(06:10) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA34, for 17 yards to the ALA37 (#25 M.Boganowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
67.5%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA38, for 8 yards to the ALA45 (#5 K.Daniels; #25 M.Boganowski)Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
68.1%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 1 yard gain to the ALA46 (#11 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
67.2%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA48 (#22 P.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
67.3%
(03:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at OU 37, for 15 yards to the OU 37 (#4 C.Guillory), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
67.5%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 7 yards gain to the OU 30 (#13 R.Powers III; #99 M.Strong)Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
68.1%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to OU 35 broken up by #13 R.Powers III. The previous play is under automatic review - "Forward pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to OU 35 broken up by #13 R.Powers III)Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+7
68.1%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at OU 35, for 7 yards to the OU 23 fumbled by #4 D.Hill at OU 35 forced by #13 R.Powers III recovered by ALA #17 L.Brooks at OU 23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Forward pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to OU 35 broken up by #13 R.Powers III)Similar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-87
62.1%
(02:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass intercepted by #23 E.Bowen at OU 13 QB hurried by #10 K.Lewis #23 E.Bowen return 87 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:03 #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:0960% → 67%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
60.2%
(01:56) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA27, for 3 yards to the ALA31 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
59.6%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA43, for 11 yards to the ALA42 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
59.8%
(00:28) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA44 (#0 D.Stone)Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
59.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA40, for 8 yards to the OU 48 (#1 J.Hardy; #97 M.Jones Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
59.6%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush left for 9 yards gain to the OU 39 (#4 C.Guillory)Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
58.9%
(13:21) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to OU 25Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
58.8%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OU 36 (#52 D.Williams; #0 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
58.0%
(12:38) #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #81 K.Edwards caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 11 (#7 S.Omosigho), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
58.4%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #1 I.Horton thrown to OU 01Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
58.3%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the OU 09 (#7 S.Omosigho; #44 T.Wein)Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+7
57.0%
(11:17) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass intercepted by #3 R.Spears-Jennings at OU 00 #3 R.Spears-Jennings return 10 yards to the OU 10 (#80 J.Cuevas) PENALTY OU Pass Interference (#5 K.Daniels) 7 yards from OU 09 to OU 02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.3%
(10:36) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 01 (#52 D.Williams)Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
(10:36) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5837% → 37%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
(10:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Burks thrown to OU 35 broken up by #10 J.JeffersonSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.4%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OU 30 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
62.5%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to OU 35 QB hurried by #41 N.Hill-GreenSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+14
63.5%
(09:50) #43 G.Miller punt 53 yards to the ALA17 #2 R.Williams return 14 yards to the ALA30 fumbled by #2 R.Williams at ALA30 forced by #1 J.Hardy recovered by OU #7 S.Omosigho at ALA31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:2640% → 48%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
59.7%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #12 J.Kanak caught at ALA22, for 11 yards to the ALA20 (#2 Z.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
52.0%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 20 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:49, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1253% → 65%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
53.3%
(08:41) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete deep right to #2 R.Williams caught at OU 48, for 38 yards to the OU 40 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
54.3%
(07:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #5 G.Bernard caught at OU 36, for 5 yards to the OU 35 (#23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
55.2%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #17 L.Brooks caught at OU 38, for 6 yards to the OU 29 (#23 E.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.1%
(07:04) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #5 G.Bernard thrown to OU 13Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
54.9%
(06:54) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 4 yards gain to the OU 25 (#25 M.Boganowski; #52 D.Williams)Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+25
64.6%
(06:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4438% → 40%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.4%
(06:12) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #12 J.Kanak caught at OU 31, for 12 yards to the OU 37 (#10 J.Jefferson; #18 B.Hubbard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
61.2%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #24 X.Robinson caught at OU 34, for 8 yards to the OU 45 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
60.0%
(05:06) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ALA49 (#94 E.Hill; #1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.2%
(04:30) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 1 yard gain to the ALA48 (#1 D.Jackson)Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
59.3%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #5 I.Sategna III caught at ALA49, for 2 yards to the ALA46 (#16 R.Morgan; #3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
59.0%
(03:31) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #6 T.Blaylock thrown to ALA49 QB hurried by #42 Y.PierreSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+5
60.4%
(03:25) #43 G.Miller punt 38 yards to the ALA08 #7 C.Adams return 5 yards to the ALA13 (#7 S.Omosigho), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11MISSED FG
19 plays · 69 yds · 2:5661% → 66%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.9%
(03:15) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #26 J.Miller caught at ALA13, for 0 yards to the ALA13 (#13 R.Powers III)Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+14
60.3%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA18, for 14 yards to the ALA27 (#38 O.Heinecke; #1 J.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
60.2%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA31, for 8 yards to the ALA35 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+14
58.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA40, for 14 yards to the ALA49 (#34 A.Adebawore; #3 R.Spears-Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
59.6%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at OU 49, for 2 yards to the OU 49 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
59.5%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 13 yards gain to the OU 36 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings) PENALTY ALA Holding (#5 G.Bernard) 10 yards from OU 49 to ALA41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+16
56.3%
(00:58) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA45, for 16 yards to the OU 43 (#23 E.Bowen)Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
59.0%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 40, for 4 yards to the OU 39 (#44 T.Wein), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.4%
(00:29) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #26 J.Miller thrown to OU 35Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
59.1%
(00:25) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #5 G.Bernard thrown to OU 15 QB hurried by #44 T.WeinSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
60.3%
(00:19) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #5 G.Bernard thrown to OU 20Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+15
60.8%
(00:13) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #1 I.Horton caught at OU 29, for 15 yards to the OU 24 (#22 P.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
65.6%
(00:05) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at OU 18, for 6 yards to the OU 18, out of bounds at OU 18Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+36
65.6%
(00:02) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD blocked by #44 T.Wein (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird), clock 00:00, out of bounds at OU 00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:1044% → 54%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
55.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 I.Sategna III rush right for 21 yards gain to the OU 46 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
53.5%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ALA47 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
52.4%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 8 yards gain to the ALA39 (#22 L.Overton; #96 T.Keenan III) PENALTY OU Holding (#56 M.Fasusi) 10 yards from ALA47 to OU 43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
54.4%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #24 X.Robinson caught at OU 42, for 0 yards to the OU 43 (#16 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+21
55.3%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #5 I.Sategna III caught at ALA40, for 21 yards to the ALA36 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
52.3%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #5 I.Sategna III caught at ALA38, for 3 yards loss to the ALA39 fumbled by #5 I.Sategna III at ALA39 forced by #16 R.Morgan, out of bounds at ALA39Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-2
52.8%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ALA41 (#3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+7
54.2%
(11:21) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #84 J.Carter caught at ALA35, for 7 yards to the ALA34 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
46.1%
(10:42) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 10:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0651% → 72%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
(10:37) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA41Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
50.2%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 28 yards gain to the OU 47 (#23 E.Bowen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.2%
(09:49) #4 D.Hill rush left for 0 yards to the OU 47 (#13 R.Powers III)Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+20
53.5%
(09:08) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 48, for 20 yards to the OU 27 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
55.8%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete deep right to #1 I.Horton caught at OU 03, for 26 yards to the OU 01 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.7%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the OU 01 (#56 G.Halton)Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.2%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:27 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #52 A.Rozier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1435% → 36%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
(07:27) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Burks thrown to OU 30 broken up by #96 T.Keenan IIISimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
65.5%
(07:23) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #84 J.Carter caught at OU 41, for 22 yards to the OU 47 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
61.5%
(06:58) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #84 J.Carter caught at ALA45, for 7 yards to the ALA46 (#1 D.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
60.5%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 1 yard gain to the ALA45 (#16 R.Morgan; #0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-4
61.4%
(05:43) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 4 yards loss to the ALA49 (#42 Y.Pierre) PENALTY OU Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
64.4%
(05:15) #43 G.Miller punt 49 yards to the ALA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0368% → 66%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.7%
(05:09) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #4 D.Hill caught at ALA22, for 4 yards to the ALA24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
68.0%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 3 yards gain to the ALA27 (#7 S.Omosigho; #11 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
67.1%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA38Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
65.8%
(03:56) #38 B.Doud punt 38 yards to the OU 35 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3935% → 33%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
64.8%
(03:49) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 36 (#94 E.Hill)Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
64.8%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to OU 40Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
66.0%
(03:13) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short left to #84 J.Carter thrown to OU 50 PENALTY OU Chop Block declinedSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+11
67.5%
(03:12) #43 G.Miller punt 57 yards to the ALA07 #2 R.Williams return 11 yards to the ALA18 (#17 T.Heim)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0267% → 65%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
66.5%
(02:56) #26 J.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA22 (#52 D.Williams; #0 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+8
66.4%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush right for 8 yards gain to the ALA30 (#22 P.Bowen; #0 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
66.6%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush left for 1 yard gain to the ALA31 (#19 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
66.4%
(01:00) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA30 QB hurried by #44 T.Wein and #34 A.AdebaworeSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
64.9%
(00:56) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ALA28 (#44 T.Wein), fumble by #15 T.Simpson recovered by OU #5 K.Daniels at ALA28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5843% → 55%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
57.1%
(00:49) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush left for 3 yards gain to the ALA25 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+15
57.0%
(00:14) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short right to #5 I.Sategna III thrown to ALA08 PENALTY ALA Pass Interference (#16 R.Morgan) 15 yards from ALA25 to ALA10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
56.9%
(00:13) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush middle for 0 yards to the ALA10 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
56.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 T.Blaylock rush left for 4 yards gain to the ALA06 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.7%
(14:23) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush right for 0 yards to the ALA06 (#3 K.Sabb; #2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
45.3%
(13:42) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 13:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5650% → 45%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.4%
(13:41) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 5 yards gain to the ALA30 (#7 S.Omosigho)Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
50.3%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 0 yards to the ALA30 (#11 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
48.2%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ALA23 (#12 D.Jordan)Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
44.8%
(11:43) #38 B.Doud punt 47 yards to the OU 30 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:1556% → 57%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.7%
(11:36) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 0 yards to the OU 30 (#11 J.Renaud; #24 N.Carter)Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
44.6%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #11 J.Gibson caught at OU 38, for 11 yards to the OU 41 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
40.5%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush right for 4 yards gain to the OU 45 (#0 D.Lawson; #11 J.Renaud)Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
40.1%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Kanak thrown to OU 50 broken up by #41 N.Hill-GreenSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
41.0%
(09:50) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short left to #11 J.Gibson caught at ALA49, for 15 yards to the ALA40 (#5 D.Lee Jr.; #12 Z.Mincey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
37.6%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush left for 3 yards gain to the ALA37 (#17 K.Collins)Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
37.0%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ALA33 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
36.4%
PENALTY OU False Start (#55 E.Pierre-Louis) 5 yards from ALA33 to ALA38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-12
37.2%
(07:26) Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass incomplete short middle thrown to ALA45 QB hurried by #17 K.Collins PENALTY OU Intentional Grounding (#10 J.Mateer)Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 20
50
0
43.4%
(07:14) #43 G.Miller punt 44 yards to the ALA06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 42 yds · 6:1641% → 19%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
41.3%
(07:14) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 3 yards gain to the ALA09 (#12 D.Jordan)Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
38.9%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA11 (#10 K.Lewis), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+9
36.5%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA20, for 9 yards to the ALA20 (#4 C.Guillory), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
38.9%
(05:14) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush left for 8 yards gain to the ALA28 (#38 O.Heinecke)Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
48.9%
(04:35) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA33 (#4 C.Guillory), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
47.2%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA35 (#22 P.Bowen)Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
46.4%
(03:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #17 L.Brooks caught at ALA40, for 6 yards to the ALA41 (#22 P.Bowen; #99 M.Strong). #17 L.Brooks injured on the playSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
52.7%
(02:56) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA42 (#11 K.McKinzie; #56 G.Halton)Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
48.7%
(02:08) Shotgun #17 L.Brooks rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA44 (#3 R.Spears-Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
39.8%
(01:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ALA33 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 21
OWN 33
0
34.3%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep right to #1 I.Horton thrown to OU 43Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+15
29.7%
(01:36) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #1 I.Horton caught at ALA48, for 15 yards to the ALA48 (#10 K.Lewis)Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
19.1%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Williams thrown to OU 46 broken up by #22 P.Bowen, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3092% → 94%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
7.7%
(00:47) Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at ALA49 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
6.3%
(00:34) Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at ALA50 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 12
50
-3
5.8%
(00:16) Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at OU 47 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:27
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:27 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #52 A.Rozier)
+16.6
FG · Q4 13:41
(13:42) #29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson), clock 13:41
-13.4
TD · Q2 6:13
(06:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com