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LSU

LSU 9 at Alabama 20

ALA
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:45 · (01:52) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at LSU15, for 4 yards to the LSU15 (#4 M.Delane), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense+27.1Garbage-time factor+15.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score differential+5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:27: (12:30) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 12:27 — LSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:25: (09:24) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:25 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird) — ALA win probability +4.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: (00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU00, for 13 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird) — ALA win probability +8.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:54: (08:57) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 08:54 — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:28: (10:28) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 10:28 — LSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:35ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:49LSU 4th & 6 at ALA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42ALA 4th & 10 at LSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:20ALA 4th & 12 at LSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27LSU 4th & 2 at ALA 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28ALA 4th & 7 at LSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:56LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:54LSU 4th & 27 at ALA 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:26ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:09LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:28LSU 4th & 20 at ALA 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:42ALA 4th & 9 at LSU 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:25ALA 4th & 2 at LSU 26, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:45ALA 4th & 3 at LSU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:25ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:0575% → 74%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
(14:55) Shotgun #17 L.Brooks rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA27 (#13 A.Haulcy)Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
74.7%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA29 (#88 B.Gooden)Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
74.5%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #26 J.Miller caught at ALA31, for 9 yards to the ALA38 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
74.5%
(12:57) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU48, for 14 yards to the LSU48 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
74.6%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush left for 7 yards gain to the LSU41 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
74.5%
(11:41) #26 J.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the LSU39 (#44 J.Pyburn; #90 J.Guillory)Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
74.4%
(11:09) No Huddle #15 T.Simpson rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU39 (#12 J.Butler; #33 W.Weeks)Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
74.1%
(10:39) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU39 (#33 W.Weeks), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 5:4626% → 28%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
73.6%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#75 W.Davis) 5 yards from LSU39 to LSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+12
73.7%
(10:35) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LSU46 fumbled by #22 H.Berry at LSU36 forced by #18 B.Hubbard recovered by LSU #1 A.Anderson at LSU46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+16
73.3%
(09:49) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short middle to #4 N.Anderson caught at ALA45, for 16 yards to the ALA38 (#7 D.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.1%
(09:22) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA36 (#96 T.Keenan III; #0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
72.8%
(08:44) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush left for 0 yards to the ALA36 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+9
72.6%
(08:03) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #1 A.Anderson caught at ALA28, for 9 yards to the ALA27, out of bounds at ALA27, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
72.0%
(07:29) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at ALA26, for 10 yards to the ALA17 (#10 J.Jefferson; #3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
71.9%
(06:59) Shotgun #8 J.Johnson rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA15 (#0 D.Lawson; #88 I.Faga)Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+1
71.6%
(06:21) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #8 J.Johnson caught at ALA18, for 1 yard to the ALA14 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+1
71.9%
(05:34) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier rush right for 1 yard gain to the ALA13 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
72.2%
(04:51) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 30 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 04:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:5373% → 73%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
72.7%
(04:49) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA39, for 33 yards to the LSU47 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.6%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #4 D.Hill thrown to LSU44Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
73.5%
(03:59) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #4 D.Hill thrown to ALA48Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
73.0%
(03:55) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to LSU45 QB hurried by #42 D.KeysSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
72.5%
(03:48) #38 B.Doud punt 40 yards to the LSU07 fair catch by #0 Z.Thomas at LSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1427% → 28%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
72.6%
(03:42) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU08 (#41 N.Hill-Green; #16 R.Morgan)Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+3
72.5%
(03:07) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU07, for 3 yards to the LSU11 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+13
72.0%
(02:27) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short middle to #10 B.Sharp caught at LSU11, for 13 yards to the LSU24 fumbled by #10 B.Sharp at LSU24 forced by #41 N.Hill-Green recovered by ALA #41 N.Hill-Green at LSU24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5074% → 72%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
73.9%
(02:20) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LSU26 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
73.8%
(01:36) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Miller thrown to LSU30Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
73.1%
(01:30) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #17 L.Brooks thrown to LSU00 QB hurried by #44 J.Pyburn and #0 T.CooleySimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+45
72.2%
(01:23) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird), clock 01:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:4427% → 31%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.9%
(01:20) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at LSU23, for 4 yards to the LSU29 (#12 Z.Mincey)Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
73.6%
(00:43) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush right for 8 yards gain (2) to the LSU37 (#12 Z.Mincey), out of bounds PENALTY LSU Holding (#56 J.Thompson) 10 yards from LSU31 to LSU21Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
74.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU17, for 12 yards to the LSU33 (#5 D.Lee Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
73.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 2 yards gain to the LSU35 (#12 Z.Mincey; #11 J.Renaud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
73.5%
(14:25) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush left for 37 yards gain to the ALA28 (#3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
71.4%
(13:45) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short left to #29 C.Durham caught at ALA34, for 1 yard to the ALA27 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
71.4%
(13:02) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Green thrown to ALA00 broken up by #5 D.Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+7
72.2%
(12:57) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short middle to #1 A.Anderson caught at ALA28, for 7 yards to the ALA20 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
69.3%
(12:30) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 12:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5272% → 78%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
(12:27) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the ALA27 (#42 D.Keys)Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
71.9%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #81 K.Edwards caught at ALA24, for 10 yards to the ALA37 (#4 M.Delane; #33 W.Weeks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.1%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 J.Cuevas rush left for 7 yards gain to the ALA44 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+32
72.9%
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete deep left to #80 J.Cuevas caught at LSU33, for 32 yards to the LSU24 (#42 D.Keys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
73.9%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU19 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
73.9%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #2 R.Williams thrown to LSU15 QB hurried by #96 D.McKinleySimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+15
73.2%
(09:38) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to LSU03 PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (#11 P.Woodland) 15 yards from LSU19 to LSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.8%
(09:24) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:25 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0723% → 21%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
77.4%
(09:20) Shotgun #0 Z.Thomas rush right for 0 yards to the LSU15 (#24 N.Carter)Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-3
77.7%
(08:37) #22 H.Berry rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LSU12 (#0 D.Lawson; #94 E.Hill)Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+1
78.6%
(07:53) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #1 A.Anderson caught at LSU13, for 1 yard to the LSU13 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
79.0%
(07:10) #90 G.Chadwick punt 47 yards to the ALA40 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:2978% → 79%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.8%
(07:03) Shotgun #28 K.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ALA45 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.; #42 D.Keys)Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+31
78.0%
(06:24) #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #5 G.Bernard caught at LSU36, for 31 yards to the LSU24 (#4 M.Delane), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.6%
(05:53) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #4 D.Hill thrown to LSU28 QB hurried by #44 J.Pyburn and #90 J.GuillorySimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
78.6%
(05:49) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #1 I.Horton caught at LSU29, for 5 yards to the LSU19 (#3 D.Pickett)Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
78.1%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #26 J.Miller caught at LSU18, for 7 yards to the LSU12 (#22 J.Rogers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
78.8%
(04:32) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #17 L.Brooks caught at LSU17, for 5 yards loss to the LSU17 (#33 W.Weeks)Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 15
OPP 17
-3
78.6%
(03:49) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #4 D.Hill caught at LSU20, for 3 yards loss to the LSU20 (#44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+11
78.7%
(03:17) Shotgun #5 G.Bernard pass complete short right to #17 L.Brooks caught at LSU25, for 11 yards to the LSU09 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
78.7%
(02:29) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird), clock 02:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2022% → 20%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.2%
(02:28) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU20, for 2 yards to the LSU22 (#18 B.Hubbard; #41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
78.5%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #29 C.Durham caught at LSU15, for 3 yards loss to the LSU19 (#41 N.Hill-Green)Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
79.5%
(01:13) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass incomplete short middle to #6 B.Brown thrown to LSU25 QB hurried by #23 J.SmithSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+12
79.9%
(01:07) #90 G.Chadwick punt 59 yards to the ALA22 #7 C.Adams return 12 yards to the ALA34 (#23 A.Anding)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3079% → 87%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.9%
(00:56) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short left to #17 L.Brooks thrown to ALA43Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+53
78.7%
(00:51) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete deep right to #17 L.Brooks caught at LSU19, for 53 yards to the LSU13 (#11 P.Woodland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
87.3%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU00, for 13 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.3%
(00:17) Kneel down by LSU at LSU24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FG
18 plays · 48 yds · 6:0615% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.5%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#77 O.Williams) 5 yards from LSU25 to LSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
85.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #10 B.Sharp caught at LSU22, for 5 yards to the LSU25 (#10 J.Jefferson)Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.0%
(14:13) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short left to #4 N.Anderson caught at LSU37, for 16 yards to the LSU41 (#2 Z.Brown; #7 D.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
85.0%
(13:33) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU46 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+20
84.7%
(12:55) #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ALA39, for 20 yards to the ALA34 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
83.9%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at ALA37, for 3 yards loss to the ALA37 (#10 J.Jefferson; #3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
85.4%
(11:44) #18 G.Nussmeier rush right for 0 yards to the ALA37 (#11 J.Renaud) PENALTY ALA Face Mask (#11 J.Renaud) 15 yards from ALA37 to ALA22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
83.9%
(11:23) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at ALA25, for 7 yards to the ALA15 (#7 D.Jones; #3 K.Sabb)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
84.0%
(10:46) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush right for 6 yards gain to the ALA09 (#10 J.Jefferson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
84.1%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA08 (#10 J.Jefferson; #0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.3%
(09:45) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier pass incomplete short middle to #6 B.Brown thrown to ALA00 broken up by #18 B.HubbardSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.1%
PENALTY LSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ALA08 to ALA13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-14
87.2%
(09:41) Shotgun #18 G.Nussmeier sacked for loss of 14 yards to the ALA27 (#42 Y.Pierre)Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+44
85.5%
(08:57) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 08:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:1786% → 86%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.6%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA21Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
85.6%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep right to #5 G.Bernard thrown to ALA38 PENALTY LSU Offside (#6 P.Payton) 5 yards from ALA18 to ALA23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
85.7%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #26 J.Miller caught at ALA24, for 0 yards to the ALA23 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+15
85.3%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #5 G.Bernard caught at ALA38, for 15 yards to the ALA38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
86.7%
(07:24) Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the ALA40 (#44 J.Pyburn; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
86.9%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #17 L.Brooks thrown to LSU10 broken up by #4 M.DelaneSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
86.0%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #5 G.Bernard thrown to LSU25Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
85.5%
(06:36) #38 B.Doud punt 43 yards to the LSU17, out of bounds at LSU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0414% → 11%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
86.0%
(06:26) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 A.Anderson caught at LSU15, for 1 yard loss to the LSU16 (#16 R.Morgan)Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+3
86.4%
(05:40) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the LSU19 (#0 D.Lawson)Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+17
87.6%
(04:59) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #0 Z.Thomas caught at LSU36, for 17 yards to the LSU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.3%
(04:19) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 K.Parker thrown to ALA47. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:19) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #12 K.Parker caught at ALA47, for 17 yards to the ALA47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
87.5%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #12 K.Parker thrown to LSU48 PENALTY LSU Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
89.3%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LSU45, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 11 yards gain to the LSU47 (#1 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
88.5%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#10 B.Sharp) 4 yards from LSU45 to LSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
89.2%
(03:15) #90 G.Chadwick punt 46 yards to the ALA13 fair catch by #7 C.Adams at ALA13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0588% → 91%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
88.4%
(03:10) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short middle to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA24, for 21 yards to the ALA34 (#0 T.Cooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
88.9%
(02:26) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #80 J.Cuevas caught at ALA31, for 1 yard to the ALA35 (#33 W.Weeks)Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
89.0%
(01:48) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #17 L.Brooks caught at ALA35, for 8 yards to the ALA43 (#3 D.Pickett)Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
89.3%
(01:00) #5 G.Bernard rush right for 3 yards gain to the ALA46 (#33 W.Weeks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
90.6%
(00:18) #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ALA47 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.; #0 T.Cooley)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-9
90.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ALA38 (#7 H.Perkins Jr.), fumble by #15 T.Simpson recovered by LSU #7 H.Perkins Jr. at ALA38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 18 yds · 4:1412% → 11%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
88.0%
(14:52) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the ALA34 (#16 R.Morgan), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+11
87.7%
(14:12) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at ALA20, for 11 yards to the ALA23 (#10 J.Jefferson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
87.8%
(13:44) Shotgun #29 C.Durham rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA21 (#94 E.Hill)Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
87.9%
(13:09) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #10 B.Sharp thrown to ALA20 QB hurried by #16 R.MorganSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
89.2%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#57 C.Curne) 5 yards from ALA21 to ALA26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+19
89.9%
(13:04) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 B.Brown caught at ALA08, for 19 yards to the ALA07 (#5 D.Lee Jr.; #3 K.Sabb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
88.4%
PENALTY LSU False Start (#57 C.Curne) 5 yards from ALA07 to ALA12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-10
88.7%
(12:03) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ALA22 (#22 L.Overton)Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
90.3%
(11:16) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Brown thrown to ALA26Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+2
91.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ALA20 (#23 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
89.1%
(10:28) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 10:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:3790% → 91%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.2%
(10:28) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 3 yards gain to the ALA28 (#6 P.Payton)Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
90.4%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the ALA45 (#11 P.Woodland), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Personal Foul (#90 J.Guillory) 15 yards from ALA45 to LSU40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
91.9%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 1 yard gain to the LSU39 (#33 W.Weeks; #44 J.Pyburn)Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
91.9%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep left to #1 I.Horton thrown to LSU14 broken up by #11 P.WoodlandSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
91.4%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete deep middle to #2 R.Williams thrown to LSU17 QB hurried by #7 H.Perkins Jr.Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
90.7%
(08:42) #38 B.Doud punt 37 yards to the LSU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:239% → 7%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
91.3%
(08:41) Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LSU03 (#18 B.Hubbard)Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
91.5%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 H.Berry rush middle for 0 yards to the LSU03 (#24 N.Carter)Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
92.2%
(07:22) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU09Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
92.6%
(07:22) #90 G.Chadwick punt 40 yards to the LSU43 #7 C.Adams return 20 yards to the LSU23 (#0 T.Cooley) PENALTY ALA Illegal Block in Back (#2 Z.Brown) 10 yards from LSU45 to ALA45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3693% → 95%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.2%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Miller rush right for 0 yards to the ALA45 (#11 P.Woodland)Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+21
93.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #1 I.Horton caught at LSU37, for 21 yards to the LSU34 (#11 P.Woodland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
95.1%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #75 W.Formby caught at LSU35, for 2 yards to the LSU32 (#90 J.Guillory)Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
95.7%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU36, for 6 yards to the LSU26 (#12 J.Butler; #16 A.Breaux)Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
95.4%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass incomplete short middle to #81 K.Edwards thrown to LSU13 broken up by #13 A.HaulcySimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
95.1%
(04:28) #31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird), clock 04:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
(04:25) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Green thrown to LSU31Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
(04:22) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 B.Brown caught at LSU30, for 6 yards to the LSU31 (#16 R.Morgan)Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.8%
(03:53) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU36 (#41 N.Hill-Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
96.5%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 10 yards to the LSU26 (#42 Y.Pierre), fumble by #11 M.Van Buren Jr. recovered by ALA #90 L.Simmons at LSU26, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 8 yds · 2:5497% → 98%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.0%
(03:11) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson rush left for 0 yards to the LSU26 (#12 J.Butler)Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
96.9%
(03:05) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush right for 1 yard gain to the LSU25 (#12 J.Butler; #88 B.Gooden)Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+6
96.9%
(02:15) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush left for 6 yards gain to the LSU19 (#90 J.Guillory; #7 H.Perkins Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+4
97.1%
(01:52) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at LSU15, for 4 yards to the LSU15 (#4 M.Delane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
97.5%
(01:22) Kneel down by #15 T.Simpson at LSU16 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-1
97.5%
(00:48) Kneel down by #15 T.Simpson at LSU17 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 12
OPP 17
-1
97.5%
(00:09) Kneel down by #15 T.Simpson at LSU18 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:22
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU00, for 13 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)
+8.6
FG · Q2 12:27
(12:30) #34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #90 G.Chadwick, LS: #43 S.Hall), clock 12:27
-4.9
TD · Q2 9:25
(09:24) Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:25 #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com