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VAN

Vanderbilt 31 at Texas 34

TEX
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: (02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #4 C.Baxter caught at VAN00, for 6 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:11 #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis) — TEX win probability +6.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:02: (07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:02 #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis) — TEX win probability +10.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: (00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX09, for 18 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris) — VAN win probability +15.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:12: (09:12) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN00, for 6 yards to the VAN00 QB hurried by #10 L.Patterson TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:12, 1ST DOWN #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis) — TEX win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:33: (00:38) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX00, for 8 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris) — VAN win probability +16.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:38TEX 4th & 15 at VAN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12VAN 4th & 11 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:22VAN 4th & 11 at TEX 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−6.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:54VAN 4th & 5 at TEX 25, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:27VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:37VAN 4th & 19 at TEX 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:06TEX 4th & 10 at VAN 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:04TEX 4th & 6 at VAN 33, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:04TEX 4th & 11 at VAN 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:53VAN 4th & 19 at VAN 2, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 14:49TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:02TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:12TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:05VAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:54VAN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:33VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
60.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #1 R.Wingo caught at TEX20, for 75 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:49, 1ST DOWN #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5540% → 39%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.4%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #6 T.Richardson caught at VAN23, for 6 yards to the VAN31 (#3 J.Guilbeau; #8 T.Moore)Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
60.6%
(14:10) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VAN33 (#1 C.Simmons; #93 H.Kanu)Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
60.8%
(13:29) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAN38 (#93 H.Kanu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
61.0%
(12:48) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 9 yards to the VAN29 (#1 C.Simmons), fumble by #2 D.Pavia recovered by TEX #1 C.Simmons at VAN29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4262% → 62%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
61.6%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #21 R.Niblett caught at VAN35, for 13 yards to the VAN16 (#7 M.Sewell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.8%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short right to #5 Q.Wisner thrown to VAN21Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
61.9%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short right to #3 E.Mosley V thrown to VAN14Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+5
61.7%
PENALTY TEX Delay Of Game 5 yards from VAN16 to VAN21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
61.6%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short middle to #3 E.Mosley V thrown to VAN13 QB hurried by #10 L.PattersonSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
61.5%
(11:37) #49 M.Shipley field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis), clock 11:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:1839% → 37%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
(11:36) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #6 T.Richardson thrown to TEX39Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.4%
(11:29) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 13 yards gain to the VAN38 (#4 J.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
61.4%
(10:34) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #28 S.Alexander caught at VAN36, for 33 yards to the TEX29 (#17 X.Filsaime) PENALTY VAN Illegal Forward Pass (#2 D.Pavia) 5 yards from VAN38 to VAN33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+18
62.1%
(09:50) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #22 M.Young caught at VAN31, for 18 yards to the TEX49 (#2 D.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
61.7%
(09:09) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEX43 (#4 J.McDonald)Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
61.9%
(08:25) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEX40 (#26 T.Smith)Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
62.1%
(07:41) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 0 yards to the TEX40 (#5 M.Muhammad), out of bounds PENALTY VAN Holding (#53 J.White) 10 yards from TEX40 to TEX50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 11
50
0
62.7%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Stowers thrown to TEX40 QB hurried by #1 C.SimmonsSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 11
50
+12
63.2%
(07:19) #38 N.Haberer punt 45 yards to the TEX05 #21 R.Niblett return 12 yards to the TEX17 (#27 J.Lackey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:5563% → 73%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
63.3%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #1 R.Wingo caught at TEX14, for 14 yards to the TEX31 (#17 M.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
63.6%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #3 E.Mosley V caught at TEX28, for 6 yards to the TEX37 (#24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+13
64.1%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 13 yards gain to the TEX50 (#11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
50
+2
65.1%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 2 yards gain to the VAN48 (#15 Z.Wood; #92 J.Stone)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
65.4%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #84 J.Washington caught at VAN45, for 5 yards to the VAN43 (#24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+14
65.5%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #0 D.Moore Jr. caught at VAN39, for 14 yards to the VAN29 (#2 R.Fontenette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.1%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #13 P.Livingstone caught at VAN30, for 11 yards to the VAN18 (#10 L.Patterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
66.3%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush left for 7 yards gain to the VAN11 (#22 B.Cowan; #7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
66.5%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAN06 (#10 L.Patterson; #99 J.Singh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
73.3%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #4 C.Baxter caught at VAN00, for 6 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:11 #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:3428% → 28%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
71.7%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at VAN28, for 17 yards to the VAN38 (#2 D.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
72.1%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX49, for 22 yards to the TEX40 (#3 J.Guilbeau; #4 J.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
71.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #28 S.Alexander thrown to TEX25 PENALTY TEX Offside (#92 C.Vasek) 5 yards from TEX40 to TEX35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+3
71.2%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEX32 (#1 C.Simmons)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-4
72.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 4 yards loss to the TEX36 (#0 A.Hill Jr.; #1 C.Simmons)Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+11
73.9%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill caught at TEX30, for 11 yards to the TEX25 (#3 J.Guilbeau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
73.5%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 1 yard loss to the TEX26 (#3 J.Guilbeau)Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+1
74.3%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #28 S.Alexander caught at TEX33, for 1 yard to the TEX25 (#14 B.Spence)Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-1
75.5%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 1 yard to the TEX26 (#8 T.Moore)Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
72.4%
(11:26) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris), clock 11:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1474% → 88%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
74.3%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #5 Q.Wisner caught at TEX26, for 3 yards to the TEX35 (#96 K.Sydnor) PENALTY VAN Offside 5 yards from TEX32 to TEX37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+8
75.1%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TEX45 (#1 D.Carter; #4 M.Hight), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
75.9%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEX49 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+17
76.1%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #5 Q.Wisner caught at TEX45, for 17 yards to the VAN34 (#2 R.Fontenette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
76.7%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAN33 (#24 N.Rinaldi; #7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
77.0%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAN28 (#94 B.Mann)Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+10
76.1%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN18, for 10 yards to the VAN18 (#3 K.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
76.8%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #17 D.McCutcheon caught at VAN19, for 14 yards to the VAN04 (#4 M.Hight), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.7%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:02 #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4314% → 24%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.6%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #6 T.Richardson caught at VAN30, for 15 yards to the VAN40 (#6 K.Black), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.5%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VAN42 (#97 A.January; #19 Z.Umeozulu)Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
86.2%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #22 M.Young caught at VAN39, for 6 yards to the VAN48 QB hurried by #8 T.Moore (#29 G.Littleton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
86.5%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #44 G.Fisher caught at TEX47, for 5 yards to the TEX47 (#8 T.Moore), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.4%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Richardson thrown to TEX36 QB hurried by #1 C.SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
87.7%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX44, for 17 yards to the TEX30 (#29 G.Littleton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
87.1%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEX28 (#1 C.Simmons)Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
87.5%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to TEX23 QB hurried by #5 M.MuhammadSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+3
88.6%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX25, for 3 yards to the TEX25 QB hurried by #93 H.Kanu (#29 G.Littleton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+7
88.5%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX21, for 7 yards to the TEX18 (#2 D.Williams Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
87.7%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TEX25 (#0 A.Hill Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 17
OPP 25
+7
89.2%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at TEX19, for 7 yards to the TEX18 (#2 D.Williams Jr.; #3 J.Guilbeau)Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
76.4%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX09, for 18 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 82%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
80.4%
(00:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN46, for 15 yards to the VAN46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
80.7%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to #13 P.Livingstone thrown to VAN00 PENALTY VAN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from VAN46 to VAN41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 5
OPP 41
0
82.4%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to #88 J.Endries thrown to VAN00 broken up by #7 M.SewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2420% → 18%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.3%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Richardson thrown to VAN37Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
80.6%
(14:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short middle to #9 E.Stowers thrown to VAN45Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
81.3%
PENALTY TEX Offside (#24 W.Roberson) 5 yards from VAN33 to VAN38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-2
80.1%
(14:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 2 yards to the VAN36 (#14 B.Spence) PENALTY VAN Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 14:27
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
81.6%
(14:39) #38 N.Haberer punt 57 yards to the TEX07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 5:0882% → 95%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
81.9%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEX11 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
82.2%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #88 J.Endries caught at TEX10, for 2 yards to the TEX13 (#10 L.Patterson; #17 M.Davis)Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+18
81.9%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #3 E.Mosley V caught at TEX24, for 18 yards to the TEX31 (#7 M.Sewell; #29 M.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
83.2%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 1 yard gain to the TEX32 (#10 L.Patterson; #53 G.Seabrooks III)Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
83.3%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #13 P.Livingstone caught at TEX38, for 10 yards to the TEX42 (#6 J.Matthews), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
84.5%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #0 D.Moore Jr. caught at VAN41, for 29 yards to the VAN29 (#2 R.Fontenette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
84.9%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush right for 1 yard gain to the VAN28 (#9 K.Koht; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
85.2%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to #13 P.Livingstone thrown to VAN05Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+17
84.7%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #88 J.Endries caught at VAN20, for 17 yards to the VAN11 (#7 M.Sewell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
86.1%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #88 J.Endries caught at VAN11, for 5 yards to the VAN06 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
94.8%
(09:12) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN00, for 6 yards to the VAN00 QB hurried by #10 L.Patterson TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:12, 1ST DOWN #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:296% → 5%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VAN29 (#18 L.Lefau)Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
94.1%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 8 yards gain to the VAN37 (#26 T.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.4%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAN38 (#18 L.Lefau) PENALTY TEX Face Mask (#18 L.Lefau) 15 yards from VAN38 to TEX47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
94.3%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 11 yards gain to the TEX36 (#17 X.Filsaime), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TEX Personal Foul (#17 X.Filsaime) 15 yards from TEX36 to TEX21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.7%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to TEX00Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
93.9%
(07:09) PENALTY VAN False Start (#55 B.Henderson) 5 yards from TEX21 to TEX26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+7
94.1%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX23, for 7 yards to the TEX19 (#0 A.Hill Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-11
94.7%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TEX30 (#91 E.Burke)Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+48
95.3%
(05:37) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris), clock 05:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:2796% → 98%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.5%
(05:33) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Moore Jr. thrown to TEX30Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
95.5%
(05:31) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #3 E.Mosley V caught at TEX34, for 4 yards to the TEX34 QB hurried by #99 J.Singh (#3 K.Taylor)Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
95.8%
(04:48) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to #3 E.Mosley V thrown to VAN44 PENALTY VAN Pass Interference (#4 M.Hight) 15 yards from TEX34 to TEX49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.0%
(04:45) Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 3 yards gain to the VAN48 (#95 L.Zunk)Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+13
95.4%
(04:05) Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 13 yards gain to the VAN35 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
96.7%
(03:23) Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 2 yards loss to the VAN37 (#11 B.Longwell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+11
97.0%
(02:43) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at VAN33, for 11 yards to the VAN26 (#92 J.Stone)Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
97.5%
(02:07) Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 7 yards gain to the VAN19 (#27 J.Lackey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
97.7%
(01:38) Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 5 yards gain to the VAN14 (#4 M.Hight), out of bounds PENALTY TEX Holding (#83 S.Shannon) 10 yards from VAN19 to VAN29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
97.7%
(01:29) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short right to #17 D.McCutcheon thrown to VAN31Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+4
97.7%
(01:24) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #17 D.McCutcheon caught at VAN35, for 4 yards to the VAN25 (#8 C.Heard), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+6
97.8%
(00:45) Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #21 R.Niblett caught at VAN26, for 6 yards to the VAN19 (#24 N.Rinaldi), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
97.9%
(00:06) #49 M.Shipley field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis), clock 00:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:472% → 5%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
98.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 12 yards gain to the VAN35 (#40 L.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.0%
(14:36) PENALTY TEX Delay Of Game (#1 C.Simmons) 5 yards from VAN35 to VAN40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-5
98.2%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #50 C.Mitchell caught at VAN35, for 5 yards loss to the VAN35 (#97 A.January)Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.3%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #23 A.Newberry caught at VAN32, for 6 yards to the VAN41 (#18 L.Lefau), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+23
98.4%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #16 C.Spence caught at TEX47, for 23 yards to the TEX36 (#2 D.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
98.4%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 3 yards loss to the TEX39 (#91 E.Burke)Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+8
98.5%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TEX31 (#93 H.Kanu; #18 L.Lefau)Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
98.5%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX26, for 6 yards to the TEX25 (#17 X.Filsaime), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.5%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 25 yards gain to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY VAN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TEX Personal Foul offsetting #2 D.Pavia pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:5097% → 98%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.2%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 0 yards to the TEX35 (#10 L.Patterson; #11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.3%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TEX40 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
97.5%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #0 D.Moore Jr. caught at TEX45, for 6 yards to the TEX46 (#2 R.Fontenette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
97.7%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 3 yards gain to the TEX49 (#53 G.Seabrooks III; #96 K.Sydnor)Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
97.9%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the VAN47 (#3 K.Taylor)Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
98.2%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN45, for 10 yards to the VAN37 (#8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
98.3%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VAN34 (#7 M.Sewell; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
98.5%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAN33 (#2 R.Fontenette; #15 Z.Wood)Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
98.5%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete deep right to #3 E.Mosley V thrown to VAN00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete deep right to #3 E.Mosley V caught at VAN00, for 33 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:09, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
98.3%
(04:04) #49 M.Shipley field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis), clock 04:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
91.6%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete deep right to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX30, for 67 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:54, 1ST DOWN #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELD #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 0:4493% → 95%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
50
0
93.1%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush middle for 0 yards to the TEX50 (#11 B.Longwell; #24 N.Rinaldi) PENALTY VAN Face Mask (#24 N.Rinaldi) 15 yards from TEX50 to VAN35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
94.3%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush left for 7 yards gain to the VAN28 (#27 J.Lackey)Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
95.2%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAN27 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+5
94.9%
PENALTY TEX False Start (#73 B.Baker) 5 yards from VAN27 to VAN32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+1
95.1%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Baxter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAN31 (#11 B.Longwell; #96 K.Sydnor)Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+5
94.4%
PENALTY TEX False Start 5 yards from VAN31 to VAN36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
94.5%
(03:04) #19 J.Bouwmeester punt 25 yards to the VAN11 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at VAN11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 2:233% → 21%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
97.0%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #9 E.Stowers thrown to TEX45 broken up by #11 K.Phillips QB hurried by #8 T.MooreSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
97.0%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #9 E.Stowers thrown to VAN16Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-9
97.2%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 9 yards to the VAN02 (#91 E.Burke)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 19
OWN 2
+21
97.2%
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at VAN17, for 21 yards to the VAN23 (#2 D.Williams Jr.; #5 M.Muhammad), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
96.8%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at VAN41, for 27 yards to the VAN50 (#2 D.Williams Jr.; #11 K.Phillips), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
50
+16
96.3%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX46, for 16 yards to the TEX34 (#9 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.4%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Stowers thrown to TEX29 QB hurried by #14 B.SpenceSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
95.4%
(01:24) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #28 S.Alexander thrown to TEX32 broken up by #8 T.MooreSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+14
96.1%
(01:20) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX24, for 14 yards to the TEX20 (#0 A.Hill Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
95.2%
(01:11) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX06, for 15 yards to the TEX05 (#2 D.Williams Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+10
95.2%
(00:58) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to TEX00 QB hurried by #8 T.Moore PENALTY VAN Holding (#55 B.Henderson) 10 yards from TEX05 to TEX15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
95.6%
(00:57) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #22 M.Young caught at TEX14, for 7 yards to the TEX08 (#5 M.Muhammad)Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.2%
(00:38) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX00, for 8 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
94.3%
(00:00) Kneel down by Texas at TEX46 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:33
(00:38) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX00, for 8 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
-16.4
TD · Q2 0:11
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX09, for 18 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
-15.1
TD · Q2 7:02
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:02 #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com