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South Carolina 14 at Ole Miss 30

MISS
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:14 · (11:14) #24 M.Love punt 42 yards to the OM16 muffed by #2 H.Wallace III at OM16 recovered by SC #44 M.Brown II at OM16, End Of Play
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+26.6Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: (01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #8 D.Wright caught at SC02, for 8 yards to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28 #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short) — MISS win probability +2.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:56: (06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 15 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:56, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short) — MISS win probability +3.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:30: (11:34) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep middle to #8 N.Harbor caught at OM00, for 47 yards to the OM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #45 W.Joyce kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #46 C.Rasmussen) — SC win probability +13.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 5:46: (05:42) #17 L.Carneiro field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short), clock 05:46 — MISS win probability +3.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:44: (05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 54 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:44, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short) — MISS win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:56MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, tied
    Close callWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06MISS 4th & 5 at SC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14SC 4th & 4 at SC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:13MISS 4th & 1 at SC 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58MISS 4th & 4 at SC 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:03SC 4th & 1 at MISS 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:07SC 4th & 18 at SC 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:56MISS 4th & 3 at SC 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:22SC 4th & 9 at MISS 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:21SC 4th & 1 at SC 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56MISS 4th & 16 at SC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:46MISS 4th & 7 at SC 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:28SC 4th & 8 at SC 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:06MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 30, up 6
    Close callPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53SC 4th & 21 at SC 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−4.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:54MISS 4th & 6 at SC 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−8.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:56SC 4th & 17 at MISS 40, down 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:10SC 4th & 2 at SC 35, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:13SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:56MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:30SC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:44MISS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4178% → 78%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
(14:56) Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #5 K.Lacy caught at OM19, for 0 yards to the OM25 (#46 B.Thomas Jr.; #0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Stribling thrown to OM28Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short right to #19 C.Lee thrown to OM44Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
77.9%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 O.Bird rush right for 18 yards gain to the OM43 (#27 D.Darden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
78.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 16 yards gain to the SC41 (#1 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.0%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short right to #17 W.Watkins thrown to SC22Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
78.0%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush left for 4 yards gain to the SC37 (#46 B.Thomas Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+1
77.9%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SC36 (#0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
77.7%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short left to #17 W.Watkins thrown to SC26 broken up by #24 J.Kilgore, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4423% → 23%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.4%
(12:02) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep middle to #8 N.Harbor thrown to OM14 QB hurried by #51 Z.HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
77.4%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #28 M.Fuller caught at SC31, for 6 yards to the SC42 (#2 J.Braxton)Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
77.1%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #87 B.Hunt thrown to SC46Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+42
77.3%
(11:14) #24 M.Love punt 42 yards to the OM16 muffed by #2 H.Wallace III at OM16 recovered by SC #44 M.Brown II at OM16, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:4023% → 25%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
76.8%
(10:56) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 8 yards gain to the OM08 (#4 S.Perkins; #51 Z.Harris)Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+5
76.6%
(10:30) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #1 R.Faison caught at OM10, for 5 yards to the OM03 (#16 W.Williams Jr.; #30 J.Yates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.4%
(09:51) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OM01 (#16 W.Williams Jr.; #30 J.Yates)Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.7%
(09:16) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:13 #45 W.Joyce kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #46 C.Rasmussen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:5675% → 74%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
75.3%
(08:58) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush left for 7 yards gain to the SC48 (#1 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-1
75.3%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SC49 (#17 J.Okoronkwo)Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
74.9%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SC46 (#93 N.Barrett; #99 G.Brownlow-Dindy)Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+21
74.3%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Alexander rush right for 21 yards gain to the SC25 (#30 D.Clowney), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
74.6%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush right for 2 yards gain to the SC23 (#1 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
74.4%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #11 D.Alexander caught at SC14, for 9 yards to the SC14 (#8 J.Collier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
74.2%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #1 D.Stribling caught at SC14, for 13 yards to the SC01 (#1 D.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
74.1%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SC02 (#99 G.Brownlow-Dindy) PENALTY OM Illegal Formation 5 yards from SC01 to SC06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
73.8%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush right for 2 yards gain to the SC04 (#1 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
73.5%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short right to #85 T.Bruckler thrown to SC00 broken up by #4 V.Swain QB hurried by #30 D.ClowneySimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.6%
(04:02) Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Wright thrown to SC00 broken up by #15 B.CisseSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
74.1%
(03:56) #17 L.Carneiro field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short), clock 03:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3627% → 28%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
73.4%
(03:54) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #5 J.Dingle caught at SC34, for 20 yards to the SC45 (#14 K.Gushiken), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.5%
(03:20) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #28 M.Fuller caught at SC44, for 5 yards to the SC50 (#44 A.Jones)Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 5
50
0
72.2%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep middle to #4 V.Jacobs thrown to OM20Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 5
50
+4
72.2%
(02:48) Shotgun #27 O.Adaway III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OM46 (#52 W.Echoles)Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-3
72.2%
(02:05) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 3 yards loss to the OM49 (#44 A.Jones), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:1874% → 77%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+43
73.7%
(01:56) Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Alexander caught at SC16, for 43 yards to the SC08 (#4 V.Swain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.6%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #8 D.Wright caught at SC02, for 8 yards to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28 #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 4:1125% → 25%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.4%
(01:24) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush right for 2 yards gain to the SC27 (#3 S.Ryan)Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
75.2%
(00:41) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #5 J.Dingle caught at SC29, for 5 yards to the SC32 (#32 C.Graves Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
75.2%
Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 3 yards gain to the SC35 (#4 S.Perkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
74.6%
(14:56) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #18 B.Rowe Jr. caught at SC30, for 9 yards to the SC44 (#7 T.Banks)Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
73.5%
(14:20) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush left for 6 yards gain to the SC50 (#51 Z.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
50
0
73.3%
(13:40) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #4 V.Jacobs thrown to OM25 QB hurried by #5 K.FranklinSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
50
+1
73.5%
(13:35) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OM49 (#5 K.Franklin)Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-9
73.6%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SC42 (#1 P.Umanmielen)Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
75.1%
(12:13) #24 M.Love punt 47 yards to the OM11 fair catch by #2 H.Wallace III at OM11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 5:0575% → 80%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
74.6%
(12:06) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OM18 (#7 S.Murphy)Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+6
74.6%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OM24 (#33 T.Pikes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
74.4%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OM30 (#17 J.Okoronkwo; #9 D.Umeozulu)Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+29
74.8%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 29 yards gain to the SC41 (#1 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
76.0%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SC37 (#9 D.Umeozulu)Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
75.9%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SC35 (#44 M.Goodwine)Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
75.4%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Diggs rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SC34 (#44 M.Goodwine)Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+20
75.0%
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #2 H.Wallace III caught at SC15, for 20 yards to the SC14 (#3 M.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
76.4%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush left for 1 yard loss to the SC15 (#17 J.Okoronkwo)Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
80.2%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 15 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:56, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:2321% → 20%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.4%
(06:52) Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 1 yard gain to the SC26 (#32 C.Graves Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
79.5%
(06:15) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #8 N.Harbor thrown to OM40 QB hurried by #30 J.Yates PENALTY OM Pass Interference (#16 W.Williams Jr.) 15 yards from SC26 to SC41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
78.5%
(06:06) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #3 M.Bennett Jr. caught at SC35, for 4 yards to the SC45 (#2 J.Braxton; #16 W.Williams Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
78.2%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OM47 (#1 P.Umanmielen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
77.8%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #4 V.Jacobs thrown to OM03Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
78.2%
(04:57) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 1 yard loss to the OM48 (#6 T.Dottery; #5 K.Franklin)Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+7
79.1%
(04:14) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #1 R.Faison caught at OM48, for 7 yards to the OM41 (#13 C.Beavers), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+5
79.0%
PENALTY SC Delay Of Game 5 yards from OM41 to OM46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
79.7%
(03:24) #24 M.Love punt 46 yards to the OM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2780% → 82%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
79.7%
(03:17) Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short right to #5 K.Lacy caught at OM14, for 9 yards to the OM29 (#99 G.Brownlow-Dindy)Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
80.5%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush left for 5 yards gain to the OM34 (#24 J.Kilgore; #31 P.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
80.3%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OM41 (#6 D.Stewart)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+6
81.2%
(01:55) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OM47 (#12 J.Geer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
81.7%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass intercepted by #24 J.Kilgore at SC17 #24 J.Kilgore return 1 yard to the SC18, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5819% → 19%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
80.6%
(01:24) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SC21 (#26 T.Chambers; #5 K.Franklin)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
81.0%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #1 R.Faison caught at SC22, for 6 yards to the SC27 (#6 T.Dottery)Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
80.6%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #18 B.Rowe Jr. thrown to SC41 PENALTY SC Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
81.2%
(00:27) #24 M.Love punt 50 yards to the OM23 fair catch by #2 H.Wallace III at OM23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0581% → 81%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
80.8%
(00:20) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OM28 (#93 N.Barrett)Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
81.1%
(00:12) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush left for 10 yards gain to the OM38 (#24 J.Kilgore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2119% → 31%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
(14:55) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SC28 (#5 K.Franklin; #51 Z.Harris)Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
81.0%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 4 yards gain to the SC32 (#6 T.Dottery), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.5%
PENALTY SC False Start (#51 T.Babalade) 5 yards from SC32 to SC27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
83.1%
(13:32) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep right to #18 B.Rowe Jr. caught at SC47, for 20 yards to the SC47, End Of Play PENALTY SC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#5 J.Dingle) 5 yards from SC27 to SC22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
83.4%
(13:09) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass intercepted by #14 K.Gushiken at OM25, End Of Play PENALTY OM Pass Interference (#9 R.Fletcher) 15 yards from SC22 to SC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
82.0%
(13:02) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush left for 4 yards gain to the SC41 (#44 A.Jones)Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
81.5%
(12:22) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush left for 12 yards gain to the OM47 fumbled by #1 R.Faison at OM48 forced by #32 C.Graves Jr. recovered by SC #1 R.Faison at OM47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
69.5%
(11:34) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep middle to #8 N.Harbor caught at OM00, for 47 yards to the OM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #45 W.Joyce kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #46 C.Rasmussen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:0474% → 73%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
73.7%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short right to #5 K.Lacy caught at OM30, for 2 yards loss to the OM31 (#0 F.Johnson)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+17
73.0%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short right to #1 D.Stribling caught at OM45, for 17 yards to the OM48 (#7 S.Murphy; #15 B.Cisse), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.4%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OM50 (#44 M.Goodwine). #75 P.Kutas injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
50
+1
76.0%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SC49 (#7 S.Murphy; #31 P.Williams)Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
75.3%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #2 H.Wallace III caught at SC45, for 8 yards to the SC41 (#4 V.Swain), 1ST DOWN. SC is challenging the ruling on the field - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
76.3%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Wallace III rush right for 6 yards loss to the SC47 (#6 D.Stewart)Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 16
OPP 47
0
74.9%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short left to #2 H.Wallace III thrown to SC28 QB hurried by #99 G.Brownlow-DindySimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
73.6%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass incomplete short right to #19 C.Lee thrown to SC30Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+34
72.5%
(07:57) #33 O.Bird punt 34 yards to the SC13 muffed by #24 J.Kilgore at SC13 recovered by OM #24 A.Jaffe at SC13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0177% → 80%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
77.3%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 0 yards to the SC13 (#46 B.Thomas Jr.; #7 S.Murphy)Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
77.3%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SC12 (#93 N.Barrett)Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+2
76.0%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SC10 (#17 J.Okoronkwo)Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
79.9%
(05:42) #17 L.Carneiro field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short), clock 05:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5521% → 20%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.7%
(05:38) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #8 N.Harbor caught at SC36, for 11 yards to the SC36 (#13 C.Beavers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.2%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Fuller rush left for 5 yards gain to the SC41 (#7 T.Banks). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down prior to losing the ball". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-3
76.5%
(04:24) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 3 yards loss to the SC38 fumbled by #16 L.Sellers at SC38 recovered by SC #28 M.Fuller at SC38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
78.6%
(03:39) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #1 R.Faison thrown to OM40 QB hurried by #44 A.JonesSimilar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+6
80.3%
(03:32) #24 M.Love punt 45 yards to the OM17 #2 H.Wallace III return 6 yards to the OM23 (#12 E.Rice)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1380% → 80%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
79.8%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OM25 (#0 F.Johnson; #12 J.Geer)Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
81.1%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OM29 (#44 M.Goodwine)Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+1
80.7%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OM30 (#17 J.Okoronkwo) PENALTY OM Personal Foul offsetting SC Personal Foul offsettingSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
79.9%
(02:10) #33 O.Bird punt 42 yards to the SC28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5921% → 19%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
78.9%
(01:55) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SC19 (#52 W.Echoles, #96 J.Brown)Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+11
79.6%
(01:17) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short left to #8 N.Harbor caught at SC27, for 11 yards to the SC30 (#32 C.Graves Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-13
80.0%
(00:34) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 13 yards to the SC17 (#4 S.Perkins)Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
81.3%
(14:54) #24 M.Love punt 37 yards to the OM46, out of bounds at OM46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:4585% → 87%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
84.7%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #8 D.Wright caught at OM49, for 24 yards to the SC30 (#0 F.Johnson), 1ST DOWN. #4 V.Swain injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
85.6%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short middle to #19 C.Lee caught at SC20, for 10 yards to the SC20 (#1 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
85.7%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush right for 3 yards gain to the SC17 (#17 J.Okoronkwo), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
85.7%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SC14 (#99 G.Brownlow-Dindy)Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-2
84.7%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush right for 2 yards loss to the SC16 (#1 D.Smith)Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
87.2%
(11:56) #17 L.Carneiro field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short), clock 11:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 27 yds · 5:5213% → 7%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
87.2%
PENALTY SC False Start (#78 T.Baugh) 5 yards from SC27 to SC22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+11
87.8%
(11:42) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #18 B.Rowe Jr. caught at SC30, for 11 yards to the SC33 (#44 A.Jones; #96 J.Brown)Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+8
86.1%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SC41 (#1 P.Umanmielen; #3 S.Ryan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.8%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SC45 (#1 P.Umanmielen). #1 P.Umanmielen injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
87.1%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush right for 4 yards gain to the SC49 (#5 K.Franklin; #52 W.Echoles)Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
87.0%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OM47 (#52 W.Echoles; #4 S.Perkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
86.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 4 yards to the SC49 (#5 K.Franklin)Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+11
89.0%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #18 B.Rowe Jr. caught at OM47, for 11 yards to the OM40 (#2 J.Braxton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
86.9%
(07:59) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush right for 7 yards gain to the OM33 (#2 J.Braxton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
86.9%
(07:23) Shotgun #1 R.Faison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OM30 (#52 W.Echoles)Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-5
86.6%
(06:47) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 10 yards to the OM40 (#4 S.Perkins, #6 T.Dottery)Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
92.1%
(06:02) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep middle to #18 B.Rowe Jr. thrown to OM20 broken up by #7 T.BanksSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
92.7%
(05:57) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers sacked for loss of 6 yards to the OM46 (#15 D.Womack), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
97.8%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 54 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:44, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:144% → 3%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
(05:40) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #18 B.Rowe Jr. thrown to SC31Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
(05:39) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #18 B.Rowe Jr. thrown to SC45 QB hurried by #15 D.Womack and #4 S.PerkinsSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-15
96.7%
(05:27) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass intercepted by #4 S.Perkins at OM42, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 0 yds · 3:2498% → 99%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.9%
PENALTY OM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from OM42 to OM27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush right for 17 yards gain (4) to the OM44 (#14 J.Willis; #1 D.Smith) PENALTY OM Holding (#50 J.Williams) 10 yards from OM31 to OM21Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 16
OWN 21
+3
98.0%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 3 yards gain to the OM24 (#4 V.Swain)Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+15
98.0%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 15 yards gain to the OM39 (#14 J.Willis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.4%
(03:20) Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OM42 (#9 D.Umeozulu)Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
99.1%
(02:40) Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 0 yards to the OM42 (#99 G.Brownlow-Dindy)Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-5
99.2%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 5 yards loss to the OM37 (#12 J.Geer)Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
99.2%
(01:55) #33 O.Bird punt 36 yards to the SC27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:552% → 3%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.9%
(01:50) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete deep right to #4 V.Jacobs thrown to SC47Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
98.0%
(01:39) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short right to #27 O.Adaway III caught at SC33, for 8 yards to the SC35 (#16 W.Williams Jr.; #4 S.Perkins)Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
97.9%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass incomplete short right to #27 O.Adaway III thrown to SC41 QB hurried by #15 D.Womack and #44 A.JonesSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+14
97.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete short middle to #18 B.Rowe Jr. caught at SC43, for 14 yards to the SC49 (#14 K.Gushiken), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
97.9%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Sellers rush middle for 11 yards gain to the OM40 (#16 W.Williams Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.4%
(00:57) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass intercepted by #16 W.Williams Jr. at OM00 QB hurried by #1 P.Umanmielen, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.3%
(00:43) Kneel down by #6 T.Chambliss at OM19 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
99.3%
(00:16) Kneel down by #6 T.Chambliss at OM18 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:30
(11:34) Shotgun #16 L.Sellers pass complete deep middle to #8 N.Harbor caught at OM00, for 47 yards to the OM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #45 W.Joyce kick attempt good (H: #24 M.Love, LS: #46 C.Rasmussen)
-13.7
TD · Q4 5:44
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 54 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:44, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)
+5.1
TD · Q2 6:56
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss rush left for 15 yards gain to the SC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:56, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com