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UK

Kentucky 10 at Auburn 3

AUB
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:12 · (10:21) #14 H.Kaak punt 55 yards to the UKY29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:27: (09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at AUB15, for 13 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin) — UK win probability +15.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:27: Timeout Auburn, clock 02:27 — AUB win probability +14.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23: (02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB45 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.) — UK win probability +16.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23: Timeout Auburn, clock 02:23 — AUB win probability +16.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:19: (02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to AUB25 — UK win probability +16.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:11AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55UK 4th & 2 at UK 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47UK 4th & 6 at UK 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:40UK 4th & 7 at AUB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:12AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:51UK 4th & 11 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:46AUB 4th & 6 at UK 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:42AUB 4th & 6 at UK 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:12AUB 4th & 14 at UK 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:56UK 4th & 7 at AUB 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:59AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:27UK 4th & 18 at UK 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:52AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 10, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:12UK 4th & 4 at AUB 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:01AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:13AUB 4th & 20 at UK 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 9:27UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3680% → 79%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
79.5%
(14:54) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB17, for 6 yards to the AUB21 (#21 N.Addison)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
79.4%
(14:24) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AUB26 (#92 K.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
79.2%
(13:44) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB27 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-1
79.0%
(13:07) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AUB26 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
78.8%
(12:30) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Coleman thrown to AUB40 QB hurried by #3 A.Afari Jr. and #2 S.GreeneSimilar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+11
78.7%
(12:22) #14 H.Kaak punt 47 yards to the UKY27 #1 K.Law return 11 yards to the UKY38 (#32 C.Carlson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0621% → 22%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
78.7%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 3 yards gain to the UKY41 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
78.4%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #1 K.Law caught at UKY38, for 1 yard to the UKY42 (#8 K.Harris; #23 J.Crawford)Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
78.2%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 4 yards gain to the UKY46 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
78.1%
(10:03) #48 A.Laros punt 52 yards to the AUB02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:5778% → 76%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
78.2%
(09:53) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB05 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-1
78.0%
(09:18) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AUB04 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+8
77.3%
(08:34) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #87 B.Frazier caught at AUB08, for 8 yards to the AUB12 (#25 J.Lovett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
77.5%
(07:54) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB15, for 5 yards to the AUB17 (#21 N.Addison)Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
77.4%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 3 yards gain to the AUB20 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+6
77.0%
(06:55) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 6 yards gain to the AUB26 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace; #12 Q.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.1%
(06:16) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #3 P.Thompson thrown to AUB35 QB hurried by #76 A.RamseySimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
77.0%
(06:10) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB28 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+6
76.5%
(05:33) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush left for 6 yards gain to the AUB34 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
76.4%
(04:55) #14 H.Kaak punt 49 yards to the UKY17 fair catch by #1 K.Law at UKY17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5823% → 24%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
76.6%
(04:50) Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 0 yards to the UKY17 (#15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
76.4%
(04:11) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Miller thrown to AUB50 broken up by #28 K.Louidor-FaustinSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+18
76.7%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #1 K.Law caught at UKY30, for 18 yards to the UKY35 (#8 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.9%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UKY39 (#15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
75.3%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to AUB33Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
75.7%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to UKY48 QB hurried by #24 K.CrawfordSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
76.2%
(02:52) #48 A.Laros punt 49 yards to the AUB12 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5076% → 75%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
76.0%
(02:44) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB15 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+14
75.9%
(02:08) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB19, for 14 yards to the AUB29 (#21 N.Addison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
76.0%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB32 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
75.9%
(01:07) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Coleman thrown to AUB35 broken up by #3 A.Afari Jr.Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
75.4%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY48 QB hurried by #3 A.Afari Jr.Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
74.9%
(00:55) #14 H.Kaak punt 42 yards to the UKY26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0225% → 29%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
74.9%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UKY32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+12
74.2%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush right for 12 yards gain to the UKY44 (#92 J.Hardy; #19 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
73.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Law rush left for 10 yards gain to the AUB46 (#25 E.Winters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
73.0%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush right for 5 yards loss to the UKY49 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+18
73.7%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush right for 18 yards gain to the AUB33 (#5 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
72.1%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB32 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
71.9%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #84 J.Kattus thrown to AUB25Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
72.4%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB30 (#15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
71.5%
(11:41) #91 J.Kauwe field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #59 D.Laganga), clock 11:40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2072% → 70%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.0%
(11:38) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 5 yards to the AUB20 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-4
71.6%
(11:05) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 4 yards to the AUB16 (#76 A.Ramsey)Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
70.6%
(10:25) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #23 J.Cobb thrown to AUB22Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
70.2%
(10:21) #14 H.Kaak punt 55 yards to the UKY29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 5:1329% → 32%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
70.7%
(10:10) Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UKY30 (#15 K.Faulk; #28 K.Louidor-Faustin)Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
70.1%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UKY35, for 8 yards to the UKY38 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
68.9%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UKY39 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
67.4%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 1 yard gain to the UKY40 (#28 K.Louidor-Faustin), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+11
67.3%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #84 J.Kattus caught at UKY44, for 11 yards to the AUB49 (#24 K.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
66.1%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #7 D.Miller thrown to AUB40Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.1%
(06:33) PENALTY UKY False Start (#50 A.Wollschlaeger) 5 yards from AUB49 to UKY46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
67.2%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #3 S.McGowan caught at UKY42, for 1 yard to the UKY47 (#17 X.Atkins), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+3
67.4%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #7 D.Miller caught at AUB50, for 3 yards to the UKY50 (#14 R.Pleasant)Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 11
50
0
67.8%
(04:57) #48 A.Laros punt 38 yards to the AUB12 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:0167% → 68%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
67.3%
(04:49) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 8 yards gain to the AUB20 (#7 D.Rayner; #14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
67.5%
(04:27) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AUB26 (#60 D.Gusta; #92 K.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.3%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at AUB29, for 3 yards to the AUB29, out of bounds at AUB29Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+26
67.1%
(03:34) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush left for 26 yards gain to the UKY45, out of bounds at UKY45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
69.2%
(02:59) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UKY46 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+5
68.6%
(02:25) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 5 yards gain to the UKY41 (#14 T.Bryant), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
68.3%
(01:58) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY30Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
66.6%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to #15 P.Howard thrown to UKY00 broken up by #7 D.Rayner PENALTY UKY Holding offsetting AUB Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-5
67.7%
(01:44) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 10 yards to the AUB49 (#92 K.Saunders, #35 S.Soles Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3838% → 38%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
62.3%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB45 (#24 K.Crawford) PENALTY AUB Offside (#15 K.Faulk) 5 yards from AUB49 to AUB44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+5
61.3%
(01:23) PENALTY UKY False Start (#50 A.Wollschlaeger) 5 yards from AUB44 to AUB49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.7%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #3 S.McGowan thrown to AUB48 broken up by #97 B.Jamison-TravisSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-27
61.7%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #9 E.Melendez at AUB38 #9 E.Melendez return 27 yards to the UKY35 (#62 J.Burton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:5070% → 73%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
70.4%
(00:57) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 11 yards gain to the UKY24 (#25 J.Lovett; #6 J.Hardaway), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
70.5%
(00:39) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 9 yards gain to the UKY15 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
68.6%
(00:37) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 0 yards to the UKY15 (#25 J.Lovett; #2 S.Greene)Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
66.7%
(00:17) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 P.Thompson caught at UKY09, for 6 yards to the UKY09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.2%
(00:15) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Coleman thrown to UKY05 broken up by #2 S.Greene QB hurried by #92 K.SaundersSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.2%
(00:07) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY02Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
72.5%
(00:01) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 00:02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
66.0%
(00:00) Kneel down by #8 C.Boley at UKY33 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1933% → 55%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #22 C.Miller caught at UKY20, for 6 yards to the UKY31 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.; #6 D.Riddick)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
65.8%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UKY39 (#9 E.Melendez; #17 X.Atkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
65.0%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 1 yard loss to the UKY38 (#15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
65.6%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #3 S.McGowan caught at UKY34, for 0 yards to the UKY38 (#14 R.Pleasant)Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+13
66.5%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #13 F.Farrier II caught at AUB49, for 13 yards to the AUB49 (#17 X.Atkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
63.0%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #1 K.Law caught at UKY50, for 1 yard loss to the AUB50 (#14 R.Pleasant; #24 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 11
50
0
63.8%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 0 yards to the UKY50 (#19 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 11
50
+32
64.4%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #13 F.Farrier II caught at AUB34, for 32 yards to the AUB18 (#5 J.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
60.6%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush left for 5 yards gain to the AUB13 (#5 J.Robinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
44.9%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at AUB15, for 13 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 6:0950% → 43%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
50.0%
(09:21) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 15 yards gain (3) to the AUB24 (#14 T.Bryant) PENALTY AUB Holding (#3 P.Thompson) 6 yards from AUB12 to AUB06. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:21) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 15 yards gain to the AUB24 (#14 T.Bryant), out of bounds PENALTY AUB Holding offsetting UKY Targeting offsetting. NO PLAY)Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 13
OWN 6
+4
49.6%
(08:55) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 4 yards gain to the AUB10 (#6 J.Hardaway; #9 L.Watson)Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+8
49.4%
(08:29) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #87 B.Frazier caught at AUB14, for 8 yards to the AUB18 (#25 J.Lovett). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:29) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #87 B.Frazier caught at AUB14, for 9 yards to the AUB19 (#25 J.Lovett), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+12
48.1%
(08:00) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 12 yards gain to the AUB30 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
49.2%
(07:28) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 1 yard gain to the AUB31 (#12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
48.7%
PENALTY AUB False Start (#1 E.Singleton Jr.) 5 yards from AUB31 to AUB26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+15
47.5%
(06:37) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 15 yards gain to the AUB41 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
50.4%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at AUB49, for 9 yards to the AUB50 (#21 N.Addison), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 1
50
+6
51.8%
(05:43) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UKY44 (#14 T.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
51.6%
(05:09) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UKY45 (#25 J.Lovett)Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
49.6%
(04:25) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UKY41 (#12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-7
49.5%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UKY48 (#92 K.Saunders)Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
43.0%
(03:16) #14 H.Kaak punt 39 yards to the UKY09 fair catch by #1 K.Law at UKY09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:1059% → 70%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
40.8%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UKY11 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+12
40.1%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #22 C.Miller caught at UKY20, for 12 yards to the UKY23 (#4 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
38.9%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UKY25 (#24 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
38.0%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UKY26 (#19 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+7
38.8%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UKY33, for 7 yards to the UKY33 (#23 J.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
36.0%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UKY40 (#8 K.Harris; #92 J.Hardy)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
33.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UKY42 (#21 A.Fegans)Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+10
31.0%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UKY42 broken up by #17 X.Atkins QB hurried by #47 M.Blocton PENALTY AUB Holding (#14 R.Pleasant) 10 yards from UKY42 to AUB48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
29.1%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AUB50 (#10 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 12
50
-8
28.9%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UKY42 (#10 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+13
31.1%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #1 K.Law caught at UKY47, for 13 yards to the AUB45 (#21 A.Fegans)Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
30.0%
(12:01) #48 A.Laros punt 37 yards to the AUB08 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4635% → 29%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
34.5%
(11:54) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 19 yards gain to the AUB27 (#12 Q.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
35.3%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB27, for 3 yards to the AUB30 (#18 C.Dooley; #12 Q.Scott)Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+12
35.1%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #29 O.Mabson II caught at AUB35, for 12 yards to the AUB42 (#7 D.Rayner; #3 A.Afari Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
35.4%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush left for 4 yards gain to the AUB46 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-8
36.1%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AUB38 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+1
30.7%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB39 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
28.6%
(09:04) #14 H.Kaak punt 45 yards to the UKY16 fair catch by #1 K.Law at UKY16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2075% → 82%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
24.9%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #84 J.Kattus caught at UKY20, for 9 yards to the UKY25 (#9 E.Melendez)Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+5
23.3%
(08:18) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #1 K.Law caught at UKY20, for 5 yards to the UKY30 (#9 E.Melendez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.5%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UKY35 (#97 B.Jamison-Travis)Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
21.8%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #22 C.Miller thrown to UKY42 broken up by #13 R.StraderSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
22.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #22 C.Miller caught at UKY40, for 10 yards to the UKY45 (#13 R.Strader), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
19.2%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UKY46 (#3 C.Murray)Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
17.1%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to AUB15Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-9
17.7%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UKY37 (#28 K.Louidor-Faustin)Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 18
OWN 37
+11
18.3%
(05:27) #48 A.Laros punt 57 yards to the AUB06 #4 M.Simmons return 11 yards to the AUB17 (#84 J.Kattus; #10 J.Dunn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2424% → 20%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
24.2%
(05:16) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #23 J.Cobb thrown to AUB15Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-2
23.6%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 2 yards loss to the AUB15 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-3
21.9%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 5 yards to the AUB10 (#3 A.Afari Jr., #34 L.Cowan)Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
20.2%
(03:56) #14 H.Kaak punt 42 yards to the UKY48 PENALTY UKY Holding (#18 M.Skinner) 10 yards from UKY48 to UKY38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3987% → 88%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
13.4%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UKY42 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+15
11.8%
(03:06) No Huddle #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #21 A.Fegans at AUB35 #21 A.Fegans return 15 yards to the UKY49 fumbled by #21 A.Fegans at UKY49 forced by #22 C.Miller recovered by UKY #87 H.Boyer at AUB50, #87 H.Boyer for 1 yard to the UKY49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1590% → 89%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
10.2%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AUB47 (#35 D.Walker)Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
8.9%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB45 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
9.0%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to AUB25Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
10.7%
(02:16) #48 A.Laros punt 36 yards to the AUB09 fair catch by #4 M.Simmons at AUB09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21INT
18 plays · 46 yds · 1:4816% → 9%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
15.8%
(02:09) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #29 O.Mabson II caught at AUB15, for 13 yards to the AUB22 (#7 D.Rayner; #3 A.Afari Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.0%
(01:56) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to AUB30 QB hurried by #90 M.Humphrey-GraceSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
15.1%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #3 P.Thompson caught at AUB28, for 8 yards to the AUB30 (#6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
16.2%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AUB36 (#7 D.Rayner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.6%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 P.Thompson caught at AUB39, for 3 yards to the AUB39, out of bounds at AUB39Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
17.8%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY25Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
15.4%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB40 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+6
10.1%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 C.Coleman caught at AUB45, for 6 yards to the AUB46 (#21 N.Addison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.7%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #3 P.Thompson thrown to AUB50 broken up by #6 J.HardawaySimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
10.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY45 QB hurried by #3 A.Afari Jr. and #7 D.RaynerSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
8.8%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 P.Howard caught at UKY39, for 19 yards to the UKY35 (#25 J.Lovett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
13.8%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to UKY27 broken up by #6 J.HardawaySimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
14.3%
(00:23) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #3 P.Thompson thrown to UKY22 QB hurried by #94 T.GadsonSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-10
11.3%
(00:19) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UKY45 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
8.6%
(00:00) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #25 J.Lovett at UKY00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23
Timeout Auburn, clock 02:23
+16.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:19
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to AUB25
-16.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:23
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB45 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)
-16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com