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MIZ

Missouri 10 at Vanderbilt 17

VAN
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:25 · #45 C.Weselman punt 36 yards to the VANDY08
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:21: No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the VANDY10 (#7 M.Sewell), 1ST DOWN — MIZ win probability +7.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:51: No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 80 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris) — VAN win probability +24.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:49: (13:14) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #89 J.James caught at VANDY00, for 6 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc) — MIZ win probability +25.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:02: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #81 K.Barnett thrown to MIZZOU20 — VAN win probability +17.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:52: (01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris) — VAN win probability +32.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 14:02MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:25MIZ 4th & 8 at VAN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:11MIZ 4th & 8 at VAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00VAN 4th & 20 at MIZ 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:22MIZ 4th & 14 at VAN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−11.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:37VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37MIZ 4th & 1 at VAN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−4.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:54MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04MIZ 4th & 6 at VAN 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−13.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:49MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−14.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:11VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:50MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−1.8
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5837% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to MIZZOU28 QB hurried by #2 R.FontenetteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU28 (#99 J.Singh; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
63.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short left thrown to MIZZOU35 QB hurried by #22 B.Cowan and #15 Z.WoodSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
63.0%
#45 C.Weselman punt 47 yards to the VANDY25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:5263% → 63%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 0 yards to the VANDY25 (#9 Z.Young; #7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 2 yards gain to the VANDY27 (#40 J.Trotter; #1 M.Burks)Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
62.9%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #5 R.Hoskins caught at VANDY31, for 12 yards to the VANDY39 (#12 D.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
63.0%
Shotgun #9 E.Stowers rush right for 4 yards gain to the VANDY43 (#13 D.Carnell; #40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
63.0%
Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 1 yard gain to the VANDY44 (#1 M.Burks)Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
63.0%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to VANDY50 broken up by #2 T.Pride Jr.Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
62.7%
#38 N.Haberer punt 46 yards to the MIZZOU10 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZZOU10 PENALTY VANDY Illegal Formation declined VANDY Kick Catch Interference (#15 J.McVay) 15 yards from MIZZOU10 to MIZZOU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:3437% → 37%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIZZOU33 (#11 B.Longwell; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #29 A.Hardy caught at MIZZOU30, for 2 yards to the MIZZOU35 (#11 B.Longwell; #53 G.Seabrooks III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
62.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #0 J.Manning caught at MIZZOU37, for 2 yards to the MIZZOU37 (#3 K.Taylor)Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIZZOU42 (#92 J.Stone)Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-7
62.3%
Shotgun #0 J.Manning rush left for 7 yards loss to the MIZZOU35 (#2 R.Fontenette)Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.8%
#45 C.Weselman punt 52 yards to the VANDY13 #4 M.Hight return 3 yards to the VANDY16 (#24 N.DeLoach Jr.; #51 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3963% → 62%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 5 yards to the VANDY11 (#10 S.Webb)Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+5
62.3%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #6 T.Richardson caught at VANDY15, for 5 yards to the VANDY16 (#14 T.Newson)Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
61.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Richardson thrown to VANDY28 QB hurried by #9 Z.YoungSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
61.5%
#38 N.Haberer punt 47 yards to the MIZZOU37 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZZOU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3238% → 38%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
61.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIZZOU45 (#1 D.Carter)Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+9
61.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 9 yards gain to the VANDY46 (#11 B.Longwell; #1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 0 yards to the VANDY46 (#96 K.Sydnor; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to VANDY46 QB hurried by #2 R.FontenetteSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+2
61.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush right for 2 yards gain to the VANDY44 (#15 Z.Wood), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
61.6%
#45 C.Weselman punt 36 yards to the VANDY08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 4:2662% → 61%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
62.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 4 yards gain to the VANDY12 (#15 S.Banner)Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+13
62.2%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 13 yards gain to the VANDY25, out of bounds at VANDY25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
62.4%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #6 T.Richardson caught at VANDY27, for 16 yards to the VANDY41, out of bounds at VANDY41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
63.2%
(00:40) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 4 yards gain to the VANDY45 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
63.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 4 yards gain to the VANDY49 (#11 L.Kitchen; #40 J.Trotter) PENALTY MIZZOU Face Mask (#19 D.Smith) 15 yards from VANDY49 to MIZZOU36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
63.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #9 E.Stowers caught at MIZZOU30, for 13 yards to the MIZZOU23 (#13 D.Carnell; #0 S.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
64.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Richardson rush right for 1 yard loss to the MIZZOU24 (#15 S.Banner)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
64.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to MIZZOU02Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+5
63.4%
PENALTY VANDY Delay Of Game 5 yards from MIZZOU24 to MIZZOU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+3
62.6%
(13:13) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short left thrown to MIZZOU20 QB hurried by #8 D.Wilson II and #19 D.Smith PENALTY VANDY UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#53 J.White) 15 yards from MIZZOU29 to MIZZOU44Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 31
OPP 44
0
61.3%
#38 N.Haberer punt 34 yards to the MIZZOU10 fair catch by #3 K.Coleman Jr. at MIZZOU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 7:4839% → 45%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU13 (#92 J.Stone; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
61.2%
Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #2 M.Johnson caught at MIZZOU25, for 12 yards to the MIZZOU25 (#29 M.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.9%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #0 J.Manning caught at MIZZOU28, for 3 yards to the MIZZOU28 (#17 M.Davis; #22 B.Cowan)Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
60.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIZZOU36 (#2 R.Fontenette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
60.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at MIZZOU32, for 9 yards to the MIZZOU45 (#1 D.Carter; #2 R.Fontenette)Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+21
59.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY40, for 21 yards to the VANDY34 (#11 B.Longwell; #1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
57.8%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 5 yards gain to the VANDY29 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
57.5%
(09:15) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #87 B.Norfleet caught at VANDY29, for 3 yards to the VANDY26 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
58.0%
(08:20) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VANDY23 (#10 L.Patterson; #11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
56.0%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VANDY21 (#10 L.Patterson; #96 K.Sydnor)Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-15
55.8%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush right for 20 yards gain to the VANDY01 (#7 M.Sewell) PENALTY MIZZOU Tripping (#56 D.Giudice) 15 yards from VANDY21 to VANDY36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 23
OPP 36
+11
57.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #1 D.Olugbode caught at VANDY29, for 11 yards to the VANDY25 (#4 M.Hight; #22 B.Cowan), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+4
57.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VANDY21 (#95 L.Zunk)Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
55.5%
#88 R.Meyer field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc), clock 05:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:0656% → 60%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
56.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete deep right to #6 T.Richardson caught at MIZZOU40, for 37 yards to the MIZZOU38, out of bounds at MIZZOU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
59.4%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at MIZZOU30, for 8 yards to the MIZZOU30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
60.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #6 T.Richardson caught at MIZZOU26, for 4 yards to the MIZZOU26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
60.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short left to #9 E.Stowers caught at MIZZOU07, for 19 yards to the MIZZOU07 (#15 S.Banner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
60.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIZZOU08 (#20 N.Rodriguez, #8 D.Wilson II)Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+10
60.1%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 8 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:55 PENALTY VANDY Holding declined VANDY Holding (#0 J.Sherrill) 10 yards from MIZZOU08 to MIZZOU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU15 (#5 K.Jacobs)Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
56.8%
PENALTY VANDY False Start (#55 B.Henderson) 5 yards from MIZZOU15 to MIZZOU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
56.8%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #9 E.Stowers thrown to MIZZOU15 QB hurried by #8 D.Wilson IISimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
60.2%
(02:03) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris), clock 02:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:3842% → 42%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
57.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush right for 34 yards gain to the VANDY41 (#8 C.Heard; #11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VANDY40 (#10 L.Patterson; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short middle to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY35, for 5 yards to the VANDY35 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+10
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush left for 5 yards gain to the VANDY30 (#29 M.Capers) PENALTY MIZZOU Holding (#70 C.Green) 10 yards from VANDY35 to VANDY45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
56.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete deep right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to VANDY25Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
57.9%
#45 C.Weselman punt 37 yards to the VANDY08 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at VANDY08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
59.7%
Kneel down by #2 D.Pavia at VANDY07 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3961% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
60.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VANDY19 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
61.0%
Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VANDY23 (#40 J.Trotter; #10 S.Webb)Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-3
60.2%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass intercepted by #8 D.Wilson II at VANDY23 broken up by #7 C.McClellan #8 D.Wilson II return 3 yards to the VANDY20 (#6 T.Richardson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0647% → 44%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
52.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Coleman Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the VANDY10 (#7 M.Sewell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
52.8%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 7 yards gain to the VANDY03 (#4 M.Hight; #11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
52.8%
#29 A.Hardy rush right for 1 yard gain to the VANDY02 (#11 B.Longwell; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to VANDY02 QB hurried by #96 K.Sydnor and #24 N.RinaldiSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.2%
(11:21) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VANDY01 (#29 M.Capers; #11 B.Longwell), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. #9 B.Pribula injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3861% → 59%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
61.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 1 yard gain to the VANDY02 (#9 Z.Young)Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
60.8%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to VANDY05Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+5
59.5%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at VANDY08, for 5 yards to the VANDY07 (#13 D.Carnell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+9
59.0%
#38 N.Haberer punt 50 yards to the MIZZOU43 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 9 yards to the VANDY48 (#10 L.Patterson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:3346% → 45%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
54.0%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 1 yard gain to the VANDY47 (#96 K.Sydnor; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
54.1%
Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #2 M.Johnson caught at VANDY50, for 2 yards to the VANDY45 (#95 L.Zunk; #99 J.Singh)Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
54.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY39, for 6 yards to the VANDY39 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
56.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 3 yards gain to the VANDY36 (#99 J.Singh; #96 K.Sydnor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 2 yards gain to the VANDY34 (#2 R.Fontenette; #94 B.Mann)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
52.1%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short right to #87 B.Norfleet thrown to VANDY22Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+4
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #0 J.Manning caught at VANDY37, for 4 yards to the VANDY30 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+15
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #0 J.Manning caught at VANDY17, for 15 yards to the VANDY15, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush left for 0 yards to the VANDY15 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Johnson thrown to VANDY10 QB hurried by #8 C.HeardSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+4
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VANDY11 (#95 L.Zunk)Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
55.0%
#88 R.Meyer field goal attempt from 29 yards NO GOOD (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc), clock 04:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 80 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0224% → 47%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 2 yards loss to the MIZZOU23 (#99 J.Singh; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
76.8%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 17 yards gain to the MIZZOU40 (#4 M.Hight), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZZOU42 (#99 J.Singh; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to MIZZOU48 broken up by #8 C.Heard PENALTY VANDY Pass Interference (#8 C.Heard) 7 yards from MIZZOU42 to MIZZOU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
73.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #89 J.James caught at VANDY48, for 9 yards to the VANDY42 (#10 L.Patterson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
74.7%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 5 yards gain to the VANDY37 (#95 L.Zunk), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
75.2%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush left for 2 yards gain to the VANDY35 (#99 J.Singh; #54 M.Nelson)Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
73.7%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #89 J.James caught at VANDY30, for 6 yards to the VANDY29 (#1 D.Carter)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+15
75.4%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 15 yards gain to the VANDY14 (#2 R.Fontenette; #29 M.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
73.5%
(14:41) Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VANDY10 (#7 M.Sewell; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
73.5%
Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Manning thrown to VANDY00Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
78.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #2 M.Johnson caught at VANDY15, for 4 yards to the VANDY06 (#7 M.Sewell; #29 M.Capers)Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
53.0%
(13:14) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #89 J.James caught at VANDY00, for 6 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3861% → 59%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 4 yards gain to the VANDY29 (#20 N.Rodriguez)Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
61.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 2 yards gain to the VANDY31 (#20 N.Rodriguez; #40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
59.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to VANDY43 broken up by #0 S.HallSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.8%
#38 N.Haberer punt 45 yards to the MIZZOU24, out of bounds at MIZZOU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:0945% → 51%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
54.9%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIZZOU26 (#2 R.Fontenette; #10 L.Patterson)Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
55.0%
Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIZZOU31 (#8 C.Heard; #11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+6
54.7%
(10:10) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush right for 6 yards gain to the MIZZOU37 (#11 B.Longwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
53.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZZOU38 (#4 M.Hight)Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
52.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #86 J.Harris caught at MIZZOU40, for 8 yards to the MIZZOU46 (#7 M.Sewell)Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
50.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIZZOU50 (#53 G.Seabrooks III; #24 N.Rinaldi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
50
0
49.0%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Manning thrown to VANDY40 QB hurried by #96 K.Sydnor and #24 N.Rinaldi. #96 K.Sydnor injured on the playSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
50
-6
48.6%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 6 yards loss to the MIZZOU44 fumbled by #20 J.Roberts at MIZZOU44 forced by #8 C.Heard recovered by VANDY #8 C.Heard at MIZZOU44 #8 C.Heard return 0 yards to the MIZZOU44 (#20 J.Roberts)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:1066% → 96%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #81 K.Barnett thrown to MIZZOU20Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
65.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep left to #81 K.Barnett thrown to MIZZOU10 PENALTY MIZZOU Roughing The Passer (#11 L.Kitchen) 15 yards from MIZZOU44 to MIZZOU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
67.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU26 (#40 J.Trotter; #11 L.Kitchen)Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-1
67.9%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush left for 1 yard loss to the MIZZOU27 (#13 D.Carnell)Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
65.5%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #9 E.Stowers caught at MIZZOU25, for 10 yards to the MIZZOU17 (#13 D.Carnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
67.9%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #81 K.Barnett rush right for 13 yards gain to the MIZZOU04 (#1 M.Burks; #9 Z.Young) PENALTY VANDY Holding (#53 J.White) 10 yards from MIZZOU17 to MIZZOU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+15
66.8%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to MIZZOU03 PENALTY MIZZOU Pass Interference (#0 S.Hall) 15 yards from MIZZOU27 to MIZZOU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
68.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU09 (#7 C.McClellan; #1 M.Burks)Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
68.0%
(03:53) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIZZOU06 (#5 K.Jacobs; #7 C.McClellan)Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
65.9%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIZZOU01 (#5 K.Jacobs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
(02:17) No Huddle #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZZOU01 (#40 J.Trotter)Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20END OF GAME
22 plays · 74 yds · 1:4610% → 8%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to VANDY35Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
90.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIZZOU31, End Of Play PENALTY MIZZOU Tripping (#55 C.Tollison) 13 yards from MIZZOU25 to MIZZOU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
90.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Manning thrown to MIZZOU40 QB hurried by #10 L.PattersonSimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+16
91.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Manning thrown to MIZZOU20 broken up by #1 D.Carter PENALTY VANDY Pass Interference (#3 K.Taylor) 16 yards from MIZZOU12 to MIZZOU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
88.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to VANDY48Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
90.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep left to #2 M.Johnson thrown to VANDY30Similar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
91.0%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIZZOU33 (#3 K.Taylor), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
90.4%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #89 J.James caught at MIZZOU39, for 8 yards to the MIZZOU41 (#4 M.Hight), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers rush middle for 0 yards to the MIZZOU41 (#24 N.Rinaldi; #15 Z.Wood)Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+14
93.4%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY45, for 14 yards to the VANDY45 (#1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short right to #20 J.Roberts caught at VANDY49, for 2 yards to the VANDY43, out of bounds at VANDY43Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
90.2%
PENALTY MIZZOU False Start (#77 C.Peagler) 5 yards from VANDY43 to VANDY48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+18
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short middle to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY32, for 18 yards to the VANDY30 (#22 B.Cowan; #27 J.Lackey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
85.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers sacked for loss of 7 yards to the VANDY37 (#9 K.Koht) PENALTY MIZZOU Intentional Grounding (#5 M.Zollers)Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 17
OPP 37
0
90.9%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.Olugbode thrown to VANDY15Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+36
92.0%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete deep right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at VANDY01, for 36 yards to the VANDY01 (#27 J.Lackey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:52
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
+32.3
TD · Q4 12:49
(13:14) Shotgun #5 M.Zollers pass complete short left to #89 J.James caught at VANDY00, for 6 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #45 C.Weselman, LS: #51 B.Le Blanc)
-25.1
TD · Q3 3:51
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 80 yards gain to the MIZZOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
+24.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com