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ALA

Alabama 29 at South Carolina 22

SC
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · William Joyce 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−24.3Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:59: LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 54 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SC win probability +17.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 1:38: William Joyce 47 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +8.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:00: LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK) — SC win probability +22.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:16: Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +43.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:34: Germie Bernard run for 25 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +36.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:32SC 4th & 4 at ALA 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:50SC 4th & 4 at SC 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55SC 4th & 3 at ALA 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:11SC 4th & 1 at ALA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17SC 4th & 12 at ALA 35, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:23SC 4th & 15 at ALA 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45ALA 4th & 3 at SC 3, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:23SC 4th & 19 at SC 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:20ALA 4th & 1 at SC 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:08ALA 4th & 1 at SC 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−2.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:58ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−4.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:25SC 4th & 9 at SC 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−3.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:31ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:38SC 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−11.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:23ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−2.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:28SC 4th & 8 at SC 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:17ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:45ALA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:59SC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:00SC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16ALA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.3%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:34ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 7:1320% → 25%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
20.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 6 yds to the SC 26Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
20.6%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
20.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the SC 33Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
20.9%
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the SC 40Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+10
21.3%
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
50
+12
21.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 12 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
22.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Matt Fuller for 8 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
22.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
22.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
22.9%
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
23.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for 15 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
23.8%
Matt Fuller run for 4 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
23.9%
Matt Fuller run for 4 yds to the ALA 4Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-2
24.2%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
24.8%
William Joyce 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5375% → 74%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
24.7%
Germie Bernard run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
24.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-1
25.3%
Ty Simpson sacked by Bryan Thomas Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+9
26.2%
Blake Doud punt for 51 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 9 yds to the SC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-18
23.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass intercepted DaShawn Jones return for 18 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1924% → 24%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
23.8%
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 3 yards to the SC 22Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
24.0%
Jayden Sellers run for 9 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
24.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Mason Love punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4876% → 75%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.5%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
24.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+8
25.4%
Blake Doud punt for 59 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 8 yds to the SC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:5025% → 27%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
24.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
25.3%
South Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SC 31Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+33
25.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 33 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
26.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
26.9%
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+6
26.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for 6 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
26.5%
William Joyce 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2374% → 75%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
25.9%
Germie Bernard run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 16
OWN 23
-8
26.4%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 25 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 15Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 24
OWN 15
0
26.7%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 24
OWN 15
+5
27.2%
South Carolina Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the ALA 20Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+21
27.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 21 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
25.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 25 yds to the SC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
25.5%
Ty Simpson sacked by Vicari Swain for a loss of 8 yards to the SC 42 Ty Simpson fumbled, recovered by SC Troy Pikes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8FG
17 plays · 42 yds · 6:5629% → 31%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
28.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 14 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
29.5%
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
29.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 8 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
29.6%
Matt Fuller run for no gain to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
29.1%
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
31.1%
LaNorris Sellers run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 37Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
29.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+2
28.1%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+22
27.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 22 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
31.2%
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+12
31.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for no gain to the ALA 23 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (12 Yards) to the ALA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
31.5%
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 21Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 20
OPP 21
-3
31.6%
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 24Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 23
OPP 24
0
30.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 23
OPP 24
+8
29.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 8 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
31.1%
William Joyce 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:1470% → 80%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
30.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 11 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
29.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 18 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.5%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the SC 48Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
28.3%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+41
28.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 41 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
26.7%
Ty Simpson run for 4 yds to the SC 3Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
26.7%
Kadyn Proctor run for no gain to the SC 3Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
27.7%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 3 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:1421% → 20%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
21.4%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the SC 16Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
21.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
20.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
20.3%
Mason Love punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:1879% → 80%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
21.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 8 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
20.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
20.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 9 yds to the SC 43Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
19.2%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
20.3%
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds to the SC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
18.7%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
18.7%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+23
19.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:3779% → 79%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
20.6%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
19.9%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
20.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
19.9%
Ty Simpson run for 9 yds to the SC 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
19.5%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
19.9%
Daniel Hill run for no gain to the SC 46Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
21.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
38.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 54 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4267% → 64%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.3%
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
34.0%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
35.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
36.4%
Blake Doud punt for 60 yds, downed at the SC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3335% → 34%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
34.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
34.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the SC 19Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+12
33.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 12 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
36.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the SC 32Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
35.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
33.6%
Mason Love punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 25Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
34.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2466% → 63%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
32.4%
Simpson, Ty pass complete to Miller, Jam for 5 yards to the ALA37, PENALTY ALA personal foul 15 yards to the ALA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
35.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 7 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
36.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
37.3%
Blake Doud punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:3837% → 52%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.8%
LaNorris Sellers run for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
37.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Andrew Colasurdo for 5 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
37.7%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the SC 37Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
38.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 17 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
42.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 7 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
42.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+6
41.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
44.5%
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+12
40.6%
LaNorris Sellers run for 12 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
45.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
43.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
52.3%
William Joyce 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0750% → 46%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
49.6%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 23Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
50.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
51.8%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
53.7%
Blake Doud punt for 56 yds, downed at the SC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3252% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
51.8%
LaNorris Sellers run for 6 yds to the SC 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
52.2%
LaNorris Sellers run for no gain to the SC 22Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-4
50.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 18Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-5
49.4%
Mason Love punt for 47 yds , Keon Sabb returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 30 Keon Sabb fumbled, recovered by SC Nyck HarborSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0060% → 85%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
60.3%
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
61.0%
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
59.2%
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
61.7%
Matt Fuller run for 8 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+1
62.3%
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the ALA 10Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
84.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 7:2818% → 62%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
82.2%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+13
84.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 13 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
81.2%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
80.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
80.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
80.8%
Daniel Hill run for 11 yds to the SC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
80.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 11 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
80.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 5 yds to the SC 25Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
81.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 10 yds to the SC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
81.3%
Ty Simpson run for 7 yds to the SC 8Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
81.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 6 yds to the SC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
81.8%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 4Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2156% → 60%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
55.8%
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the SC 31Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
55.6%
Sellers, LaNorris pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA offside (Smith, James) 5 yards to the SC36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
59.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the SC 38 LaNorris Sellers fumbled, forced by Deontae Lawson, recovered by ALA Tim Keenan IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:5560% → 95%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
40.0%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
37.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds to the SC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for no gain to the SC 25Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
36.5%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico ScottSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
4.7%
Germie Bernard run for 25 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:168% → 8%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
8.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds to the SC 16Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
8.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-4
7.9%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Keon Keeley for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:16
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)
-43.3
TD · Q4 0:34
Germie Bernard run for 25 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-36.2
TD · Q4 10:00
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com