ALA
Alabama 29 at South Carolina 22
SC2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · LaNorris Sellers sacked by Keon Keeley for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 12
01
Market gave SC a 20% pregame chance
−34
02
SC has the ball
−13
03
Blowout context favors the defense
−7
04
0:00 left in regulation
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds , Nyck Harbor return for 20 yds to the SC 20
0.0
Q1 14:45
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+1.6
Q1 14:20
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 6 yds to the SC 26
0.0
Q1 14:11
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SC 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:58
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the SC 33
0.0
Q1 13:33
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the SC 40
0.0
Q1 12:58
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q1 12:22
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 12 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 11:44
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Matt Fuller for 8 yds to the ALA 30
+0.9
Q1 11:25
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 11:11
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 10:38
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the ALA 27
+0.2
Q1 9:55
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for 15 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:10
Matt Fuller run for 4 yds to the ALA 8
+0.1
Q1 8:45
Matt Fuller run for 4 yds to the ALA 4
-0.3
Q1 8:08
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 6
+0.3
Q1 7:32
William Joyce 24 yd FG GOOD
+3.5
Q1 7:32
William Joyce kickoff for 55 yds
-1.1
Q1 7:20
Germie Bernard run for 4 yds to the ALA 39
-0.9
Q1 6:45
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 41
-0.6
Q1 5:55
Ty Simpson sacked by Bryan Thomas Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 40
-0.1
Q1 5:27
Blake Doud punt for 51 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 9 yds to the SC 18
+0.7
Q1 5:17
LaNorris Sellers pass intercepted DaShawn Jones return for 18 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-6.5
Q1 5:17
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.4
Q1 5:09
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 3 yards to the SC 22
+2.4
Q1 4:26
Jayden Sellers run for 9 yds to the SC 31
0.0
Q1 3:59
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 3:50
Mason Love punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 20
0.0
Q1 3:42
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
-2.4
Q1 3:20
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds to the ALA 26
0.0
Q1 3:08
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 2:54
Blake Doud punt for 59 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 8 yds to the SC 23
0.0
Q1 2:45
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST down
+2.4
Q1 2:15
South Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SC 31
0.0
Q1 1:59
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 33 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:17
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+1.7
Q1 0:50
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the ALA 35
+0.1
Q1 0:25
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for 6 yds to the ALA 29
-0.1
Q2 14:55
William Joyce 47 yd FG MISSED
+0.5
Q2 14:44
Germie Bernard run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 23
-3.8
Q2 14:10
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 25 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 15
0.0
Q2 13:35
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 13:27
South Carolina Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the ALA 20
0.0
Q2 12:58
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 21 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:12
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 25 yds to the SC 34 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q2 11:21
Ty Simpson sacked by Vicari Swain for a loss of 8 yards to the SC 42 Ty Simpson fumbled, recovered by SC Troy Pikes , return for 0 yards
-0.3
Q2 11:19
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 14 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down
+3.9
Q2 10:55
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the ALA 43
+1.4
Q2 10:10
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 8 yds to the ALA 35
+0.9
Q2 9:49
Matt Fuller run for no gain to the ALA 35
-0.2
Q2 9:11
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 8:45
LaNorris Sellers run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 37
+0.4
Q2 8:18
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 7:57
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the ALA 35
-1.3
Q2 7:33
Timeout South Carolina, clock 07:33
-0.2
Q2 7:17
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 22 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:42
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 23
+0.4
Q2 6:20
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Donovan Murph for no gain to the ALA 23 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (12 Yards) to the ALA 11 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q2 6:02
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 21
0.0
Q2 5:30
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 24
0.0
Q2 5:12
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+0.1
Q2 4:55
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 8 yds to the ALA 16
0.0
Q2 4:23
William Joyce 34 yd FG GOOD
+5.1
Q2 4:23
Max Kelley kickoff for 63 yds , Rico Scott return for 17 yds to the ALA 19
-1.6
Q2 3:59
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 11 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST down
-6.5
Q2 3:40
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 18 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:20
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the SC 48
-1.0
Q2 3:01
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 2:44
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 41 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 2:00
Ty Simpson run for 4 yds to the SC 3
+0.2
Q2 1:55
Kadyn Proctor run for no gain to the SC 3
0.0
Q2 1:50
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:45
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 3 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-7.8
Q2 1:45
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.3
Q2 1:37
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the SC 16
+2.1
Q2 1:37
Timeout Alabama, clock 01:37
-0.4
Q2 1:35
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:30
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+0.7
Q2 1:23
Mason Love punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 35
0.0
Q2 1:18
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
-1.8
Q2 1:11
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 8 yds to the ALA 43
+0.2
Q2 0:51
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q2 0:45
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:35
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 9 yds to the SC 43
0.0
Q2 0:33
Timeout Alabama, clock 00:33
-0.1
Q2 0:27
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:20
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds to the SC 41 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 0:06
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
-0.3
Q2 0:06
Timeout South Carolina, clock 00:06
0.0
Q2 0:02
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:02
Timeout Alabama, clock 00:02
0.0
Q2 0:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 15:00
William Joyce kickoff for 33 yds , Kaleb Edwards return for 3 yds to the ALA 35
+2.4
Q3 14:45
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 39
-1.2
Q3 14:08
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 42
-0.8
Q3 13:10
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:45
Ty Simpson run for 9 yds to the SC 46
0.0
Q3 12:00
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:44
Daniel Hill run for no gain to the SC 46
0.0
Q3 11:08
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan Williams
+0.1
Q3 10:59
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 54 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+15.6
Q3 10:59
Timeout South Carolina, clock 10:59
-11.1
Q3 10:59
Max Kelley kickoff for 60 yds for a touchback
+10.6
Q3 10:40
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24
-5.1
Q3 10:16
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
+0.9
Q3 10:10
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 9:58
Blake Doud punt for 60 yds, downed at the SC 16
+0.4
Q3 9:52
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+5.3
Q3 9:30
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the SC 19
0.0
Q3 9:09
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 12 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 8:48
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the SC 32
0.0
Q3 8:26
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 8:25
Mason Love punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 25
0.0
Q3 8:19
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 7:55
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 32
-5.3
Q3 7:30
Simpson, Ty pass complete to Miller, Jam for 5 yards to the ALA37, PENALTY ALA personal foul 15 yards to the ALA17, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 7:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 7 yds to the ALA 24
+0.1
Q3 6:42
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 6:31
Blake Doud punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SC 25
0.0
Q3 6:16
LaNorris Sellers run for 5 yds to the SC 30
+3.6
Q3 5:45
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Andrew Colasurdo for 5 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:05
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the SC 37
0.0
Q3 4:34
LaNorris Sellers run for 17 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST down
+1.5
Q3 4:01
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 7 yds to the ALA 39
+2.8
Q3 3:59
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+0.8
Q3 3:45
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 3:20
South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 43
+0.2
Q3 2:50
LaNorris Sellers run for 12 yds to the ALA 31
-1.7
Q3 2:22
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the ALA 29
0.0
Q3 1:43
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
+1.2
Q3 1:38
William Joyce 47 yd FG GOOD
+12.8
Q3 1:38
Max Kelley kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.4
Q3 1:30
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 23
-1.2
Q3 1:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 28
0.0
Q3 0:36
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
0.0
Q3 0:23
Blake Doud punt for 56 yds, downed at the SC 16
0.0
Q3 0:00
LaNorris Sellers run for 6 yds to the SC 22
+1.9
Q4 14:55
LaNorris Sellers run for no gain to the SC 22
0.0
Q4 14:02
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 18
+1.1
Q4 13:28
Mason Love punt for 47 yds , Keon Sabb returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 30 Keon Sabb fumbled, recovered by SC Nyck Harbor
-0.7
Q4 13:00
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 28
+2.4
Q4 12:15
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the ALA 21
+1.4
Q4 12:00
Matt Fuller run for 2 yds to the ALA 19 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 11:21
Matt Fuller run for 8 yds to the ALA 11
+0.2
Q4 10:41
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the ALA 10
0.0
Q4 10:00
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
+19.5
Q4 10:00
Max Kelley kickoff for 61 yds , Rico Scott return for 17 yds to the ALA 21
-0.4
Q4 9:44
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 24
-0.4
Q4 9:04
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
0.0
Q4 8:56
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 13 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:23
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 43
+0.1
Q4 7:47
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
0.0
Q4 7:37
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q4 6:51
Daniel Hill run for 11 yds to the SC 41 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 6:40
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 11 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q4 5:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 5 yds to the SC 25
+0.9
Q4 4:33
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 10 yds to the SC 15 for a 1ST down
+3.8
Q4 4:07
Ty Simpson run for 7 yds to the SC 8
+2.2
Q4 3:29
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 6 yds to the SC 2 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q4 2:46
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 4
+1.0
Q4 2:16
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.9
Q4 2:16
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards)
+2.3
Q4 2:00
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the SC 31
+9.4
Q4 1:54
Sellers, LaNorris pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA offside (Smith, James) 5 yards to the SC36, NO PLAY.
+1.0
Q4 1:39
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the SC 38 LaNorris Sellers fumbled, forced by Deontae Lawson, recovered by ALA Tim Keenan III
+0.2
Q4 1:29
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the SC 31
-13.8
Q4 0:54
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds to the SC 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:54
Timeout South Carolina, clock 00:54
0.0
Q4 0:47
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for no gain to the SC 25
0.0
Q4 0:46
Timeout South Carolina, clock 00:46
+0.2
Q4 0:42
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico Scott
0.0
Q4 0:42
Timeout Alabama, clock 00:42
0.0
Q4 0:34
Germie Bernard run for 25 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-21.5
Q4 0:34
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds , Nyck Harbor return for 9 yds to the SC 9
0.0
Q4 0:16
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds to the SC 16
+3.0
Q4 0:11
TEAM pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:00
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Keon Keeley for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 12
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:16
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.9
TD · Q4 0:34
Germie Bernard run for 25 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q4 10:00
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
+19.5