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MISS

Ole Miss 34 at Oklahoma 26

OU
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:46 · TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense−14.0Pregame prior+9.1Garbage-time factor−4.6Score differential−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:46: Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +11.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:57: Lucas Carneiro 29 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +7.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:45: Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick) — OU win probability +17.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OU win probability +18.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:33: Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MISS win probability +27.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 12:30MISS 4th & 9 at OU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52OU 4th & 10 at MISS 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:36OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:25MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:33MISS 4th & 5 at OU 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:32OU 4th & 2 at MISS 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−3.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:20MISS 4th & 3 at OU 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:47OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:46MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.9%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16OU 4th & 19 at MISS 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:57MISS 4th & 8 at OU 12, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:44MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.8%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:35OU 4th & 10 at OU 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:04MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:30OU 4th & 5 at MISS 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:03MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:13OU 4th & 2 at OU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:07MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46MISS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:45OU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:04OU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:33MISS Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:2530% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
69.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
69.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+25
69.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 25 yds to the OU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
69.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the OU 28Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
69.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
69.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
69.0%
Lucas Carneiro 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3369% → 69%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 26Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
68.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 6 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
68.6%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
68.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 39 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
69.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MISS 19Similar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+1
69.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 1 yd to the MISS 18Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-10
69.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MISS 28Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
68.8%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+4
68.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
68.7%
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4032% → 36%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.4%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
68.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
67.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
67.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+25
67.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 25 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
67.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OU 28Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 5
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
63.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1965% → 64%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
65.1%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.8%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 34Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
64.1%
Grayson Miller punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:4636% → 38%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
64.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 16Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
63.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 8 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
63.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
62.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 13 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
61.9%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
61.5%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-5
60.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
61.7%
Oscar Bird punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 1:3262% → 67%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
61.7%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
61.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 1 yd to the OU 24Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+76
66.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 76 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1934% → 35%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.1%
Kewan Lacy run for 13 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
65.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
65.2%
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+5
66.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+4
65.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
65.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for no gain to the OU 43 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the OU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8SF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:1566% → 64%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
65.9%
Blaylock, Tory rush for 5 yards to the OU10, PENALTY OU illegal formation 2 yards to the OU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 12
OWN 3
-3
64.2%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:1038% → 43%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
62.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
63.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+16
63.4%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 16 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
61.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+21
61.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 21 yds to the OU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
60.1%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 22Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
60.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 2 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
59.9%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 15 yds to the OU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.2%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.1%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
57.1%
Lucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5058% → 56%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
59.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 15 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
59.8%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
59.9%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 3 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
58.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
56.0%
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:3448% → 63%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
52.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 4 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
51.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
50.9%
Trinidad Chambliss run for no gain to the OU 42Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+6
51.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 6 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
49.4%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 39Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+31
49.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 31 yds to the OU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
48.5%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 9Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
48.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the OU 2Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3840% → 40%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
39.5%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Grayson Miller punt for 49 yds, downed at the MISS 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0842% → 39%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.6%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
41.5%
John Mateer run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 25Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
39.6%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Grayson Miller punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5361% → 61%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
39.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
39.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+5
40.1%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete to Lee, Cayden, PENALTY OU substitution infraction 5 yards to the MISS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
39.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-10
39.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15FG
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2343% → 43%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
42.8%
Mateer, John pass incomplete, PENALTY OU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MISS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
42.2%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the MISS 20Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
41.5%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 15
OPP 20
-4
39.0%
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen and Jaden Yates for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+42
43.3%
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 5:1957% → 71%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MISS 20Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
43.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
43.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
42.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 15 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
39.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
38.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+13
38.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 13 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
37.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
37.6%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete, PENALTY OU roughing passer 15 yards to the OU26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
36.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 6 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+6
35.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
35.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 15Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
35.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+8
35.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 8 yds to the OU 7Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 7
-5
36.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OU 12Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
29.1%
Lucas Carneiro 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
48.0%
Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5655% → 53%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
46.8%
Oscar Bird punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:2649% → 70%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
49.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
49.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+22
50.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 7 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
52.1%
John Mateer run for 16 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
51.8%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the MISS 11Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
51.5%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
69.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2235% → 71%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
62.4%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
63.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
65.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds Dae'Quan Wright fumbled, recovered by MISS Dae'Quan Wright for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
61.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+39
61.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 39 yds to the OU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
57.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the OU 14Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-2
58.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 16Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+10
59.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 10 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
57.3%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 8Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
29.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3642% → 39%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.8%
Xavier Robinson run for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
44.0%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
42.5%
Xavier Robinson run for 8 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
45.3%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the OU 42Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
42.8%
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 41Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
41.1%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
38.7%
Grayson Miller punt for 44 yds, downed at the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1468% → 70%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
31.7%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 15Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
31.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 5 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
28.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+23
29.7%
Oscar Bird punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 23 yds to the MISS 47 Isaiah Sategna III fumbled, recovered by MISS Ethan FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:4676% → 89%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+43
23.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 43 yds to the OU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
21.2%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 14Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-2
21.1%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 16Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 0
OPP 16
-4
16.6%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 20Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
10.8%
Lucas Carneiro 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:2815% → 10%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
14.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
16.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
50
0
16.2%
John Mateer run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
50
0
13.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
50
+15
10.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
13.9%
John Mateer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+7
10.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 7 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
13.1%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
10.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:1995% → 97%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
5.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
3.8%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-1
3.3%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
3.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:574% → 5%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
4.4%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+21
3.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 21 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
4.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 8 yds to the OU 46Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
5.1%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
4.8%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+9
4.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
5.2%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
4.7%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:33
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-27.8
TD · Q3 1:04
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+18.2
TD · Q3 5:45
Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com