MISS
Ole Miss 34 at Oklahoma 26
OU2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:02 · John Mateer pass incomplete
01
OU has the ball
−24
02
Blowout context favors the defense
−16
03
OU trailing by 8
−6
04
0:02 left in regulation
−2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds to the MISS 30
-2.0
Q1 14:24
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q1 13:58
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 46
-1.9
Q1 13:30
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 25 yds to the OU 29 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 13:13
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the OU 28
-0.4
Q1 12:40
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 12:35
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 12:30
Lucas Carneiro 45 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
Q1 12:30
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.3
Q1 12:25
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 26
+5.1
Q1 11:50
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 6 yds to the OU 32
0.0
Q1 11:11
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:40
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 39 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:20
Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MISS 19
+2.7
Q1 9:59
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 1 yd to the MISS 18
0.0
Q1 9:36
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MISS 28
0.0
Q1 9:31
John Mateer pass incomplete
+0.1
Q1 9:20
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 4 yds to the MISS 24
-0.2
Q1 8:52
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOOD
+1.6
Q1 8:52
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.0
Q1 8:47
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-2.5
Q1 8:32
Trinidad Chambliss run for 9 yds to the MISS 34
-0.1
Q1 8:08
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 7:22
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 42
-1.1
Q1 6:59
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-0.3
Q1 6:55
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 25 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:23
Oklahoma Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OU 28
-1.5
Q1 6:15
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 6:07
Kewan Lacy run for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-16.3
Q1 6:07
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q1 5:55
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 31
+3.4
Q1 5:28
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the OU 34
0.0
Q1 5:09
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 34
0.0
Q1 4:36
Grayson Miller punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 15
0.0
Q1 4:29
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 16
-3.4
Q1 3:59
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 8 yds to the MISS 24
0.0
Q1 3:43
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 3:03
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 13 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:44
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 40
-1.6
Q1 1:58
Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds to the MISS 47
-1.6
Q1 1:19
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 42
0.0
Q1 0:43
Oscar Bird punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 17
+0.3
Q1 0:36
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 23
+5.5
Q2 14:55
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 1 yd to the OU 24
-0.1
Q2 14:04
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 76 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+16.6
Q2 14:04
Tate Sandell kickoff for 62 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 13:44
Kewan Lacy run for 13 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST down
-3.3
Q2 13:20
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 39
-1.1
Q2 12:45
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 34
0.0
Q2 12:35
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 12:35
-0.6
Q2 12:30
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MISS 39
0.0
Q2 12:05
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 43
-0.9
Q2 11:25
Oscar Bird punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for no gain to the OU 43 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the OU 5
+0.2
Q2 11:06
Blaylock, Tory rush for 5 yards to the OU10, PENALTY OU illegal formation 2 yards to the OU3, NO PLAY.
+5.1
Q2 10:51
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETY
-2.9
Q2 10:51
Tate Sandell kickoff for 70 yds , Izaiah Hartrup return for 38 yds to the MISS 48
0.0
Q2 10:43
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 43
-9.2
Q2 10:39
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
+0.8
Q2 10:30
Trinidad Chambliss run for 16 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:00
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-0.9
Q2 9:57
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 9:45
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 21 yds to the OU 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:28
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 22
0.0
Q2 8:45
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 2 yds to the OU 20
0.0
Q2 8:08
Trinidad Chambliss run for 15 yds to the OU 5 for a 1ST down
-2.0
Q2 7:45
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 7:41
Austin Simmons pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 7:37
Austin Simmons pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 7:33
Lucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal
-6.5
Q2 7:33
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.8
Q2 7:22
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 6 yds to the OU 31
+8.6
Q2 7:01
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 15 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:36
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 49
+0.7
Q2 5:55
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 3 yds to the MISS 48
+0.4
Q2 5:05
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 2 yds to the MISS 46
-1.8
Q2 4:39
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 04:39
0.0
Q2 4:32
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 49
0.0
Q2 4:20
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 4 yds to the OU 45
-10.8
Q2 3:57
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 03:57
-0.4
Q2 3:33
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the OU 42
0.0
Q2 2:49
Trinidad Chambliss run for no gain to the OU 42
+0.1
Q2 2:20
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 6 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 2:00
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 39
-0.9
Q2 1:45
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 31 yds to the OU 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:36
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 9
0.0
Q2 1:35
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 01:35
0.0
Q2 1:23
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the OU 2
0.0
Q2 0:46
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-12.0
Q2 0:46
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.4
Q2 0:38
John Mateer pass incomplete
+1.8
Q2 0:20
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for no gain to the OU 25
-0.4
Q2 0:12
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:12
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 00:12
0.0
Q2 0:00
Grayson Miller punt for 49 yds, downed at the MISS 26
0.0
Q3 15:00
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q3 14:55
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 27
-0.7
Q3 14:35
John Mateer run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 25
0.0
Q3 13:58
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 13:47
Grayson Miller punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 16
-0.4
Q3 13:39
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-1.0
Q3 13:33
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 13:30
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete to Lee, Cayden, PENALTY OU substitution infraction 5 yards to the MISS21, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 13:17
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the MISS 25
0.0
Q3 12:46
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 15
0.0
Q3 12:39
Mateer, John pass incomplete, PENALTY OU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MISS20, NO PLAY.
+3.2
Q3 12:19
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the MISS 20
0.0
Q3 12:01
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 11:30
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen and Jaden Yates for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 24
-0.6
Q3 11:16
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOOD
+7.2
Q3 11:16
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.4
Q3 11:16
Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MISS 20
-1.1
Q3 11:11
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 10:58
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the MISS 27
0.0
Q3 10:18
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 15 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q3 9:58
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 46
-1.5
Q3 9:20
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 9:11
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 13 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 8:57
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-0.4
Q3 8:51
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 8:47
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete, PENALTY OU roughing passer 15 yards to the OU26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.
0.0
Q3 8:36
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 6 yds to the OU 20
0.0
Q3 7:57
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:17
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 15
0.0
Q3 6:51
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 6:36
Trinidad Chambliss run for 8 yds to the OU 7
0.0
Q3 6:01
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OU 12
-0.6
Q3 5:57
Lucas Carneiro 29 Yd Field Goal
-5.7
Q3 5:57
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 64 yds
+0.4
Q3 5:45
Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
+19.3
Q3 5:44
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 5:40
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
-8.8
Q3 5:20
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 27
+0.1
Q3 4:52
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 4:44
Oscar Bird punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 40
0.0
Q3 4:30
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 43
+8.4
Q3 3:58
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 3:33
Xavier Robinson run for 7 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 2:57
John Mateer run for 16 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST down
+2.0
Q3 2:22
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the MISS 11
0.0
Q3 1:41
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the MISS 9
0.0
Q3 1:04
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+22.1
Q3 1:04
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.3
Q3 0:55
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 9 yds to the MISS 34
-4.4
Q3 0:33
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 34
0.0
Q3 0:02
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 0:00
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds Dae'Quan Wright fumbled, recovered by MISS Dae'Quan Wright for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:55
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 43
-1.2
Q4 14:20
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 39 yds to the OU 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:58
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the OU 14
-1.6
Q4 13:15
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 13:15
-0.2
Q4 13:00
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 16
0.0
Q4 12:34
Trinidad Chambliss run for 10 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:01
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 8
0.0
Q4 11:33
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-28.7
Q4 11:33
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q4 11:11
Xavier Robinson run for 6 yds to the OU 31
+8.4
Q4 10:40
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 33
0.0
Q4 10:20
Xavier Robinson run for 8 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:45
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the OU 42
-0.4
Q4 8:58
John Mateer sacked by Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 41
-3.0
Q4 8:46
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 8:35
Grayson Miller punt for 44 yds, downed at the MISS 15
0.0
Q4 8:18
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 15
-7.0
Q4 7:47
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 5 yds to the MISS 20
-0.6
Q4 7:17
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 7:04
Oscar Bird punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 23 yds to the MISS 47 Isaiah Sategna III fumbled, recovered by MISS Ethan Fields
0.0
Q4 6:55
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 43 yds to the OU 10 for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q4 6:08
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 14
-1.3
Q4 5:45
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 16
0.0
Q4 4:44
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 20
-4.0
Q4 4:09
Lucas Carneiro 37 yd FG GOOD
-4.8
Q4 4:09
Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.6
Q4 3:58
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the OU 34
-1.5
Q4 3:33
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 2:55
John Mateer run for no gain to the 50 yard line
-3.8
Q4 2:34
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 2:28
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MISS 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
John Mateer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 37
+0.2
Q4 1:55
Xavier Robinson run for 7 yds to the MISS 30
-0.4
Q4 1:35
John Mateer pass incomplete
+0.4
Q4 1:30
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 1:22
Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the MISS 38
+3.4
Q4 1:21
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 01:21
-2.4
Q4 1:16
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 37
0.0
Q4 1:16
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 01:16
+0.2
Q4 1:16
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 01:16
0.0
Q4 1:11
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 36
0.0
Q4 1:10
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 01:10
0.0
Q4 1:03
Oscar Bird punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 17
0.0
Q4 0:59
John Mateer pass incomplete
-2.1
Q4 0:50
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 21 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:44
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 8 yds to the OU 46
0.0
Q4 0:27
John Mateer pass incomplete
+0.2
Q4 0:17
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:13
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:12
TEAM pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:12
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 00:12
0.0
Q4 0:06
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:02
John Mateer pass incomplete
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:33
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-28.7
TD · Q3 1:04
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+22.1
TD · Q3 5:45
Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
+19.3