TA&M
Texas A&M 49 at LSU 25
LSU2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 22
01
TA&M has the ball
−37
02
TA&M leading by 24
−11
03
Blowout context favors the offense
−6
04
Market gave LSU a 45% pregame chance
−2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 2 yds to the LSU 27
+3.0
Q1 14:17
Harlem Berry run for 16 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 13:43
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
+1.1
Q1 13:31
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 34
0.0
Q1 13:06
Timeout LSU, clock 13:06
-3.8
Q1 13:00
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
0.0
Q1 12:47
Grant Chadwick punt for 48 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 14 yds to the TA&M 32
-0.3
Q1 12:17
Rueben Owens II run for 2 yds to the TA&M 34
-2.2
Q1 12:07
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 13 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:34
Rueben Owens II run for 1 yd to the TA&M 48
-2.0
Q1 10:54
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin hrstrm for 11 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:23
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Nate Boerkircher
-0.4
Q1 10:10
Marcel Reed run for 41 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-13.6
Q1 10:10
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 59 yds , Barion Brown return for 20 yds to the LSU 26
+1.2
Q1 9:55
Harlem Berry run for 5 yds to the LSU 31
+1.6
Q1 9:16
Harlem Berry run for 6 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q1 8:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 8:04
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 3 yds to the TA&M 49
+1.3
Q1 7:34
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 7 yds to the TA&M 42 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 7:25
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 8 yds to the TA&M 34
+0.6
Q1 6:26
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Brown, Barion, PENALTY TA&M pass interference (Ricks, Dezz) 15 yards to the TA&M19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.
+1.5
Q1 6:12
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 14 yds to the TA&M 5 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:38
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 5 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+15.4
Q1 5:38
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds , Terry Bussey return for 25 yds to the TA&M 25
-2.5
Q1 5:24
Jamarion Morrow run for 12 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST down
-3.8
Q1 4:49
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Jamarion Morrow
0.0
Q1 4:38
Marcel Reed run for 2 yds to the TA&M 39
0.0
Q1 3:51
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 17 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q1 3:08
Marcel Reed run for 14 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down
-1.3
Q1 2:26
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the LSU 30
-0.5
Q1 1:59
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 12 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:28
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver
0.0
Q1 1:14
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the LSU 15
0.0
Q1 0:40
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 15 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-14.0
Q1 0:40
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.2
Q1 0:35
Harlem Berry run for 2 yds to the LSU 27
+5.1
Q1 0:00
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 14 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:55
Harlem Berry run for 4 yds to the LSU 45
+0.6
Q2 14:22
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 39
0.0
Q2 13:44
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
-0.5
Q2 13:38
Grant Chadwick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KC Concepcion at the TA&M 16
0.0
Q2 13:26
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 11 yds to the TA&M 27 for a 1ST down
-5.1
Q2 13:15
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the TA&M 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TA&M Rueben Owens II
0.0
Q2 12:23
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver
0.0
Q2 12:18
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Nate Boerkircher
0.0
Q2 12:13
Team Safety
+4.2
Q2 12:07
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 67 yds , Barion Brown return for 18 yds to the LSU 31
0.0
Q2 12:00
Harlem Berry run for 3 yds to the LSU 34
+7.0
Q2 11:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
-0.2
Q2 11:13
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 3 yds to the LSU 37
+0.1
Q2 10:34
Grant Chadwick punt for 38 yds, downed at the TA&M 25
-0.1
Q2 10:00
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin hrstrm for 21 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST down
-8.1
Q2 9:51
Jamarion Morrow run for 3 yds to the TA&M 49
-1.2
Q2 9:18
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Chase Bisontis) to the TA&M 44
0.0
Q2 8:58
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 5 yds to the TA&M 49
0.0
Q2 8:14
Marcel Reed pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 47 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q2 7:45
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC Concepcion
-0.1
Q2 7:37
Jamarion Morrow run for 1 yd to the LSU 3
0.0
Q2 6:56
Marcel Reed pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 25 yds to the LSU 25
0.0
Q2 6:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23
+9.3
Q2 6:08
Caden Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 22
0.0
Q2 5:30
LSU Penalty, False Start (Zavion Thomas) to the LSU 17
-2.5
Q2 5:05
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 10 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Solomon Williams) to the LSU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:28
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 41 yds to the TA&M 17 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q2 4:26
Timeout Texas A&M, clock 04:26
+1.4
Q2 4:21
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Nic Anderson
0.0
Q2 4:08
Harlem Berry run for 13 yds to the TA&M 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:45
Garrett Nussmeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 7
0.0
Q2 3:09
Harlem Berry run for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos PAT MISSED)
+20.3
Q2 3:09
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 58 yds for a touchback
-1.5
Q2 2:56
Rueben Owens II run for 5 yds to the TA&M 30
-5.7
Q2 2:00
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 1:47
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 48
-2.3
Q2 1:14
Marcel Reed pass intercepted Harold Perkins Jr. return for 3 yds to the TA&M 49
+0.3
Q2 1:06
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 5 yds to the TA&M 44
+8.9
Q2 0:46
Caden Durham run for 28 yds to the TA&M 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:34
Timeout LSU, clock 00:34
+0.4
Q2 0:31
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson
0.0
Q2 0:26
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the TA&M 13
+0.4
Q2 0:25
Timeout LSU, clock 00:25
-0.4
Q2 0:23
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson
0.0
Q2 0:20
Damian Ramos 30 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
Q2 0:20
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.1
Q2 0:15
Rueben Owens II run for 15 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST down
-4.3
Q2 0:14
Timeout Texas A&M, clock 00:14
-0.9
Q2 0:00
Reed, Marcel pass complete to Owens II, Rueben for 10 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY TA&M holding (Reed-Adams, Ar'maj) 10 yards to the TA&M30, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 15:00
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 64 yds , Terry Bussey return for 43 yds to the TA&M 44
+6.3
Q3 14:55
Marcel Reed run for 14 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST down
-8.0
Q3 14:09
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Jamarion Morrow
-0.9
Q3 13:57
Marcel Reed run for 9 yds to the LSU 33
0.0
Q3 13:22
Rueben Owens II run for 3 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 12:45
Rueben Owens II run for 9 yds to the LSU 21
0.0
Q3 12:09
Mario Craver run for 10 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:46
Mario Craver run for 9 yds to the LSU 2
0.0
Q3 11:19
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Dametrious Crownover) to the LSU 7
0.0
Q3 10:53
Marcel Reed run for 2 yds to the LSU 5
+2.0
Q3 10:41
Marcel Reed run for 5 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-20.1
Q3 10:41
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 61 yds , Barion Brown return for 19 yds to the LSU 23
+1.9
Q3 10:22
Harlem Berry run for 3 yds to the LSU 26
+4.5
Q3 9:48
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
+0.3
Q3 9:33
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by DJ Hicks for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 19
0.0
Q3 8:47
Grant Chadwick punt for 60 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 79 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-20.1
Q3 8:47
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 62 yds , Barion Brown return for 12 yds to the LSU 47 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tylen Singleton) to the LSU 8
+1.4
Q3 8:15
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 5 yds to the LSU 13
-1.4
Q3 8:02
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 7:55
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:21
Zavion Thomas run for no gain to the LSU 18
-0.3
Q3 6:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson
0.0
Q3 6:37
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 8 yds to the LSU 26
0.0
Q3 5:54
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 21
-0.4
Q3 5:42
Grant Chadwick punt for 34 yds , Terry Bussey returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line Terry Bussey fumbled, recovered by TA&M Bravion Rogers , return to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q3 5:34
Marcel Reed run for 7 yds to the LSU 43
-1.2
Q3 5:15
Rueben Owens II run for 1 yd to the LSU 42
-1.0
Q3 4:07
Rueben Owens II run for 8 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 4:02
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jamarion Morrow for 24 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-7.2
Q3 4:02
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.2
Q3 3:58
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the LSU 28
+1.4
Q3 3:33
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
0.0
Q3 3:20
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 25
0.0
Q3 2:37
Grant Chadwick punt for 47 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 39 yds to the LSU 33
0.0
Q3 2:27
Marcel Reed run for 7 yds to the LSU 26
-1.6
Q3 1:45
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 6 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:06
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 15
+0.1
Q3 0:00
Amari Daniels run for 13 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:55
EJ Smith run for 1 yd to the LSU 1
-0.1
Q4 14:15
Nate Boerkircher run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-2.0
Q4 14:15
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 14:08
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 22 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q4 13:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson
0.0
Q4 13:33
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Rylan Kennedy for a loss of 16 yards to the LSU 31
0.0
Q4 12:59
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.
0.0
Q4 12:53
Grant Chadwick punt for 49 yds, fair catch by KC Concepcion at the TA&M 20
0.0
Q4 12:50
EJ Smith run for 1 yd to the TA&M 21
+0.4
Q4 11:59
EJ Smith run for 5 yds to the TA&M 26
0.0
Q4 11:14
Marcel Reed run for 2 yds to the TA&M 28
0.0
Q4 10:38
Timeout LSU, clock 10:38
-0.6
Q4 10:29
Tyler White punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20
-0.1
Q4 9:55
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 1 yd to the LSU 21
+0.2
Q4 9:40
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 23
0.0
Q4 9:07
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 3 yds to the LSU 26
0.0
Q4 8:47
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 3 yds to the LSU 29
0.0
Q4 8:38
Marcel Reed run for 4 yds to the LSU 25
-0.2
Q4 7:56
EJ Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 28
0.0
Q4 7:11
TK Norman run for 12 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 6:33
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 11
0.0
Q4 6:12
Jamarion Morrow 11 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
-1.2
Q4 6:12
Jared Zirkel kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 5:57
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by T.J. Searcy for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22
+0.9
Q4 5:14
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:00
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Marco Jones and T.J. Searcy for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 43
0.0
Q4 4:09
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 10 yds to the TA&M 47
-0.3
Q4 3:23
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the TA&M 43
0.0
Q4 3:09
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 6 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 2:41
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Barion Brown
0.0
Q4 2:30
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Jordan Lockhart for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Lockhart) to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 6 yds to the TA&M 17
+0.2
Q4 1:50
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 3 yds to the TA&M 14
-0.2
Q4 1:20
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the TA&M 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:59
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kyle Parker for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+0.4
Q4 0:59
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback
-0.4
Q4 0:51
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 23
-0.1
Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 22
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:09
Harlem Berry run for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos PAT MISSED)
+20.3
TD · Q3 10:41
Marcel Reed run for 5 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-20.1
PUNT · Q3 8:47
Grant Chadwick punt for 60 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 79 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-20.1