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TENN

Tennessee 56 at Kentucky 34

UK
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:00 · (10:09) #98 J.Ross punt 44 yards to the UK46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−19.7Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:52: (13:55) #18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:52 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +7.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:39: (12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #7 D.Miller caught at UT33, for 56 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:39, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin) — UK win probability +7.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:37: (01:41) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #4 J.Hester caught at UT00, for 3 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:37 #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin) — UK win probability +16.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: (00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at UK00, for 13 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +16.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:40: (10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UK10, for 62 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) — TENN win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32UK 4th & 10 at UK 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:00UK 4th & 2 at UK 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:52TENN 4th & 1 at UK 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−7.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12TENN 4th & 16 at TENN 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:52UK 4th & 1 at TENN 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:05UK 4th & 23 at UK 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:15UK 4th & 13 at TENN 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:56TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1271% → 71%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UT26 (#20 T.Nichols; #90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
29.1%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT39, for 14 yards to the UT40 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#6 J.Hardaway) 15 yards from UT40 to UK45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
29.2%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UK45, for 10 yards to the UK35 (#12 Q.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
29.0%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep middle to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UK00, for 35 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:41, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5829% → 29%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.1%
(13:41) Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UK34 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
29.3%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UK41 (#15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.4%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK39, for 0 yards to the UK41 (#8 C.Hood)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
29.4%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UT42Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
29.4%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #26 J.Patterson thrown to UK48 QB hurried by #27 J.PerlotteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
29.2%
(11:37) #48 A.Laros punt 42 yards to the UT17 fair catch by #23 B.Carter at UT17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1671% → 70%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
29.3%
(11:31) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at UT22, for 5 yards to the UT22 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-1
29.3%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard loss to the UT21 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-11
29.5%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 11 yards to the UT10 (#7 D.Rayner)Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 17
OWN 10
0
29.8%
(10:09) #98 J.Ross punt 44 yards to the UK46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4INT TD
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5630% → 28%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
30.0%
(10:00) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 6 yards gain to the UT48 (#13 E.Spillman; #15 E.Farooq)Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+15
30.3%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to UT15 PENALTY UK Personal Foul (#50 A.Wollschlaeger) 15 yards from UT48 to UK37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+14
29.6%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #7 D.Miller caught at UT49, for 14 yards to the UT49 (#4 T.Redmond), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
30.2%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UK43 (#13 E.Spillman) PENALTY UT Offside (#31 C.Herring) 5 yards from UT49 to UT44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
30.4%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 3 yards loss to the UT47 (#13 E.Spillman; #22 J.Telander)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+3
30.2%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at UT47, for 3 yards to the UT44 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-45
28.2%
Edrees Farooq 45 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3128% → 30%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.6%
(06:56) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK29 (#13 E.Spillman). #62 J.Burton injured on the playSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
30.0%
(06:31) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at UK25, for 71 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:19, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0570% → 70%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.6%
(06:18) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #87 M.Kitselman caught at UT24, for 4 yards to the UT29 (#24 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
29.5%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush right for 2 yards loss to the UT27 (#92 K.Saunders)Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
30.0%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #2 P.Lewis thrown to UT25Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
30.3%
(05:10) #98 J.Ross punt 47 yards to the UK26 fair catch by #9 J.Maclin at UK26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5730% → 30%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
30.1%
(05:03) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UK24 (#90 D.Bailey). #20 B.Eason injured on the playSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
30.1%
(04:45) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to UK25 QB hurried by #5 D.HobbsSimilar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+10
29.7%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #22 C.Miller caught at UK31, for 10 yards to the UK34 (#6 J.McMurray)Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
30.0%
(04:04) #48 A.Laros punt 38 yards to the UT28 fair catch by #23 B.Carter at UT28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:5770% → 75%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+47
29.7%
(04:00) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep right to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UK27, for 47 yards to the UK25 (#20 T.Nichols), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
28.9%
PENALTY UK Delay Of Game (#60 D.Gusta) 5 yards from UK25 to UK20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+6
28.8%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at UK27, for 6 yards to the UK14 (#6 J.Hardaway), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
28.8%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UK15, for 6 yards to the UK08 (#25 J.Lovett), out of bounds PENALTY UT Holding (#3 J.Van Dorselaer) 10 yards from UK08 to UK18Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 14
OPP 18
+17
28.8%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UK01 (#2 S.Greene; #9 L.Watson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.1%
(01:53) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:49 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:3326% → 26%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.0%
(01:48) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #22 C.Miller caught at UK30, for 11 yards to the UK36 (#29 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
26.3%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 1 yard loss to the UK35 (#94 N.Robinson)Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
25.9%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to UT35Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
25.5%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK38, for 23 yards loss to the UK12 fumbled by #17 H.Gilmore IV at UK43 forced by #8 C.Hood recovered by UK #9 J.Maclin at UK28 fumbled by #9 J.Maclin at UK23 forced by #23 B.Carter recovered by UT #27 J.Perlotte at UK12, End Of Play PENALTY UK UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#75 J.Braun) 6 yards from UK12 to UK06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1576% → 83%
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
24.5%
(00:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK02 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 0 yards to the UK02 (#92 K.Saunders)Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.4%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK01, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:16)Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.1%
(13:55) #18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:52 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0419% → 26%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
18.7%
(13:51) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UK39 (#8 C.Hood; #15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
19.0%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK44 (#22 J.Telander; #13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+56
26.1%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #7 D.Miller caught at UT33, for 56 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:39, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1076% → 77%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
23.9%
(12:30) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UT36 (#94 T.Gadson; #1 K.Olds)Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+19
23.6%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #5 R.Jackson caught at UK46, for 19 yards to the UK45 (#25 J.Lovett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
22.8%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK42 (#22 G.Godfrey; #25 J.Lovett)Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
22.7%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK38 (#12 Q.Scott) PENALTY UT Holding (#70 D.Sanders Jr.) 10 yards from UK42 to UT48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+1
23.0%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UT49 (#2 S.Greene; #92 K.Saunders)Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
23.0%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to UK39Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+5
23.4%
(10:19) #98 J.Ross punt 42 yards to the UK09 #9 J.Maclin return 5 yards to the UK14, out of bounds at UK14 PENALTY UK Holding (#21 N.Addison) 10 yards from UK14 to UK04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
21 plays · 96 yds · 8:2724% → 35%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
23.5%
(10:12) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK05 (#10 K.Beasley)Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+5
23.1%
(09:35) Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK10 (#19 J.Josephs)Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+5
22.8%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK15 (#13 E.Spillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
22.6%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UK32 (#10 K.Beasley; #19 J.Josephs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
22.7%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK35 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
22.9%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Hester thrown to UK43 broken up by #4 T.Redmond QB hurried by #13 E.SpillmanSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+13
22.6%
(07:02) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 J.Hester caught at UK34, for 13 yards to the UK48 (#12 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.9%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UT48 (#13 E.Spillman; #22 J.Telander) PENALTY UT Offside (#31 C.Herring) 5 yards from UK48 to UT47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 5
OPP 47
0
23.9%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 0 yards to the UT47 (#42 T.West)Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
23.7%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the UT47 (#22 J.Telander; #13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+19
23.4%
(04:34) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #26 J.Patterson caught at UT44, for 19 yards to the UT28 (#22 J.Telander; #15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
24.0%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush right for 1 yard loss to the UT29 (#18 T.Weathersby)Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+10
23.8%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep left to #7 D.Miller thrown to UT05 PENALTY UK Holding (#62 J.Burton) 10 yards from UT29 to UT39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+13
22.7%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at UT35, for 13 yards to the UT26 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
22.6%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #2 D.Dowdell caught at UT30, for 7 yards to the UT19 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+13
22.3%
(01:56) #1 K.Law rush left for 13 yards gain to the UT06 (#22 J.Telander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
23.1%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush right for 3 yards gain to the UT03 (#10 K.Beasley)Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.2%
(01:41) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #4 J.Hester caught at UT00, for 3 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:37 #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:2672% → 86%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.7%
(01:36) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UT29 (#90 M.Humphrey-Grace)Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
27.5%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT38, for 9 yards to the UT38 (#20 T.Nichols), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.6%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short middle to #14 B.Staley thrown to UK50 broken up by #12 Q.ScottSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
26.6%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #14 B.Staley caught at UT37, for 8 yards to the UT46 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
25.7%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UT49 (#7 D.Rayner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
25.8%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK47 (#6 J.Hardaway), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
25.0%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short left to #18 D.Bishop thrown to UK49Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
25.4%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short right to #0 E.Davis caught at UK40, for 10 yards to the UK37 (#1 K.Olds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
24.2%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep right to #14 B.Staley caught at UK15, for 24 yards to the UK13 (#25 J.Lovett), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
13.9%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at UK00, for 13 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.0%
(00:05) Kneel down by #8 C.Boley at UK24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4320% → 19%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #26 J.Patterson caught at UK23, for 1 yard to the UK26 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
19.7%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UK29 (#15 E.Farooq)Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+32
19.7%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at UK43, for 32 yards to the UT39 (#0 W.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.5%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the UT39 (#27 J.Perlotte; #90 D.Bailey)Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
20.8%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #9 J.Maclin caught at UT35, for 3 yards to the UT36, out of bounds at UT36 PENALTY UK Holding (#81 W.Rodriguez) 10 yards from UT39 to UT49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+6
20.0%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 6 yards gain to the UT43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-9
19.4%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at UK48, for 9 yards loss to the UK48 (#17 E.Utley)Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 23
OWN 48
0
18.8%
(11:09) #48 A.Laros punt 22 yards to the UT30, out of bounds at UT30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:1983% → 93%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.0%
(11:04) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT30, for 8 yards to the UT38 (#20 T.Nichols)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+62
6.8%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UK10, for 62 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:1311% → 8%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
10.9%
(10:39) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #7 D.Miller caught at UK35, for 15 yards to the UK40 (#6 J.McMurray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
10.8%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UT44 (#2 A.Turrentine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
11.3%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush right for 1 yard gain to the UT43 (#5 D.Hobbs)Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+9
9.8%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #26 J.Patterson caught at UT49, for 9 yards to the UT34 (#4 T.Redmond), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
10.2%
(08:16) No Huddle #1 K.Law pass incomplete deep left to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UT00Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
10.1%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV thrown to UT27Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-3
9.5%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UT37 (#90 D.Bailey)Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+55
8.4%
(07:19) #91 J.Kauwe field goal attempt from 55 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin), clock 07:15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:2295% → 99%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.2%
(07:14) Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UT40 (#3 A.Afari Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+50
4.5%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep right to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at UK15, for 50 yards to the UK10 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.0%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to UK00Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
3.9%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush left for 6 yards gain to the UK04 (#20 T.Nichols)Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
3.8%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short left to #4 M.Matthews thrown to UK00 PENALTY UK Holding (#21 N.Addison) 2 yards from UK04 to UK02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Lewis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:452% → 4%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.3%
(05:45) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK27 (#8 C.Hood)Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
1.9%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #26 J.Patterson caught at UK20, for 8 yards to the UK35 (#8 C.Hood), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.9%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Patterson thrown to UK35Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
1.8%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK36 (#12 J.Harmon)Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
1.4%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Miller thrown to UT25 PENALTY UT Pass Interference (#4 T.Redmond) 15 yards from UK36 to UT49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
1.6%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UT44 (#6 J.McMurray)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
1.5%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush right for 4 yards gain to the UT40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
1.4%
(02:34) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 2 yards gain to the UT38 (#22 J.Telander; #6 J.McMurray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.4%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the UT38 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
1.2%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UT30, for 10 yards to the UT28 (#0 W.Wright; #6 J.McMurray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
4.4%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep left to #7 D.Miller caught at UT00, for 28 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:54, 1ST DOWN #8 C.Boley pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1297% → 99%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.8%
(00:52) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard gain to the UT26 (#2 S.Greene)Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
2.8%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass incomplete short middle to #17 C.Brazzell II thrown to UT45Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+56
2.8%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep middle to #14 B.Staley caught at UK48, for 56 yards to the UK18 (#25 J.Lovett), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
2.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush right for 6 yards gain to the UK12 (#14 T.Bryant)Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+7
2.3%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UK05 (#21 N.Addison; #22 G.Godfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.6%
(13:38) Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:121% → 2%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.6%
(13:35) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #17 H.Gilmore IV caught at UK32, for 7 yards to the UK32, out of bounds at UK32Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
0.5%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UK36 (#13 E.Spillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.5%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UK38 (#13 E.Spillman)Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+18
0.4%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #81 W.Rodriguez caught at UK48, for 18 yards to the UT44 (#23 B.Carter), 1ST DOWN. #81 W.Rodriguez injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
0.4%
(11:23) Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush left for 5 yards gain to the UT39 (#17 E.Utley)Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
0.4%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UT34 (#13 E.Spillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.4%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short middle to #2 D.Dowdell thrown to UT32 QB hurried by #90 D.Bailey. #2 D.Dowdell injured on the playSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.3%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 J.Hester caught at UT34, for 0 yards to the UT34 (#4 T.Redmond)Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
0.3%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short left to #7 D.Miller thrown to UT25 PENALTY UT Pass Interference (#23 B.Carter) 11 yard from UT34 to UT23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
0.3%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Patterson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UT14 (#2 A.Turrentine)Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
0.3%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #7 D.Miller caught at UT07, for 7 yards to the UT07, out of bounds at UT07, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UT Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.3%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short left to #4 J.Hester caught at UT02, for 7 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:12 #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 59 yds · 7:3499% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.5%
(08:11) Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UT28 (#94 T.Gadson)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
1.4%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UT35 (#94 T.Gadson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.3%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush right for 5 yards gain to the UT40 (#95 J.Smith II)Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
1.0%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UT39, for 4 yards to the UT44 (#6 J.Hardaway)Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
0.9%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush left for 6 yards gain to the UT50 (#3 A.Afari Jr.; #6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
0.9%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush right for 4 yards gain to the UK46 (#18 C.Dooley)Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
0.8%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 D.Bishop rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UK39 (#60 D.Gusta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
0.7%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UK22 (#18 C.Dooley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
0.7%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush right for 7 yards gain to the UK15 (#21 N.Addison), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
0.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short left to #14 B.Staley caught at UK17, for 6 yards to the UK09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
0.5%
(01:15) Kneel down by #6 J.Aguilar at UK12 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-4
0.5%
(00:32) Kneel down by #6 J.Aguilar at UK16 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:37
(01:41) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #4 J.Hester caught at UT00, for 3 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:37 #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)
+16.5
TD · Q2 0:05
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at UK00, for 13 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-16.1
TD · Q3 10:40
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep left to #4 M.Matthews caught at UK10, for 62 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com