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AUB

Auburn 33 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:33 · (07:44) #14 H.Kaak punt 32 yards to the AUB48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense−2.0Pregame prior+4.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:36: (08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK48, for 58 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:36, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo) — ARK win probability +8.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:24: (05:31) #0 B.Russell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo) — ARK win probability +8.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:57: (00:58) #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 00:57 — ARK win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:03: (12:04) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 12:03 — AUB win probability +15.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:23: (06:27) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 06:23 — AUB win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:34ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51ARK 4th & 14 at AUB 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05AUB 4th & 11 at ARK 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:33AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:21AUB 4th & 5 at ARK 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:55ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:05AUB 4th & 13 at ARK 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−8.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57ARK 4th & 8 at AUB 9, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−14.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:03AUB 4th & 9 at ARK 9, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−13.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:23AUB 4th & 5 at ARK 29, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−15.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:42AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−3.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:06AUB 4th & 2 at ARK 19, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−3.6
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:1457% → 58%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at ARK34, for 10 yards to the ARK35 (#4 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.1%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 2 yards loss to the ARK33 (#17 X.Atkins; #0 R.Woodyard Jr.) PENALTY AUB Face Mask (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.) 15 yards from ARK35 to ARK50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
50
+11
57.3%
(14:15) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AUB39 (#17 X.Atkins; #97 B.Jamison-Travis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
57.4%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #9 O.Blake caught at AUB27, for 9 yards to the AUB30 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
57.6%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Brown thrown to AUB28 broken up by #23 J.CrawfordSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
57.5%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 0 yards to the AUB30 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.; #25 E.Winters)Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-3
57.5%
(12:38) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 3 yards loss to the AUB33 (#97 B.Jamison-Travis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3543% → 46%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
57.2%
(12:34) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB36 (#10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
57.1%
(12:04) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 0 yards to the AUB36 (#22 C.Wooden)Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+5
57.3%
(11:24) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #15 P.Howard thrown to AUB40 PENALTY ARK Offside (#10 X.Sorey) 5 yards from AUB36 to AUB41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
57.0%
(11:19) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB42 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+14
57.2%
(10:36) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ARK44 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
56.8%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 5 yards gain to the ARK39 (#95 I.Geffrard; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
56.7%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #8 C.Coleman caught at ARK35, for 4 yards to the ARK35 (#23 J.Neal)Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
56.8%
(09:12) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK33 (#0 J.Boone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
56.4%
(08:35) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #29 O.Mabson II caught at ARK34, for 10 yards to the ARK23 (#4 J.Young; #7 B.Shaw), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
53.7%
(07:58) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #8 C.Coleman caught at ARK00, for 23 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:52, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5555% → 53%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.6%
(07:50) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARK28 (#25 E.Winters)Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+41
54.5%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete deep left to #88 R.Jones caught at ARK48, for 41 yards to the AUB31 (#4 K.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.6%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep right to #18 K.Johnson thrown to AUB00Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
55.5%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AUB29 (#25 E.Winters)Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-6
54.5%
(05:49) Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 6 yards to the AUB35 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 14
OPP 35
0
52.7%
(04:59) #37 D.Bale punt 29 yards to the AUB06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 7:3847% → 53%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
53.2%
(04:51) Shotgun #1 E.Singleton Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the AUB12 (#23 J.Neal; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-3
52.8%
(04:18) Shotgun #1 E.Singleton Jr. rush right for 3 yards loss to the AUB09 (#22 C.Wooden)Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+9
53.1%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #4 M.Simmons caught at AUB17, for 9 yards to the AUB18 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
52.2%
(02:57) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 9 yards gain to the AUB27 (#13 K.Walker), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+7
51.0%
(02:17) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 7 yards gain to the AUB34 (#13 K.Walker; #23 J.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
50.6%
(01:36) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #23 J.Cobb caught at AUB32, for 11 yards to the AUB45 (#13 K.Walker; #3 L.Worth III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
49.6%
(00:57) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #87 B.Frazier caught at AUB50, for 8 yards to the ARK47 (#4 J.Young)Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+16
49.0%
(00:14) Shotgun #1 E.Singleton Jr. rush left for 16 yards gain to the ARK31, out of bounds at ARK31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
48.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK27 (#88 D.Saili; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
48.2%
(14:20) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK25 (#7 B.Shaw; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+8
48.8%
(13:36) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at ARK20, for 8 yards to the ARK17 (#4 J.Young), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
48.1%
(12:58) Shotgun #1 E.Singleton Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the ARK18, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
48.0%
(12:21) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #3 P.Thompson thrown to ARK05 QB hurried by #10 X.SoreySimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
48.4%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #3 P.Thompson thrown to ARK08 broken up by #13 K.WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
47.4%
(12:08) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 12:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:1546% → 55%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
46.1%
(11:58) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK23 (#8 K.Harris; #15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
46.1%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK29 (#96 M.Autry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
46.2%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at ARK32, for 9 yards to the ARK38 (#15 K.Faulk)Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
46.9%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK42 (#96 M.Autry; #35 D.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.1%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 0 yards to the ARK42 (#17 X.Atkins; #14 R.Pleasant)Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
54.5%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK48, for 58 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:36, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5846% → 46%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.7%
(08:36) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to AUB27 broken up by #13 K.WalkerSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
(08:31) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #1 E.Singleton Jr. thrown to AUB31 broken up by #23 J.NealSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
54.6%
(08:25) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 9 yards to the AUB16 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
54.4%
(07:44) #14 H.Kaak punt 32 yards to the AUB48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:5355% → 65%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+36
55.3%
(07:32) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete deep right to #88 R.Jones caught at AUB27, for 36 yards to the AUB12 (#8 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
56.3%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 9 yards gain to the AUB03 (#8 K.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+1
56.2%
(06:11) No Huddle #47 M.Lassiter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AUB02 (#47 M.Blocton; #0 R.Woodyard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.1%
(05:31) #0 B.Russell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8INT TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2737% → 28%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
62.7%
(05:23) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 19 yards gain to the AUB44 (#14 S.Dix Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.8%
(04:43) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 5 yards gain to the AUB49 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
60.5%
(04:11) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 10 yards gain to the ARK41 (#22 C.Wooden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
60.3%
(03:34) Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK39 (#19 S.Smalls)Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
60.3%
(02:58) Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush left for 10 yards gain to the ARK29 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
59.0%
(02:17) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 6 yards gain to the ARK23 (#4 J.Young)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
58.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARK17 (#0 J.Boone; #16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
58.3%
(01:28) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK15 (#95 I.Geffrard; #88 D.Saili)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-89
72.0%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass intercepted by #13 K.Walker at ARK11 #13 K.Walker return 89 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:2324% → 24%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
76.4%
(00:39) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AUB30 (#7 B.Shaw; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
75.2%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #4 M.Simmons caught at AUB38, for 8 yards to the AUB38 (#4 J.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
75.6%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 7 yards gain to the AUB45, out of bounds at AUB45 PENALTY AUB Holding (#52 D.Wade) 10 yards from AUB38 to AUB28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+6
76.4%
(00:07) Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AUB34 (#0 J.Boone; #9 C.Collins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:2226% → 28%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
73.7%
(14:49) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 20 yards gain to the ARK31 (#3 L.Worth III; #13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
72.8%
(14:08) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARK24 (#3 L.Worth III; #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
72.5%
(13:29) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK18 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
72.8%
(12:56) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARK16 (#23 J.Neal; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
73.1%
(12:18) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 P.Thompson caught at ARK09, for 9 yards to the ARK07 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.2%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #3 P.Thompson thrown to ARK00Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
73.3%
(11:46) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK04 (#3 L.Worth III; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
74.8%
(11:01) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 1 yard to the ARK05 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
72.1%
(10:22) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 10:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1575% → 74%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.3%
(10:19) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK28, for 5 yards to the ARK30 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
75.9%
(09:51) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #9 O.Blake caught at ARK32, for 1 yard to the ARK31 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.2%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Washington thrown to ARK40 QB hurried by #17 X.AtkinsSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
74.4%
(09:03) PENALTY ARK False Start (#9 O.Blake) 5 yards from ARK31 to ARK26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.8%
(08:55) #37 D.Bale punt 17 yards to the ARK43 blocked by #35 J.Jones, out of bounds at ARK43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:4229% → 33%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
71.4%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK37 (#16 M.Mitchell; #14 S.Dix Jr.)Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+15
70.9%
(08:17) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 15 yards gain to the ARK22 (#13 K.Walker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
69.6%
(07:38) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #87 B.Frazier caught at ARK19, for 4 yards to the ARK18 (#13 K.Walker; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
69.8%
(07:01) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARK17 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
73.1%
PENALTY AUB Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARK17 to ARK22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
73.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ARK25 (#10 X.Sorey). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 0 yards to the ARK22 (#10 X.Sorey; #97 Q.Rhodes Jr.))Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
67.4%
(05:05) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 05:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:0169% → 83%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.9%
(05:05) #4 M.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#1 C.Anthony; #17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
69.7%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARK32 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
68.8%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK36, for 11 yards to the ARK43 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
71.6%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ARK39 (#17 X.Atkins) PENALTY ARK Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+50
69.9%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete deep middle to #88 R.Jones caught at AUB18, for 50 yards to the AUB11 (#4 K.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
74.0%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 3 yards loss to the AUB14 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+5
73.9%
(01:46) Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AUB09 (#28 K.Louidor-Faustin; #24 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
72.9%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short middle to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to AUB00 broken up by #28 K.Louidor-FaustinSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
83.4%
(00:58) #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 00:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:3718% → 34%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
82.0%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 9 yards gain to the AUB27 (#4 J.Young; #13 K.Walker)Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+48
81.1%
(00:19) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #1 E.Singleton Jr. caught at ARK27, for 48 yards to the ARK25 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
77.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush right for 7 yards gain to the ARK18 (#7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+9
77.2%
(14:16) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 9 yards gain to the ARK09 (#14 S.Dix Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.5%
(13:40) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Simmons thrown to ARK00 QB hurried by #4 J.YoungSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
77.6%
(13:32) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARK06 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #9 C.Collins)Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
79.6%
(12:51) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK04 (#3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
81.5%
(12:12) PENALTY AUB False Start (#52 D.Wade) 5 yards from ARK04 to ARK09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
65.6%
(12:04) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 12:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4274% → 45%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
(12:01) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short left to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to ARK29Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.2%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 4 yards gain to the ARK29 (#1 C.Anthony)Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
74.7%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #3 C.Brown caught at ARK34, for 9 yards to the ARK38 (#23 J.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
77.6%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK42 (#17 X.Atkins; #19 S.Smith)Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
78.7%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 1 yard gain to the ARK43 (#35 D.Walker)Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-49
44.7%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #14 R.Pleasant at ARK49 #14 R.Pleasant return 49 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 PENALTY ARK Personal Foul (#55 F.Carmona) 2 yards from ARK00 to ARK01, 1ST DOWN #12 A.Daniels rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3042% → 46%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
42.3%
(09:13) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #9 O.Blake caught at ARK37, for 16 yards to the ARK41 (#15 K.Faulk), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
45.9%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #9 O.Blake caught at AUB48, for 16 yards to the AUB43 fumbled by #9 O.Blake at AUB44 forced by #17 X.Atkins recovered by AUB #19 S.Smith at AUB43 #19 S.Smith return 23 yards to the ARK34 (#3 C.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5570% → 79%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.6%
(08:33) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK30 (#22 C.Wooden; #10 X.Sorey)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
28.8%
(07:49) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush left for 1 yard gain to the ARK29 (#3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
28.8%
(07:11) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #4 M.Simmons caught at ARK33, for 0 yards to the ARK29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
21.2%
(06:27) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 06:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4427% → 26%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
26.8%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #3 C.Brown caught at ARK23, for 3 yards loss to the ARK22 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
25.0%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ARK32 (#17 X.Atkins)Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
24.5%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARK36 (#17 X.Atkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-17
25.6%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #14 R.Pleasant at AUB45 #14 R.Pleasant return 17 yards to the ARK38 (#76 E.Harris)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
12 plays · 15 yds · 3:1487% → 95%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
13.3%
(04:25) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK38 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
11.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #23 J.Cobb caught at ARK44, for 8 yards to the ARK30 (#23 J.Neal; #22 C.Wooden)Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
10.2%
(03:00) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARK29 (#95 I.Geffrard)Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
11.1%
(02:45) #23 J.Cobb rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARK27 (#22 C.Wooden; #9 C.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
6.2%
(02:07) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK25 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
6.2%
(01:56) Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARK23 (#23 J.Neal; #3 L.Worth III)Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
6.3%
(01:55) Shotgun #12 A.Daniels rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARK19 (#14 S.Dix Jr.; #7 B.Shaw)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
4.7%
(01:08) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 01:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-11
4.4%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #28 K.Louidor-Faustin at AUB43 #28 K.Louidor-Faustin return 11 yards to the ARK46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2196% → 96%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
4.5%
(00:51) Kneel down by #12 A.Daniels at ARK48 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-1
4.5%
(00:25) Kneel down by #12 A.Daniels at ARK49 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 12:03
(12:04) #38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes), clock 12:03
-15.9
FG · Q3 0:57
(00:58) #80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo), clock 00:57
+10.5
TD · Q2 5:24
(05:31) #0 B.Russell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com